578 Bellsworth Dr · Mehlville, MO 63125

$139,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,775 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1939 0.25 ac lot Est $264k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Gingerbread-Style Brick Home with Endless Potential! Step into the charm of this delightful gingerbread-style brick home, full of character and ready for your personal touch. Featuring 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a sunroom, this property offers a wonderful opportunity for homeowners, investors, or anyone looking to create their cozy space. Situated on a large 0.25± acre lot, there's plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or future improvements. The property also includes a large detached garage for additional storage and convenience. With its unique curb appeal, brick construction, and desirable lot size, this home is bursting with potential. Being sold AS IS,

Key facts

• Large lot
• Gingerbread style
• Sunroom

Tags

• GINGERBREAD STYLE
• BRICK HOME
• SUNROOM
• LARGE LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Irregular lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 2 bedrooms on the main level; 2 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms total; 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom on the upper level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $679 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 4.4% in Mehlville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#232 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forder Elem. (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #879 of 1,115 statewide, top 81%, 363 students, 52% FRL); Mehlville High School (math 26% / reading 54%, grade F, #243 of 521 statewide, top 47%, 1,440 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 22% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $140k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.80%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,475
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
502 Nannette Dr	0.32mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,832 (+3%)	6mo	$289,900	$158	64
2794 Sedan Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (-6%)	2mo	$319,900	$193	62
2957 Caspian Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,700 (-4%)	2mo	$211,000	$124	60
649 Suntide Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0	1,900 (+7%)	1mo	$283,000	$149	57
1072 Rainbow Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,715 (-3%)	3mo	$249,900	$146	56
2818 Redstone Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,669 (-6%)	3mo	$239,900	$144	52
61 Buckley Meadows Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,696 (-4%)	5mo	$279,900	$165	52
2907 Hubert Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,628 (-8%)	5mo	$234,000	$144	52
333 Pentonville Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-4%)	7mo	$235,000	$138	49
727 Paschal Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+7%)	1mo	$300,000	$158	48
19 Estes Pkwy	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,938 (+9%)	2mo	$264,900	$137	46
1030 Camelot Gardens Dr Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,587 (-11%)	3mo	$299,900	$189	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $20,610
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $73,803
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63125

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,365/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $679

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,252

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $758	-5% $718	+0% $679	+5% $639	+10% $600
Rent	-10% $512	-5% $595	+0% $679	+5% $762	+10% $846
Rate	-1.0pp $749	-0.5pp $714	base $679	+0.5pp $643	+1.0pp $606

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2628 Wessex Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,975	$1.27	20d	1	0.36mi
300 Southwark Ln Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,400	$1.09	4d	1	0.45mi
2231 Rosegarden Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1649	$2,100	$1.27	2d	1	0.60mi
9963 Meadow Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,701	$1.04	45d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $139,900 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 692-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $139,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,365 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,365 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,365
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,027
• − Management: −$2,027
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $6,310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,514
• After-tax cash flow: $6,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mehlville R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2920670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $62,254
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4995
• State rank: #126 of 324 in MO

Livability — Mehlville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #11310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mehlville, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 33,294
• Household income: $61,624
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 631.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: American 9% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.27%
• Current HPI: 234.3792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+137.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-13 Coming Soon $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $81,500 Public Records
• 1990-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records
• 1990-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,365 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.