22809 Agave Grove Dr · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$345,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,425 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 2022 Fair condition 6,285 sqft lot $142/sqft · 30% below area Est $494k · 30% under $94/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a Fannie Mae Property. Seller has requested all Offers be presented online at HomePath. FannieMae. Welcome to this special home located in the master-planned, Waterfront community of Lakeside ~Step inside to a spacious, functional floorplan that offers natural Light and many outstanding updated features that include interior Paint, Ceiling fans, Stainless appliances, Flooring and recessed Lighting ~The Primary Suite is on main level and includes Double Sinks, Separate Shower, and soaking Tub ~Upstairs is a big Game room, 3 Bedrooms, including one that is Spacious with a Private Bath and Walk-in Closet. Relax under the Covered Patio with Beautiful View of the Hills-no Neighbor directly behind-backs to Greenspace. The Resort-Style Amenity center has much to offer-Pool, Trails, Lake Travis Access, Playground, Pavillion and Volleyball Court. Check It Out!

Key facts

• Backs to greenspace
• Waterfront community
• Covered patio

Tags

• WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• UPDATED FEATURES
• COVERED PATIO
• BACKS TO GREENSPACE
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITY CENTER
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $345k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.2% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1100 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,670 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.04%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $493,770
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -30.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22913 Agave Grove Dr	0.06mi	4/3.5	2,395 (-1%)	3mo	$355,000	$148	90
8119 Prairie Rye Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,359 (-3%)	3mo	$435,000	$184	77
8317 Royal Elflower Rd	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,530 (+4%)	6mo	$449,900	$178	75
8109 Royal Mint Cv	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,285 (-6%)	6mo	$424,990	$186	74
7901 Tessera Pkwy	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,299 (-5%)	4mo	$649,000	$282	71
22610 Maidengrass Ln	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,240 (-8%)	3mo	$439,000	$196	70
8006 Shining Flor Run	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,261 (-7%)	4mo	$379,900	$168	68
8015 Shining Flor Run	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,261 (-7%)	6mo	$389,900	$172	67
8512 Pine Muhly Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,422 (-0%)	2mo	$524,950	$217	64
22600 Fountaingrass Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,104 (-13%)	4mo	$385,000	$183	58
22809 Golden Daisy Ln	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,103 (-13%)	6mo	$413,070	$196	52
8013 Shining Flor Run	0.32mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,078 (-14%)	3mo	$369,900	$178	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-96,908
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-136,582
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1100
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,674 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$713 /mo · $8,553/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$94
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,493

Max offer price $230,670

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-452	-5% $-550	+0% $-647	+5% $-745	+10% $-842
Rent	-10% $-858	-5% $-753	+0% $-647	+5% $-542	+10% $-436
Rate	-1.0pp $-473	-0.5pp $-559	base $-647	+0.5pp $-737	+1.0pp $-828

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22813 Agave Grove Dr Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,925	$1.18	5d	1	0.03mi
8000 Prairie Rye Dr Lago Vista, TX	5.0	2.5	2645	$2,595	$0.98	2d	1	0.08mi
7609 Turnback Ledge Trl Lago Vista, TX	4.0	3.0	2443	$2,990	$1.22	2d	1	0.40mi
22419 Red Sage Cv Meadowlakes, TX	4.0	3.0	2068	$2,800	$1.35	44d	1	0.87mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $94 · $1,128/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $345,000 Pending 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $345,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $345,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $345,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $345,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-05-14
   price $345,000 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Property. Seller has requested all Offers be presented online at HomePath. FannieMae. Welcome to this special home located in the master-planned, Waterfront community of Lakeside ~Step inside to a spacious, functional floorplan that offers natural Light and many outstanding updated features that include interior Paint, Ceiling fans, Stainless appliances, Flooring and recessed Lighting ~The Primary Suite is on main level and includes Double Sinks, Separate Shower, and soaking Tub ~Upstairs is a big Game room, 3 Bedrooms, including one that is Spacious with a Private Bath and Walk-in Closet. Relax under the Covered Patio with Beautiful View of the Hills-no Neighbor directly behind-backs to Greenspace. The Resort-Style Amenity center has much to offer-Pool, Trails, Lake Travis Access, Playground, Pavillion and Volleyball Court. Check It Out!

7. 2026-05-07
   price $365,000 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Property. Seller has requested all Offers be presented online at HomePath. FannieMae. Welcome to this special home located in the master-planned, Waterfront community of Lakeside ~Step inside to a spacious, functional floorplan that offers natural Light and many outstanding updated features that include interior Paint, Ceiling fans, Stainless appliances, Flooring and recessed Lighting ~The Primary Suite is on main level and includes Double Sinks, Separate Shower, and soaking Tub ~Upstairs is a big Game room, 3 Bedrooms, including one that is Spacious with a Private Bath and Walk-in Closet. Relax under the Covered Patio with Beautiful View of the Hills-no Neighbor directly behind-backs to Greenspace. The Resort-Style Amenity center has much to offer-Pool, Trails, Lake Travis Access, Playground, Pavillion and Volleyball Court. Check It Out!

