30 Lakeview Dr · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$589,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Built 2004 10,019 sqft lot Est $620k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors Don't Miss This One - CASH ONLY, Spacious Custom Built 2200 Sq. Ft. Colonial, 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Bathrooms, 1 Half Bathroom, Eat In Kitchen, Formal Dining Room, Formal Living Room, Family Room With Fireplace, Large Primary Suite With Ensuite Bathroom and 2 Walk In Closets, Large Sitting Area On Second Level, 2 Car Garage, CAC,, Great Opportunity NO FLOOD INSURANCE REQUIRED ELEVATION CERTIFICATE CAN BE PROVIDED BY SELLER UTILITIES ARE OFF AND HOUSE NEEDS SOME LOVE CASH ONLY

Key facts

• Oversized closets
• Gas fireplace
• New appliances

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED GROUNDS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• NEW APPLIANCES
• OVERSIZED CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $589k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-962 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $419k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $392k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $392k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tangier Smith Elementary School (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,181 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 61% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $63k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $59k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$101k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($554k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $460k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $392,057 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.00%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $620,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Lakeview Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,200 (0%)	1mo	$620,000	$282	100
33 Cedar Rd	0.16mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,200 (0%)	17mo	$520,000	$236	73
145 Monroe Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,161 (-2%)	7mo	$626,000	$290	69
9 Riviera Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,000 (-9%)	15mo	$405,000	$203	51
100 Daisy Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,000 (-9%)	11mo	$580,000	$290	44
88 Monroe Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,000 (-9%)	19mo	$500,000	$250	41
275 Mckinley Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,300 (+4%)	15mo	$475,000	$207	41
77 Hemlock Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,000 (-9%)	15mo	$580,000	$290	40
96 Daisy Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,000 (-9%)	19mo	$580,000	$290	38
75 Hemlock Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,000 (-9%)	18mo	$579,999	$290	37
149 Daisy Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,921 (-13%)	19mo	$475,000	$247	28
6 Oak Pl	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (-13%)	19mo	$480,000	$251	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $259,557
• Equity at exit: $530,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $812,647
• Equity at exit: $1,144,297

Cash invested: $164,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,921 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax from tax record: −$725 /mo · $8,703/yr
• Insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$823
• Net cashflow: $-962

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,138

Max offer price $419,030

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-629	-5% $-795	+0% $-962	+5% $-1,129	+10% $-1,296
Rent	-10% $-1,272	-5% $-1,117	+0% $-962	+5% $-807	+10% $-652
Rate	-1.0pp $-666	-0.5pp $-812	base $-962	+0.5pp $-1,115	+1.0pp $-1,270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,250
• Closing costs: $17,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	45d	1	0.56mi
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	0d	1	1.30mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-09
   listed $589,000 Active
3. 2025-12-22
   soldstatus $460,000 Closed 487-char remark

   Show marketing remark (487 chars)

   Investors Don't Miss This One - CASH ONLY, Spacious Custom Built 2200 Sq. Ft. Colonial, 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Bathrooms, 1 Half Bathroom, Eat In Kitchen, Formal Dining Room, Formal Living Room, Family Room With Fireplace, Large Primary Suite With Ensuite Bathroom and 2 Walk In Closets, Large Sitting Area On Second Level, 2 Car Garage, CAC,, Great Opportunity NO FLOOD INSURANCE REQUIRED ELEVATION CERTIFICATE CAN BE PROVIDED BY SELLER UTILITIES ARE OFF AND HOUSE NEEDS SOME LOVE CASH ONLY

4. 2025-11-18
   status Pending 487-char remark

   Show marketing remark (487 chars)

