319 County Line Rd · Gumbranch, GA 31313

$260,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 2026 5.06 ac lot Est $251k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don’t miss out on this Charming NEW 4 bedroom / 3-bathroom home that HAS IT ALL!!! Open and inviting floor plan, elegant white cabinetry, upgraded lighting fixtures and recessed lighting. Complete modern home essentials with a comfortable layout. Double vanity in master bathroom with a tub/shower. Brand new appliances! Home has a 1-year manufacture warranty. VISIT the property today. Seller is a licensed Realtor in GA. Exterior photos enhanced for lawn purposes. Homes qualify for FHA and VA loans with a permanent foundation. * Pictures of Model Home and represent similar fixtures and color options

Key facts

• 5.06 acre lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 105 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-267/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#365 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,625 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,952
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 County Line Rd	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,001 (+1%)	12mo	$270,000	$135	80
35 / Lot 4 County Line Rd	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,001 (+1%)	12mo	$270,000	$135	80
1083 Rye Patch Rd	0.73mi	4/3.0	1,976 (0%)	8mo	$236,000	$119	60
1071 Rye Patch Rd	0.73mi	4/3.0	1,976 (0%)	8mo	$239,000	$121	59
1159 Rye Patch Rd	0.73mi	4/3.0	1,976 (0%)	8mo	$250,000	$127	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-37,938
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-10,677
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $256,778

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $68	+0% $-22	+5% $-112	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-111	+0% $-22	+5% $66	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $44	base $-22	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-04-03
   price $249,966
2. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-13
   price $249,967
4. 2026-03-11
   price $249,968
5. 2026-03-10
   price $249,968
6. 2026-03-09
   price $249,969
7. 2026-03-09
   price $249,971
8. 2026-03-09
   price $260,000
9. 2026-03-07
   price $249,972
10. 2026-03-07
    price $249,972
11. 2026-03-04
    price $249,974
12. 2026-03-03
    price $249,973
13. 2026-02-27
    price $249,976
14. 2026-02-27
    price $249,977
15. 2026-02-26
    price $249,978
16. 2026-02-26
    price $249,978
17. 2026-02-26
    price $249,979
18. 2026-02-26
    price $249,980
19. 2026-02-25
    price $249,980
20. 2026-02-25
    price $249,981
21. 2026-02-22
    price $249,981
22. 2025-12-30
    price $249,983
23. 2025-12-30
    price $249,983
24. 2025-12-19
    price $249,984
25. 2025-12-16
    price $249,985
26. 2025-12-16
    price $249,985
27. 2025-12-12
    price $249,986
28. 2025-12-12
    price $249,986
29. 2025-12-05
    price $249,990
30. 2025-11-29
    price $249,994
31. 2025-11-27
    price $249,995
32. 2025-11-21
    price $249,996
33. 2025-11-21
    price $249,997
34. 2025-11-18
    price $249,998
35. 2025-11-17
    listed $249,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,156
• − Management: −$2,156
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$4,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,125
• After-tax cash flow: $857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gumbranch

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #18664

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1693.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $249,966 HABR
• 2026-03-26 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $249,967 HABR
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $249,968 HABR
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $249,968 HABR
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $249,971 HABR
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $249,969 HABR
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $260,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $249,972 HABR
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $249,972 HABR
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $249,974 HABR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $249,973 HABR
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $249,976 HABR
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $249,977 HABR
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $249,978 HABR
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $249,978 HABR
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $249,979 HABR
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $249,980 HABR
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $249,980 HABR
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $249,981 HABR
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $249,981 HABR
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $249,983 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $249,983 HABR
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $249,984 HABR
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $249,985 HABR
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $249,985 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $249,986 HABR
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $249,986 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $249,990 HABR
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $249,994 HABR
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $249,995 HABR
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $249,996 HABR
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $249,997 HABR
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $249,998 HABR
• 2025-11-17 Listed $249,990 Hive MLS