8. 2026-04-09
   price $370,000 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Property. Seller has requested all Offers be presented online at HomePath. FannieMae. Welcome to this special home located in the master-planned, Waterfront community of Lakeside ~Step inside to a spacious, functional floorplan that offers natural Light and many outstanding updated features that include interior Paint, Ceiling fans, Stainless appliances, Flooring and recessed Lighting ~The Primary Suite is on main level and includes Double Sinks, Separate Shower, and soaking Tub ~Upstairs is a big Game room, 3 Bedrooms, including one that is Spacious with a Private Bath and Walk-in Closet. Relax under the Covered Patio with Beautiful View of the Hills-no Neighbor directly behind-backs to Greenspace. The Resort-Style Amenity center has much to offer-Pool, Trails, Lake Travis Access, Playground, Pavillion and Volleyball Court. Check It Out!

9. 2026-03-10
   price $375,000 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Property. Seller has requested all Offers be presented online at HomePath. FannieMae. Welcome to this special home located in the master-planned, Waterfront community of Lakeside ~Step inside to a spacious, functional floorplan that offers natural Light and many outstanding updated features that include interior Paint, Ceiling fans, Stainless appliances, Flooring and recessed Lighting ~The Primary Suite is on main level and includes Double Sinks, Separate Shower, and soaking Tub ~Upstairs is a big Game room, 3 Bedrooms, including one that is Spacious with a Private Bath and Walk-in Closet. Relax under the Covered Patio with Beautiful View of the Hills-no Neighbor directly behind-backs to Greenspace. The Resort-Style Amenity center has much to offer-Pool, Trails, Lake Travis Access, Playground, Pavillion and Volleyball Court. Check It Out!

10. 2026-02-27
    price $395,000 871-char remark

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Property. Seller has requested all Offers be presented online at HomePath. FannieMae. Welcome to this special home located in the master-planned, Waterfront community of Lakeside ~Step inside to a spacious, functional floorplan that offers natural Light and many outstanding updated features that include interior Paint, Ceiling fans, Stainless appliances, Flooring and recessed Lighting ~The Primary Suite is on main level and includes Double Sinks, Separate Shower, and soaking Tub ~Upstairs is a big Game room, 3 Bedrooms, including one that is Spacious with a Private Bath and Walk-in Closet. Relax under the Covered Patio with Beautiful View of the Hills-no Neighbor directly behind-backs to Greenspace. The Resort-Style Amenity center has much to offer-Pool, Trails, Lake Travis Access, Playground, Pavillion and Volleyball Court. Check It Out!

11. 2026-01-26
    price $400,000 871-char remark

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Property. Seller has requested all Offers be presented online at HomePath. FannieMae. Welcome to this special home located in the master-planned, Waterfront community of Lakeside ~Step inside to a spacious, functional floorplan that offers natural Light and many outstanding updated features that include interior Paint, Ceiling fans, Stainless appliances, Flooring and recessed Lighting ~The Primary Suite is on main level and includes Double Sinks, Separate Shower, and soaking Tub ~Upstairs is a big Game room, 3 Bedrooms, including one that is Spacious with a Private Bath and Walk-in Closet. Relax under the Covered Patio with Beautiful View of the Hills-no Neighbor directly behind-backs to Greenspace. The Resort-Style Amenity center has much to offer-Pool, Trails, Lake Travis Access, Playground, Pavillion and Volleyball Court. Check It Out!

12. 2026-01-06
    listed $410,000 Active 871-char remark

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Property. Seller has requested all Offers be presented online at HomePath. FannieMae. Welcome to this special home located in the master-planned, Waterfront community of Lakeside ~Step inside to a spacious, functional floorplan that offers natural Light and many outstanding updated features that include interior Paint, Ceiling fans, Stainless appliances, Flooring and recessed Lighting ~The Primary Suite is on main level and includes Double Sinks, Separate Shower, and soaking Tub ~Upstairs is a big Game room, 3 Bedrooms, including one that is Spacious with a Private Bath and Walk-in Closet. Relax under the Covered Patio with Beautiful View of the Hills-no Neighbor directly behind-backs to Greenspace. The Resort-Style Amenity center has much to offer-Pool, Trails, Lake Travis Access, Playground, Pavillion and Volleyball Court. Check It Out!

13. 2023-11-23
    historical $2,650
14. 2023-11-07
    historical
15. 2023-11-07
    price $2,650
16. 2023-11-04
    listed $2,850
17. 2023-10-08
    historical $2,500
18. 2023-09-07
    price $519,000
19. 2023-09-07
    price $519,000
20. 2023-09-07
    price
21. 2023-09-04
    price $2,500
22. 2023-08-23
    listed $535,000 Active
23. 2023-08-16
    listed Active
24. 2023-08-03
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,553 · $713/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,553 · $713/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$8,553
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,567
• − Management: −$2,567
• − HOA: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$13,813
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,315
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal and overall value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior brick and siding — Exposed and in poor condition
• Major Landscaping — Incomplete and overgrown

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Exterior repairs — Improves home's overall appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior brick and siding · Exposed and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Incomplete and overgrown	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Exterior repairs — Improves home's overall appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lago Vista, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $345,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $365,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $370,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $375,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $395,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $400,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $410,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-11-23 Rental Removed $2,650 Avail
• 2023-11-07 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2023-11-07 Price Changed $2,650 Avail
• 2023-11-04 Listed for Rent $2,850 Avail
• 2023-10-08 Rental Removed $2,500 Avail
• 2023-09-07 Price Changed $519,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-09-07 Price Changed $519,000 CTXMLS
• 2023-09-07 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-09-04 Price Changed $2,500 Avail
• 2023-08-23 Listed $535,000 CTXMLS
• 2023-08-16 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-08-03 Listed for Rent — Avail

Property tax history

+76.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $8,553 · -10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.