Aria Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$397,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily · 963 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 963 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Bradenton, FL 34211; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $397,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Aria); Listed as new construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan-built home (Aria); Living area approximately 1,672

🏗️ New construction. The $397,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $474,848.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $398k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1164 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 963 days — a 12% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $350,231 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 963 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $474,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5220 Barnett Cir	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (-0%)	0mo	$440,000	$263	84
5197 Barnett Cir	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (-0%)	3mo	$497,000	$297	81
5191 Barnett Cir	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (-0%)	6mo	$560,000	$335	78
5703 Silverside Pine Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-1%)	7mo	$472,000	$284	75
16820 Harvest Moon Way	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+9%)	7mo	$405,000	$222	73
17616 Canopy Pl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,672 (0%)	6mo	$385,000	$230	63
5209 Barnett Cir	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,852 (+11%)	4mo	$562,500	$304	62
5187 Barnett Cir	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,852 (+11%)	6mo	$500,000	$270	60
17415 Harvest Moon Way	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,846 (+10%)	2mo	$413,000	$224	55
15953 Clear Skies Pl	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (-7%)	2mo	$375,000	$241	53
17609 Hickok Belt Loop	0.59mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,850 (+11%)	3mo	$775,000	$419	45
17744 Savory Mist Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,890 (+13%)	1mo	$615,000	$325	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-112,085
• Equity at exit: $70,801

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-170,948
• Equity at exit: $41,056

Cash invested: $132,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1164
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,756 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,490
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$594 /mo · $7,123/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$789
• Net cashflow: $-380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,238

Max offer price $419,803

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-52	-5% $-216	+0% $-380	+5% $-544	+10% $-709
Rent	-10% $-677	-5% $-529	+0% $-380	+5% $-232	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-141	-0.5pp $-260	base $-380	+0.5pp $-503	+1.0pp $-629

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,712
• Closing costs: $14,245
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5304 Grove Mill Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2056	$3,200	$1.56	25d	1	0.20mi
17220 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,800	$1.53	25d	1	0.38mi
5567 Palmer Cir #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1336	$5,500	$4.12	25d	1	0.38mi
5577 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,300	$1.47	25d	1	0.38mi
5557 Palmer Cir #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$3,500	$2.58	25d	1	0.39mi
5537 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$3,200	$2.04	25d	1	0.44mi
5558 Palmer Cir #106 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$6,000	$4.10	25d	1	0.46mi
5548 Palmer Cir #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,200	$1.62	23d	1	0.47mi
17419 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,595	$1.27	18d	1	0.49mi
5517 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1329	$4,000	$3.01	25d	1	0.50mi
17467 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$12,500	$5.56	25d	1	0.51mi
5528 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,000	$1.48	18d	1	0.51mi
5507 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1329	$2,750	$2.07	25d	1	0.52mi
15982 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$4,600	$2.94	5d	1	0.53mi
17525 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2250	$7,800	$3.47	25d	1	0.57mi
15957 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1557	$2,750	$1.77	25d	1	0.58mi
15950 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$4,500	$3.18	25d	1	0.58mi
5624 Palmer Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$4,875	$3.66	4d	1	0.58mi
16020 Sunny Day Dr Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$3,500	$2.48	25d	1	0.60mi
17605 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,500	$1.71	25d	1	0.61mi
15934 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,900	$2.05	25d	1	0.63mi
5319 White Sand Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,850	$2.01	25d	1	0.64mi
5805 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$4,250	$2.01	18d	1	0.65mi
5930 Cessna Run Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$12,500	$6.76	25d	1	0.66mi
5831 Wake Forest Run #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,995	$4.02	25d	1	0.67mi
5915 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2108	$4,800	$2.28	25d	1	0.68mi
5815 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2108	$3,500	$1.66	25d	1	0.69mi
5921 Wake Forest Run Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$3,500	$1.96	25d	1	0.69mi
5664 Palmer Cir #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$3,400	$2.51	25d	1	0.71mi
5307 Crystal Harbor Cv Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1557	$3,000	$1.93	25d	1	0.72mi
5674 Palmer Cir #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1336	$3,100	$2.32	25d	1	0.73mi
5674 Palmer Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1336	$3,050	$2.28	5d	2	0.73mi
5316 Crystal Harbor Cv Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	25d	1	0.74mi
5316 Crystal Harbor Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	23d	1	0.74mi
5710 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$4,500	$3.08	25d	1	0.77mi
15721 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1580	$6,500	$4.11	25d	1	0.78mi
6113 Cessna Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2248	$6,000	$2.67	25d	1	0.80mi
5685 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1329	$3,100	$2.33	25d	1	0.81mi
15716 Barefoot Beach Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2027	$7,500	$3.70	25d	1	0.81mi
16717 Bwana Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2248	$6,000	$2.67	25d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $397,990 Active 963 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $397,990 Active 960 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $397,990 Active 959 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $397,990 Active 958 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $397,990 Active 957 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $397,990 Active 955 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $397,990 Active 954 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $397,990 Active 952 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $397,990 Active 951 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $397,990 Active 950 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $397,990 Active 949 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $397,990 Active 945 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $397,990 Active 944 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $397,990 Active 943 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $397,990 Active 942 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,599
• − Property taxes: −$7,123
• − Insurance: −$3,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,606
• − Management: −$3,606
• − Depreciation: −$13,814
• Taxable loss: −$12,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,082
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B