Westin Plan · Holley, NY 14470

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 556 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 555 days

🏗️ New construction. The $129,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $73,586.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 4.6% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#705 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Holley Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #505 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $509 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 556 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 556 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.49%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,586
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 76.53%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
283 Sunset Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	11mo	$47,500	$33	70
291 Sunset Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	18mo	$70,000	$49	64
155 Trinity Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	13mo	$55,000	$36	62
4694 Hall Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	15mo	$170,000	$126	58
903 Cobblestone Ct	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (+11%)	12mo	$117,000	$78	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $20,341
• Equity at exit: $10,972

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $59,313
• Equity at exit: $6,362

Cash invested: $20,604 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14470

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$386
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$92 /mo · $1,104/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $644

Max offer price $73,586

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $557	-5% $532	+0% $506	+5% $481	+10% $455
Rent	-10% $405	-5% $456	+0% $506	+5% $557	+10% $608
Rate	-1.0pp $543	-0.5pp $525	base $506	+0.5pp $487	+1.0pp $468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,397
• Closing costs: $2,208
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 556 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 553 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 552 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 551 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 550 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 548 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 545 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 544 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 543 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 542 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 538 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 537 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 536 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 535 DOM
15. 2024-12-13
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,104
• − Insurance: −$368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$2,141
• Taxable income: $5,214
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,251
• After-tax cash flow: $4,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive renovations across all systems and areas, including kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, flooring, interior walls, HVAC, and landscaping. Significant value can be added through a comprehensive renovation.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No kitchen photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely outdated and in need of renovation.
• Major Bathrooms — No bathroom photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely outdated and in need of renovation.
• Major Exterior — No exterior photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely in need of exterior updates.
• Major Flooring — No flooring photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely outdated and in need of replacement.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No interior wall/paint photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely in need of fresh paint and possibly repairs.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC/mechanical photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely in need of updates or replacement.
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No landscaping/curb appeal photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely in need of landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen will attract more buyers and increase the property's value.
• Resale Bathroom renovation — Up-to-date bathrooms are essential for attracting buyers and increasing the property's value.
• Resale Exterior updates — A well-maintained exterior will enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers.
• Resale Flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the property's appearance and increase its value.
• Resale Interior paint and repairs — Fresh paint and repairs will make the interior look more appealing and increase the property's value.
• Resale HVAC/mechanical updates — A functional HVAC system will attract more buyers and increase the property's value.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape will enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No kitchen photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely outdated and in need of renovation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No bathroom photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely outdated and in need of renovation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No exterior photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely in need of exterior updates.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No flooring photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely outdated and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No interior wall/paint photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely in need of fresh paint and possibly repairs.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No HVAC/mechanical photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely in need of updates or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No landscaping/curb appeal photos provided, but based on the property type, it is likely in need of landscaping improvements.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen will attract more buyers and increase the property's value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom renovation — Up-to-date bathrooms are essential for attracting buyers and increasing the property's value. ↑
• Resale Exterior updates — A well-maintained exterior will enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the property's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Interior paint and repairs — Fresh paint and repairs will make the interior look more appealing and increase the property's value. ↑
• Resale HVAC/mechanical updates — A functional HVAC system will attract more buyers and increase the property's value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape will enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,177
• Composite: 35.13/100
• National rank: #5013
• State rank: #505 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #705
• US rank: #13281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,765

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.80%
• Current HPI: 287.9167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-12-13 Listed $129,900 Zillow