1225 W 10th Ave #50 · Junction City, OR 97448

$85,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 263 Days on market

Built 1977 $59/sqft · 15% below area Est $101k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Double wide home in Scandia Village 55+ park. There is a large living room with dining area and built in hutch. The kitchen is open to a family room that has a slider. The primary bedroom has a full bath with a step in shower and soaker tub. The 2nd bedroom also has a bathroom. There is an indoor laundry room. The carport can fit two cars parked end to end. There are 3 storage sheds as well. Home only is being sold, land is rented through the park. Buyers must be approved by park to purchase home.

Key facts

• Built in hutch
• Dining area
• Large living room

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• BUILT IN HUTCH
• OPEN KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM
• STEP IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $656 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 2.7% in Junction City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#46 in OR, #1,184 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D.
• Junction City SD 69 (town): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #27 of 58 in OR (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $591 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.89%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,901
• List price: $85,500
• Delta: -15.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1225 W 10th Ave #53	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	4mo	$80,000	$52	85
1225 W 10th Ave #49	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$65,000	$42	82
1225 W 10th Ave #44	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	24mo	$75,000	$56	69
310 Pitney Ln #40	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+4%)	4mo	$130,000	$87	64
310 Pitney Ln #52	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	10mo	$184,500	$122	53
310 Pitney Ln #13	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,521 (+6%)	23mo	$203,500	$134	51
310 Pitney Ln #84	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,553 (+8%)	14mo	$215,000	$138	43
310 Pitney Ln #1	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	11mo	$123,500	$99	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $27,944
• Equity at exit: $12,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $78,171
• Equity at exit: $7,392

Cash invested: $23,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97448

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$448
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $942/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $712

Max offer price $85,500

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $705	-5% $680	+0% $656	+5% $632	+10% $608
Rent	-10% $534	-5% $595	+0% $656	+5% $717	+10% $778
Rate	-1.0pp $699	-0.5pp $678	base $656	+0.5pp $634	+1.0pp $611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,375
• Closing costs: $2,565
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
165 SW Kalmia St Ste 3 Junction City, OR	2.0	1.0	886	$1,295	$1.46	15d	1	0.49mi
165 SW Kalmia St Unit 4 Junction City, OR	2.0	1.0	886	$1,295	$1.46	45d	1	0.49mi
2254 W 10th Ave Unit 414-115 Junction City, OR	2.0	2.0	968	$1,599	$1.65	45d	1	0.59mi
2280 W 10th Ave Unit 414-259 Junction City, OR	2.0	2.0	968	$1,565	$1.62	15d	1	0.61mi
2272 W 10th Ave Junction City, OR	2.0	2.0	990	$1,575	$1.59	15d	1	0.68mi
29426 Dane Ln Junction City, OR	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	45d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,500 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,500 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,500 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,500 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,500 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,500 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,500 Active 252 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,500 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,500 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,500 Active 249 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,500 Active 246 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,500 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,500 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,500 Active 243 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,500 Active 242 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,500 Active 241 DOM
17. 2026-04-25
    price $85,500 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    Double wide home in Scandia Village 55+ park. There is a large living room with dining area and built in hutch. The kitchen is open to a family room that has a slider. The primary bedroom has a full bath with a step in shower and soaker tub. The 2nd bedroom also has a bathroom. There is an indoor laundry room. The carport can fit two cars parked end to end. There are 3 storage sheds as well. Home only is being sold, land is rented through the park. Buyers must be approved by park to purchase home.

18. 2026-01-23
    price $87,500 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    Double wide home in Scandia Village 55+ park. There is a large living room with dining area and built in hutch. The kitchen is open to a family room that has a slider. The primary bedroom has a full bath with a step in shower and soaker tub. The 2nd bedroom also has a bathroom. There is an indoor laundry room. The carport can fit two cars parked end to end. There are 3 storage sheds as well. Home only is being sold, land is rented through the park. Buyers must be approved by park to purchase home.

19. 2025-10-01
    listed $95,000 Active 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    Double wide home in Scandia Village 55+ park. There is a large living room with dining area and built in hutch. The kitchen is open to a family room that has a slider. The primary bedroom has a full bath with a step in shower and soaker tub. The 2nd bedroom also has a bathroom. There is an indoor laundry room. The carport can fit two cars parked end to end. There are 3 storage sheds as well. Home only is being sold, land is rented through the park. Buyers must be approved by park to purchase home.

20. 2023-03-01
    soldstatus $85,000 Closed 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Spacious inside and out, located in Scandia Village 55+ Park. Home has a covered porch as well as a carport and 3 sheds. 2 primary suites both with closets and bathrooms. One bath has a soaker tub. Living room is a combination living and dining area with a built in hutch. Family room is off the kitchen with an open feel and slider to the porch. Ramp for access on the carport side. Home only being sold, no land included. Buyer must qualify with the park to purchase home.

21. 2023-01-24
    status Pending 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Spacious inside and out, located in Scandia Village 55+ Park. Home has a covered porch as well as a carport and 3 sheds. 2 primary suites both with closets and bathrooms. One bath has a soaker tub. Living room is a combination living and dining area with a built in hutch. Family room is off the kitchen with an open feel and slider to the porch. Ramp for access on the carport side. Home only being sold, no land included. Buyer must qualify with the park to purchase home.

22. 2022-12-01
    listed $85,000 Active 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Spacious inside and out, located in Scandia Village 55+ Park. Home has a covered porch as well as a carport and 3 sheds. 2 primary suites both with closets and bathrooms. One bath has a soaker tub. Living room is a combination living and dining area with a built in hutch. Family room is off the kitchen with an open feel and slider to the porch. Ramp for access on the carport side. Home only being sold, no land included. Buyer must qualify with the park to purchase home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $942 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $942 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,789
• − Property taxes: −$942
• − Insurance: −$428
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$2,487
• Taxable income: $6,904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,657
• After-tax cash flow: $6,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Junction City SD 69
• NCES district ID: 4106930
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $50,018
• Composite: 29.05/100
• National rank: #6608
• State rank: #27 of 58 in OR

Livability — Junction City

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #1184

Category grades

Amenities B Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Junction City, OR
• Population (ZIP): 14,629

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.05%
• Current HPI: 281.1105
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $85,500 RMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $87,500 RMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $95,000 RMLS
• 2023-03-01 Sold (MLS) $85,000 RMLS
• 2023-01-24 Pending — RMLS
• 2022-12-01 Listed $85,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $942 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.