6982 Lake Almanor · Brownsville, TX 78575

$322,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,786 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful new construction in Summer Lakes subdivision, full of new and beautiful homes in one of the fastest-growing areas of Olmito, TX. This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home features a modern, clean design with high-end finishes throughout. Enjoy porcelain tile floors, quartz countertops in kitchen and bathrooms, LED lighting, and foam insulation in walls, roof, and even the garage for excellent energy efficiency. The home also includes double pane windows, a fully fenced backyard, and fresh grass installed in both the front and back. Located just minutes from the Expressway with easy access to SpaceX, LNG plants, Port of Brownsville, and the Brownsville Business District. Not in a flood zon

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Foam insulation
• Led lighting

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• HIGH END FINISHES
• PORCELAIN TILE FLOORS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LED LIGHTING
• FOAM INSULATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Located in Summer Lakes Phase III

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single Family Residence; House; 1 story; Slab foundation
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; New construction

Interior

• Bedrooms: Single-family home (bedrooms not specifically listed)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Smoke detector(s); Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $322,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,572.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $322k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Villareal El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 465 students, 78% FRL); Resaca Middle (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 857 students, 77% FRL); Los Fresnos H S (math 41% / reading 55%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,272 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 43% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $272,842 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,572
• List price: $322,000
• Delta: 7.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7122 Lake Tahoe	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,750 (-2%)	13mo	$289,000	$165	82
7026 Lake Almanor Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,757 (-2%)	15mo	$305,900	$174	82
8830 Wentz Lk	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,847 (+3%)	0mo	$305,000	$165	80
8723 Ashford	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,815 (+2%)	8mo	$289,000	$159	78
8648 Verbena Ln	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,796 (+1%)	18mo	$275,000	$153	75
8620 Verbena Ln	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,834 (+3%)	21mo	$295,000	$161	66
8879 Wentz Lk	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,917 (+7%)	6mo	$309,000	$161	65
7121 Lake Tahoe	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,927 (+8%)	20mo	$316,000	$164	63
8867 Wentz Lk	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,835 (+3%)	18mo	$320,000	$174	62
7208 Dominica Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,781 (-0%)	5mo	$280,000	$157	62
7505 Waverly Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,896 (+6%)	22mo	$290,000	$153	56
7246 Lake Shasta	0.16mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,027 (+14%)	18mo	$329,000	$162	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-43,078
• Equity at exit: $44,667

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-30,359
• Equity at exit: $25,902

Cash invested: $83,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78575

• Home prices YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,494/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,621

Max offer price $299,572

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,893
• Closing costs: $8,987
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7425 Lake Havasu Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,700	$1.51	21d	1	0.10mi
7425 Lake Havasu Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,700	$1.51	14d	1	0.10mi
7072 Lago Vista Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	3.0	2473	$3,200	$1.29	21d	1	0.47mi
7180 Dominica Dr Brownsville, TX	4.0	4.0	2287	$3,400	$1.49	21d	1	0.62mi
6654 Pino Azul Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,900	$1.33	44d	1	1.41mi
6919 Blue Spruce St Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,750	$1.21	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $322,000 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-05-17
   listed $322,000 Active 845-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,781
• − Property taxes: −$4,494
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,619
• − Management: −$2,619
• − Depreciation: −$8,715
• Taxable loss: −$3,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$956
• After-tax cash flow: $1,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This beautiful new construction home in Summer Lakes subdivision is move-in ready with modern design, high-end finishes, and excellent curb appeal. It offers a great investment opportunity with minimal maintenance and high ROI.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and energy efficiency for both buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and energy efficiency for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Fresnos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828290
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,586
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5601
• State rank: #444 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 212,132
• Population (ZIP): 4,728

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 78% Two or more races 36% White 19% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 70% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.34%
• Current HPI: 240.4582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listed $322,000 RGVMLS