   Investors Don't Miss This One - CASH ONLY, Spacious Custom Built 2200 Sq. Ft. Colonial, 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Bathrooms, 1 Half Bathroom, Eat In Kitchen, Formal Dining Room, Formal Living Room, Family Room With Fireplace, Large Primary Suite With Ensuite Bathroom and 2 Walk In Closets, Large Sitting Area On Second Level, 2 Car Garage, CAC,, Great Opportunity NO FLOOD INSURANCE REQUIRED ELEVATION CERTIFICATE CAN BE PROVIDED BY SELLER UTILITIES ARE OFF AND HOUSE NEEDS SOME LOVE CASH ONLY

5. 2025-11-10
   price $469,000 487-char remark

   Show marketing remark (487 chars)

   Investors Don't Miss This One - CASH ONLY, Spacious Custom Built 2200 Sq. Ft. Colonial, 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Bathrooms, 1 Half Bathroom, Eat In Kitchen, Formal Dining Room, Formal Living Room, Family Room With Fireplace, Large Primary Suite With Ensuite Bathroom and 2 Walk In Closets, Large Sitting Area On Second Level, 2 Car Garage, CAC,, Great Opportunity NO FLOOD INSURANCE REQUIRED ELEVATION CERTIFICATE CAN BE PROVIDED BY SELLER UTILITIES ARE OFF AND HOUSE NEEDS SOME LOVE CASH ONLY

6. 2025-10-15
   listed $449,000 Active 487-char remark

   Show marketing remark (487 chars)

   Investors Don't Miss This One - CASH ONLY, Spacious Custom Built 2200 Sq. Ft. Colonial, 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Bathrooms, 1 Half Bathroom, Eat In Kitchen, Formal Dining Room, Formal Living Room, Family Room With Fireplace, Large Primary Suite With Ensuite Bathroom and 2 Walk In Closets, Large Sitting Area On Second Level, 2 Car Garage, CAC,, Great Opportunity NO FLOOD INSURANCE REQUIRED ELEVATION CERTIFICATE CAN BE PROVIDED BY SELLER UTILITIES ARE OFF AND HOUSE NEEDS SOME LOVE CASH ONLY

7. 2021-06-03
   soldstatus $395,000
8. 2017-08-12
   soldstatus $250,000
9. 2017-06-23
   soldstatus $250,000 Closed 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Welcome Home To Your Turn Key 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath Center Hall Colonial! The Layout Features Formal Lv & Dn Rooms, Expanded Eat In Kitchen,Den W/ Gas Fplc, Master Suite W/ Private Bath & Walk In Closets,2nd & 3rd Bed Rms, & Family Room. Many Upgrades Throughout, Including Central Air,H/W Flrs,2 Car Att Garage,& Large Paver Patio. All Beautifully Set On A Fenced 100X100 Lot!, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

10. 2017-03-27
    status Under Contract 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Welcome Home To Your Turn Key 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath Center Hall Colonial! The Layout Features Formal Lv & Dn Rooms, Expanded Eat In Kitchen,Den W/ Gas Fplc, Master Suite W/ Private Bath & Walk In Closets,2nd & 3rd Bed Rms, & Family Room. Many Upgrades Throughout, Including Central Air,H/W Flrs,2 Car Att Garage,& Large Paver Patio. All Beautifully Set On A Fenced 100X100 Lot!, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

11. 2017-02-22
    listed $274,000 New 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Welcome Home To Your Turn Key 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath Center Hall Colonial! The Layout Features Formal Lv & Dn Rooms, Expanded Eat In Kitchen,Den W/ Gas Fplc, Master Suite W/ Private Bath & Walk In Closets,2nd & 3rd Bed Rms, & Family Room. Many Upgrades Throughout, Including Central Air,H/W Flrs,2 Car Att Garage,& Large Paver Patio. All Beautifully Set On A Fenced 100X100 Lot!, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,703 · $725/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,328 · $777/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 56% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,993
• − Property taxes: −$8,703
• − Insurance: −$2,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,764
• − Management: −$3,764
• − Depreciation: −$17,135
• Taxable loss: −$22,256
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,341
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+115.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $589,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Sold (MLS) $460,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $469,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-23 Sold (MLS) $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-22 Listed $274,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,703 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.