103 Cloudberry Ln · Coupland, TX 78621

$314,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 2018 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful Spacious 4 Bed 3 Bath mobile home situated on a 1 acre of land! This well designed home features two separate living rooms, providing plenty of space for entertaining, relaxing, or accommodating a growing family. A great opportunity to enjoy country-style while living remaining conveniently close to local amenities.

Key facts

• 1 acre of land
• 1 acre lot
• Built 2018

Tags

• 1 ACRE OF LAND
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING ROOMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected; Water not available (conflicting info); Septic tank for sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Faces northwest; Resale condition
• Construction: Shingle roof; Block foundation; Year built from public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Guest house attached; Shed(s); Barbed wire fencing; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans (cooling)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Hall laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-287 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.4% in Coupland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#869 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Booker T Washington El (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,152 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 750 students, 89% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,071 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $153,557
• Equity at exit: $283,776

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $467,132
• Equity at exit: $611,974

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,951/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,674

Max offer price $264,314

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-198	+0% $-287	+5% $-376	+10% $-465
Rent	-10% $-469	-5% $-378	+0% $-287	+5% $-196	+10% $-104
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-207	base $-287	+0.5pp $-369	+1.0pp $-452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 327-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   listed $314,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,951 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,764 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,814/yr (+$151/mo · 45.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$3,951
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,218
• − Management: −$2,218
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$9,042
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,170
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coupland

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #869
• US rank: #15682

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 1,540
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,951 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.