108 Shadow Ridge Loop · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$125,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · Other public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1975 7,840 sqft lot $105/sqft · at area comps Est $124k · at est. $218/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath villa in the desirable Shadow Ridge community of Fairfield Bay. This low-maintenance home offers comfortable single-level living with spacious living area, and abundant natural light throughout. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and counter space and flows easily into the dining and living areas perfect for everyday living or hosting guests. Both bedrooms are extremely spacious with private full size bathrooms attached! Each bedroom has private entry as well. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this Shadow Ridge villa offers convenience, comfort, and access to all the amenities Fairfield Bay has to offer, including nearby Greers Ferry Lake, golf, hiking, and so much more!!!

Key facts

• Golf
• Access to amenities
• Private entry

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• PRIVATE FULL SIZE BATHROOMS
• PRIVATE ENTRY
• ACCESS TO AMENITIES
• NEARBY GREERS FERRY LAKE
• GOLF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $613 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $268 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-596 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $125k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.02%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,893
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 0.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $32,704
• Equity at exit: $33,347

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $92,461
• Equity at exit: $37,801

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $497/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$218
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $613

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $684	-5% $648	+0% $613	+5% $578	+10% $542
Rent	-10% $455	-5% $534	+0% $613	+5% $692	+10% $771
Rate	-1.0pp $676	-0.5pp $645	base $613	+0.5pp $581	+1.0pp $548

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	45d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $218 · $2,616/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-03-31
    price $125,000 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath villa in the desirable Shadow Ridge community of Fairfield Bay. This low-maintenance home offers comfortable single-level living with spacious living area, and abundant natural light throughout. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and counter space and flows easily into the dining and living areas perfect for everyday living or hosting guests. Both bedrooms are extremely spacious with private full size bathrooms attached! Each bedroom has private entry as well. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this Shadow Ridge villa offers convenience, comfort, and access to all the amenities Fairfield Bay has to offer, including nearby Greers Ferry Lake, golf, hiking, and so much more!!!

18. 2026-02-27
    listed $130,000 New Listing 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath villa in the desirable Shadow Ridge community of Fairfield Bay. This low-maintenance home offers comfortable single-level living with spacious living area, and abundant natural light throughout. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and counter space and flows easily into the dining and living areas perfect for everyday living or hosting guests. Both bedrooms are extremely spacious with private full size bathrooms attached! Each bedroom has private entry as well. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this Shadow Ridge villa offers convenience, comfort, and access to all the amenities Fairfield Bay has to offer, including nearby Greers Ferry Lake, golf, hiking, and so much more!!!

19. 2019-03-19
    soldstatus $49,900
20. 2019-03-15
    soldstatus $49,900 Sold 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Nice villa on large lot. Much updating has been done and new furniture sells with the unit. Shows very well. Great weekender or retirement home at a very reasonable price.

21. 2019-03-11
    status Under Contract 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Nice villa on large lot. Much updating has been done and new furniture sells with the unit. Shows very well. Great weekender or retirement home at a very reasonable price.

22. 2018-09-19
    price $49,900 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Nice villa on large lot. Much updating has been done and new furniture sells with the unit. Shows very well. Great weekender or retirement home at a very reasonable price.

23. 2018-06-22
    price $58,000 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Nice villa on large lot. Much updating has been done and new furniture sells with the unit. Shows very well. Great weekender or retirement home at a very reasonable price.

24. 2018-03-23
    listed $62,000 New Listing 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Nice villa on large lot. Much updating has been done and new furniture sells with the unit. Shows very well. Great weekender or retirement home at a very reasonable price.

25. 2013-11-14
    historical
26. 2013-04-10
    listed $69,900
27. 2006-09-08
    soldstatus $72,000
28. 2002-12-12
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $497 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$303/yr (+$25/mo · 60.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$497
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $5,783
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,388
• After-tax cash flow: $5,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+127.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $125,000 CARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $130,000 CARMLS
• 2019-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2019-03-15 Sold (MLS) $49,900 CARMLS
• 2019-03-11 Pending — CARMLS
• 2018-09-19 Price Changed $49,900 CARMLS
• 2018-06-22 Price Changed $58,000 CARMLS
• 2018-03-23 Listed $62,000 CARMLS
• 2013-11-14 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2013-04-10 Listed $69,900 CARMLS
• 2006-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $497 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.