69 Thornton Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$129,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,549 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1914 3,300 sqft lot $84/sqft · 32% below area Est $191k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 69 Thornton Ave, located in the City of Buffalo! This spacious 4-bedroom, 1 full bath single-family home offers a great opportunity for both owner-occupants and investors alike. The property features a functional layout with generous living space, along with a full basement that includes laundry—adding convenience for everyday living. Vinyl siding provides low-maintenance exterior upkeep, while the home’s solid mechanics offer peace of mind to the next owner. Currently occupied by long-term tenants, this property presents a steady income opportunity for investors or the option for future owner occupancy. Conveniently located near public transportation, shopping, and l

Key facts

• Solid mechanics
• Full basement
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• VINYL SIDING
• SOLID MECHANICS
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
• LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced air; Circuit breaker electrical
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $626 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 239 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,768/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 2873% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $130k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.65%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,424
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -32.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
243 Berkshire Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,617 (+4%)	1mo	$220,000	$136	81
84 Elmer Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,510 (-2%)	1mo	$125,000	$83	77
141 Millicent Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,620 (+5%)	2mo	$142,000	$88	66
347 Lisbon Ave	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,558 (+1%)	3mo	$180,000	$116	64
37 Elmer Ave	0.29mi	4/1.0	1,327 (-14%)	0mo	$170,000	$128	62
14 Roosevelt Ave	0.37mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (+6%)	3mo	$185,000	$113	62
353 Warwick Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,611 (+4%)	1mo	$161,800	$100	58
597 Norfolk Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,490 (-4%)	4mo	$160,000	$107	58
176 Lasalle Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,601 (+3%)	2mo	$270,000	$169	58
461 Stockbridge Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,336 (-14%)	4mo	$96,500	$72	58
157 Roosevelt Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,394 (-10%)	4mo	$200,000	$143	52
145 Highgate Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,771 (+14%)	0mo	$218,000	$123	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $14,706
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $48,055
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $429/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $976

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $699	-5% $663	+0% $626	+5% $589	+10% $552
Rent	-10% $486	-5% $556	+0% $626	+5% $696	+10% $765
Rate	-1.0pp $691	-0.5pp $659	base $626	+0.5pp $592	+1.0pp $558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1914	$1,350	$0.71	15d	1	0.40mi
189 Westminster Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1065	$1,595	$1.50	11d	1	0.43mi
263 Minnesota Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	15d	1	0.55mi
265 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	45d	1	0.60mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	25d	1	0.66mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	45d	1	0.66mi
175 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	15d	1	0.69mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,997	$2.93	3d	10	0.79mi
85 Highgate Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2193	$3,750	$1.71	15d	1	0.83mi
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	45d	1	0.87mi
65 Northrup Pl Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	15d	1	0.87mi
60 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	3d	1	1.16mi
63 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2240	$2,000	$0.89	3d	1	1.32mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,445	$1.21	15d	1	1.37mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,595	$1.34	15d	1	1.37mi
163 Carmel Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	4d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $149,900 Active 798-char remark
17. 2001-05-31
    soldstatus $58,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $429 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,312 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$883/yr (+$74/mo · 205.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$429
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $5,690
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,366
• After-tax cash flow: $6,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+120.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2001-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $58,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $429 · +63.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.