2901 Central Blvd #407 · Brownsville, TX 78520

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 1993 Fair condition Est $214k · 32% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

REDUCE PRICE !!!!!!!!!!!! unit very centrically located nice quiet place. Has a pool and resaca. Very nice 2 bed 2 baths, washer and dryer are included. Vacant and easy to show.

Key facts

• Pool
• Built 1993
• Listed 31 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Benavides El (math 23% / reading 39%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 882 students, 83% FRL); Stell Middle (math 12% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 781 students, 96% FRL); Pace Early College H S (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 1,788 students, 92% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1264 Esperanza Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,178 (-2%)	4mo	$210,000	$178	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-6,729
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $42,201
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78520

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $186	+0% $136	+5% $86	+10% $36
Rent	-10% $15	-5% $76	+0% $136	+5% $196	+10% $256
Rate	-1.0pp $209	-0.5pp $173	base $136	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
745 Media Luna Rd Unit SEVILLA Brownsville, TX	1.0	1.5	800	$1,400	$1.75	23d	1	0.09mi
745 Media Luna Rd Unit SANTANDER Brownsville, TX	1.0	1.5	800	$1,400	$1.75	46d	1	0.09mi
2901 Central Blvd Unit 202 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,400	$1.19	23d	1	0.14mi
801 Continental Dr #3 Brownsville, TX	1.0	1.0	986	$1,225	$1.24	23d	1	0.19mi
714 Continental Dr #3 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1482	$2,400	$1.62	46d	1	0.22mi
402 Champions Dr Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.5	814	$1,300	$1.60	23d	1	0.35mi
375 Media Luna Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,202	$1.28	16d	2	0.42mi
10 Country Club Rd Unit A Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	46d	1	0.42mi
11 Country Club Rd Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	0.43mi
2425 Barnard Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,165	$1.31	16d	12	0.54mi
2425 Barnard Rd Unit ujnit 1-A Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,600	$1.23	46d	1	0.54mi
2425 Barnard Rd Unit A-13 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1137	$1,250	$1.10	46d	1	0.54mi
142 Country Club Rd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,800	$1.23	46d	1	0.54mi
42 Fairway Dr Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	23d	1	0.61mi
3500 Old Alice Rd Unit 1100 H Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	46d	1	0.67mi
2393 McAllen Rd Unit D1-7 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,400	$1.35	23d	1	0.71mi
95 Poinciana Dr Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1130	$2,075	$1.84	46d	2	0.76mi
95 Poinciana Dr Brownsville, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1218	$1,500	$1.23	16d	2	0.76mi
460 Gilson Rd Unit 2 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	23d	1	0.79mi
424 Gilson Rd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,500	$1.07	46d	1	0.81mi
401 Jose Marti Blvd Brownsville, TX	1.0	1.5	711	$1,200	$1.69	23d	1	0.85mi
3055 El Paso Rd Unit H-1 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	46d	1	0.88mi
441 Jose Marti Blvd Brownsville, TX	1.0	1.5	750	$2,000	$2.67	46d	1	0.92mi
1904 Central Blvd Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$888	$0.85	46d	9	0.92mi
801 Tropical Dr Unit 3 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	46d	1	0.93mi
1405 Harvard Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	46d	1	1.05mi
1617 E Los Ebanos Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,900	$1.61	23d	1	1.10mi
2100 W San Marcelo Blvd Brownsville, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1069	$1,450	$1.36	46d	2	1.11mi
184 Stars Ave Unit 7 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,900	$1.31	23d	1	1.12mi
1618 E Los Ebanos Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,700	$1.58	46d	1	1.12mi
234 Emerald Ln Lot 4 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	23d	1	1.14mi
1604 Yale Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,800	$1.37	23d	1	1.14mi
2100 W San Marcelo Blvd Apt 185 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	23d	1	1.18mi
401 Boca Chica Blvd Unit 505 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,200	$1.04	46d	1	1.22mi
34 W Hawthorne Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	940	$1,400	$1.49	46d	1	1.28mi
158 Garden St Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	868	$900	$1.04	46d	1	1.36mi
625 Habana St Brownsville, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	23d	1	1.42mi
1150 Quail Hollow Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1333	$1,950	$1.46	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   price $145,000
3. 2026-02-28
   price $149,900
4. 2026-02-27
   listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,463
• − Management: −$1,463
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$672
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$161
• After-tax cash flow: $1,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The property is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value. Key areas for improvement include updating fixtures, painting, and replacing flooring.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Some wear visible on interior walls.
• Minor Appliances — Appliances appear new, but could be replaced for a fresh look.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Replace dated fixtures in bathrooms — Updating fixtures can improve both resale and rental value.
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more appealing and increase value.
• Both Replace dated flooring in bathrooms — New flooring can significantly improve the look and feel of the bathrooms, enhancing both resale and rental appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Some wear visible on interior walls.	Minor	$500–3,000
Appliances · Appliances appear new, but could be replaced for a fresh look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Replace dated fixtures in bathrooms — Updating fixtures can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more appealing and increase value. ↑
• Both Replace dated flooring in bathrooms — New flooring can significantly improve the look and feel of the bathrooms, enhancing both resale and rental appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 64,740
• Household income: $50,116
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1800.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 44% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 88%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.91%
• Current HPI: 214.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.41%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $145,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $149,900 RGVMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $149,000 RGVMLS