7642 Aiiden Ridge Ln · Houston, TX 77016

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 5,998 sqft lot Est $269k · 18% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

No carpet. No problem. Just move in ready! This cozy 3 bed, 2 bath home checks all the right boxes — beautiful tile flooring throughout (seriously, zero carpet!), an open concept floor plan that feels bigger than it looks, and a 2-car garage to keep your vehicles happy. At 1461 sq ft, the layout is smart, comfortable, and easy to maintain. The good-sized backyard is ready for whatever you're dreaming up — BBQs, a garden, a playset, or just some peace and quiet. Located just minutes from Hwy 59, getting around Houston has never been easier. Affordable, move-in ready, and waiting on YOU. Schedule your showing today before someone else beats you to it!

Key facts

• Minutes from hwy 59
• Tile flooring
• Good-sized backyard

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GOOD-SIZED BACKYARD
• MINUTES FROM HWY 59

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Community association (Goodwin & Company) with an annual fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry on a 2020-built home; Fronting direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 2020; Brick and cement siding exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 11); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-252 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,818/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,420 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,824
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6702 Leedale St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-0%)	2mo	$139,900	$96	83
7726 Spinet St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-0%)	3mo	$150,000	$103	80
7450 Ida Wells Forest Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,645 (+13%)	2mo	$220,000	$134	68
10643 Red Orchid Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (-4%)	2mo	$240,000	$170	68
7706 Tully Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	2mo	$300,000	$188	68
6302 Hanley Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	1mo	$189,999	$132	67
10703 Lavender Cotton Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-4%)	3mo	$258,365	$184	67
10315 Vinca Minor Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-3%)	1mo	$276,240	$196	62
7902 Elowen Grove Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-3%)	2mo	$277,290	$196	61
7904 Cassie Pine Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-3%)	0mo	$281,040	$199	61
7914 Cassie Pine Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,401 (-4%)	0mo	$274,290	$196	58
11151 Spottswood Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,283 (-12%)	1mo	$99,900	$78	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $79,332
• Equity at exit: $176,940

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $234,604
• Equity at exit: $361,008

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,818 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$401 /mo · $4,812/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,137

Max offer price $175,420

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-128	-5% $-190	+0% $-252	+5% $-315	+10% $-377
Rent	-10% $-396	-5% $-324	+0% $-252	+5% $-181	+10% $-109
Rate	-1.0pp $-142	-0.5pp $-196	base $-252	+0.5pp $-309	+1.0pp $-367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	20d	1	0.09mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	0.33mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	0.39mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	7d	1	0.45mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	0.53mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	9d	1	0.55mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	26d	1	0.58mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.62mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	15d	1	0.63mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	45d	1	0.73mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	18d	1	0.74mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	45d	1	0.74mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	24d	1	0.82mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	45d	1	0.97mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.09mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	1.13mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	9d	1	1.15mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	45d	1	1.17mi
11435 Raincove Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,345	$1.34	5d	1	1.21mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	1.32mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	26d	1	1.35mi
11610 Danford Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	1.35mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	16d	1	1.35mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	16d	1	1.35mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	26d	1	1.35mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	45d	1	1.37mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	22d	1	1.37mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	45d	1	1.43mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	45d	1	1.43mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	45d	1	1.43mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	3d	5	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 658-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $220,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,812 · $401/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,812 · $401/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$4,812
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,745
• − Management: −$1,745
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,817
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,636
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home features modern updates and a good condition score, with minor cosmetic improvements needed to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Modernize and improve airflow
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernize and improve lighting

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Modernize and improve airflow ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernize and improve lighting ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $220,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+41.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,812 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.