191 Dartmouth Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1990 3,999 sqft lot $387/mo HOA · 20% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS HOME HAS A LRGE LIVING ROOM OPEN CONCEPT, WALKIN CLOSET BOTH BR, JACUZZI IN MASTER BATH, VIEW OF GOLF COURSE, NICE GARAGE, LONG DRIVEWAY. COMPLETLY FURNISHED JUST BRING TOOTHBRUSH, NEW ROOF 03, AC ONLY 9 YRS OLD in a very active Senior Comm. This is located in a beautiful senior comm. which includes golf, tennis, shuffle, heated pool and jacuzzi, and good fishing lake. Million dollar clubhouse; bingo, full bar, billiards, craft room and large library. Resident owned beautiul common grounds well taken care of.

Key facts

• Finished room
• Wooden cabinets
• Storage space

Tags

• FINISHED ROOM
• GOLF COURSE
• WOODEN CABINETS
• LAUNDRY
• STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Lease restrictions apply; Homestead exemption claimed
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee required, approx. $387); Association approval required; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, gated entry, fence restrictions, cable TV; Community features include buyer approval required, deed restrictions, dog park, golf, golf carts allowed, pool, tennis courts, street lights, senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs with number limits)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space, approx. 12 x 25); Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler well
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces west
• Construction: Metal siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double-wide manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Irrigation equipment; Asphalt road access on a private maintained road; Lot dimensions roughly 50 x 80

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located inside and in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.75%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,468
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,182
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,038/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,636

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Greenview Dr #161 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	23d	1	0.68mi
3329 Aruba Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,200	$1.32	23d	1	0.99mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	14d	1	1.09mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	23d	1	1.18mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	3d	1	1.34mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	23d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $129,900
3. 2026-02-14
   listed $159,900 Active
4. 2021-04-05
   soldstatus $123,000
5. 2008-07-07
   listed $119,500
6. 2005-08-18
   soldstatus $88,000
7. 2005-08-16
   soldstatus $88,000 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   THIS HOME HAS A LRGE LIVING ROOM OPEN CONCEPT, WALKIN CLOSET BOTH BR, JACUZZI IN MASTER BATH, VIEW OF GOLF COURSE, NICE GARAGE, LONG DRIVEWAY. COMPLETLY FURNISHED JUST BRING TOOTHBRUSH, NEW ROOF 03, AC ONLY 9 YRS OLD in a very active Senior Comm. This is located in a beautiful senior comm. which includes golf, tennis, shuffle, heated pool and jacuzzi, and good fishing lake. Million dollar clubhouse; bingo, full bar, billiards, craft room and large library. Resident owned beautiul common grounds well taken care of.

8. 2005-05-02
   listed $90,000 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   THIS HOME HAS A LRGE LIVING ROOM OPEN CONCEPT, WALKIN CLOSET BOTH BR, JACUZZI IN MASTER BATH, VIEW OF GOLF COURSE, NICE GARAGE, LONG DRIVEWAY. COMPLETLY FURNISHED JUST BRING TOOTHBRUSH, NEW ROOF 03, AC ONLY 9 YRS OLD in a very active Senior Comm. This is located in a beautiful senior comm. which includes golf, tennis, shuffle, heated pool and jacuzzi, and good fishing lake. Million dollar clubhouse; bingo, full bar, billiards, craft room and large library. Resident owned beautiul common grounds well taken care of.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,038 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,038 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,038
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $1,485
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$356
• After-tax cash flow: $2,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+44.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2008-07-07 Listed $119,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-16 Sold (MLS) $88,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-02 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,038 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.