1811 Beachway Ln · Odessa, FL 33556

$165,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1962 7,500 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked inside a private gated community in Odessa, this home sits in an area rich with local history. The neighborhood traces back to some of Odessa’s earliest settlers, with roots tied to one of the region’s original lumber mills that helped attract early investors and shape the area’s growth. What began as a quiet retreat for Tampa residents escaping the city has evolved into the sought after lake lifestyle that makes Odessa and Keystone so desirable today. This charming 1-bedroom, 3-bath home offers incredible potential for the right buyer ready to add their personal touch. Surrounded by a natural canopy of mature live oak trees, the community features peaceful, shaded

Key facts

• Multi-acre park
• Volleyball court
• Fishing dock

Tags

• PRIVATE GATED COMMUNITY
• PEACEFUL SHADED STREETS
• MULTI-ACRE PARK
• OPEN GREEN SPACES
• VOLLEYBALL COURT
• FISHING DOCK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.17 acres (approx. 0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: Has HOA with annual fee of $600 (monthly equivalent $50); association approval required; Community has street lights; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water source; Septic tank sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; Faces Northwest; Homestead property
• Construction: Other construction materials; Shingle roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation; Estimated living area about 1,040 sq ft
• Exterior features: Dirt and gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating reported; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable interior features reported
• Laundry & utility: Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $166k).
• Recommended offer: $156k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.3% in Odessa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#389 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 465 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($150k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $166k implies a 269% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,946 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.96%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $394,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1907 Beachway Ln	0.09mi	2/1.0	884 (-15%)	18mo	$335,000	$379	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-714
• Equity at exit: $24,736

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $18,181
• Equity at exit: $14,344

Cash invested: $46,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33556

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$870
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $698/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,326

Max offer price $165,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $595	-5% $549	+0% $502	+5% $455	+10% $408
Rent	-10% $347	-5% $424	+0% $502	+5% $579	+10% $656
Rate	-1.0pp $585	-0.5pp $544	base $502	+0.5pp $459	+1.0pp $415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,475
• Closing costs: $4,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14232 Chisholm Ln Unit 1 Odessa, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,875	$1.68	6d	1	0.65mi
1472 Long Spur Odessa, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$2,125	$2.01	0d	1	0.83mi
1470 Long Spur Odessa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,143	$2.07	0d	31	0.84mi
12609 Matisse Cir New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$2,097	$2.40	0d	17	1.38mi
15175 Integra Jct Odessa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,900	$1.96	16d	49	1.49mi
15175 Integra Jct Odessa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,826	$1.88	0d	50	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,900 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $165,900
15. 2026-03-25
    listed $194,900 Active
16. 2026-02-26
    historical
17. 2026-02-12
    status Active
18. 2026-02-05
    status Active
19. 2026-01-30
    historical
20. 2026-01-30
    historical
21. 2026-01-12
    price $225,000
22. 2025-09-05
    listed $249,999 Active
23. 1998-01-20
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $698 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,377 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$679/yr (+$57/mo · 97.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,293
• − Property taxes: −$698
• − Insurance: −$830
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,882
• − Management: −$1,882
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,826
• Taxable income: $3,516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$844
• After-tax cash flow: $5,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6856

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 35,755
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,755
• Household income: $149,722
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.75%
• Current HPI: 362.8168
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+268.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $165,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $194,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Listed $249,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $698 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.