1111 E Sammy Baugh Ave · Rotan, TX 79546

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,038 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1964 0.43 ac lot Est $126k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home on an over sized lot. Wall to ceiling brick fireplace in den, U shaped kitchen with breakfast bar, nice big covered front porch and attached front entry garage, plus a carport. Buyer to verify all property data.

Key facts

• 0.43 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1964

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,123 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Rotan ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #405 of 1,141 in TX (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fisher County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.01%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,356
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
902 E Burnside St	0.31mi	3/2.0	2,221 (+9%)	1mo	$235,000	$106	70
1106 E Mcarthur St	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,112 (+4%)	15mo	$160,000	$76	65
506 E Beauregard St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,194 (+8%)	1mo	$135,000	$62	58
807 N Morris Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,248 (+10%)	9mo	$84,900	$38	48
405 E Lee St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,933 (-5%)	7mo	$110,000	$57	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $4,725
• Equity at exit: $18,750

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $26,168
• Equity at exit: $18,238

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79546

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,497/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $222	+0% $198	+5% $174	+10% $150
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $150	+0% $198	+5% $247	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $220	base $198	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-19
   listed $84,900 Active
3. 2020-07-17
   soldstatus Sold 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Spacious custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home on an over sized lot. Wall to ceiling brick fireplace in den, U shaped kitchen with breakfast bar, nice big covered front porch and attached front entry garage, plus a carport. Buyer to verify all property data.

4. 2020-07-06
   soldstatus
5. 2020-05-28
   status Pending 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Spacious custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home on an over sized lot. Wall to ceiling brick fireplace in den, U shaped kitchen with breakfast bar, nice big covered front porch and attached front entry garage, plus a carport. Buyer to verify all property data.

6. 2020-05-15
   price $63,097 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Spacious custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home on an over sized lot. Wall to ceiling brick fireplace in den, U shaped kitchen with breakfast bar, nice big covered front porch and attached front entry garage, plus a carport. Buyer to verify all property data.

7. 2020-05-12
   listed $73,625 Active 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Spacious custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick home on an over sized lot. Wall to ceiling brick fireplace in den, U shaped kitchen with breakfast bar, nice big covered front porch and attached front entry garage, plus a carport. Buyer to verify all property data.

8. 2020-04-23
   historical
9. 2020-04-08
   price $73,625
10. 2020-01-23
    listed $77,500 Active
11. 2020-01-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,497 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,497 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$3,497
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $1,233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$296
• After-tax cash flow: $2,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rotan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838040
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,634
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #6447
• State rank: #405 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Rotan

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1123
• US rank: #19812

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rotan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,662

Population outlook (Fisher County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,732 people
• By 2030: 3,677 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 3,556 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 3,469 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 3,429 · -8.1%
• By 2100: 3,196 · -14.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Fisher

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.0% · R 81.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.1pp toward R · 2008: -22.2pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+60.0 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+35.8 2008: R+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.43%
• Current HPI: 78.1423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $84,900 NTREIS
• 2020-07-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-05-15 Price Changed $63,097 NTREIS
• 2020-05-12 Listed $73,625 NTREIS
• 2020-04-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2020-04-08 Price Changed $73,625 NTREIS
• 2020-01-23 Listed $77,500 NTREIS
• 2020-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,497 · +24.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.