27021 N 211th Ave · Surprise, AZ 85361

$290,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Manufactured public records · 225 Days on market

Built 1972 1.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Saddle up and fall in love with this amazing horse property right across from State Land--ride out straight from your gate and hit the trails with your horses or off-road toys! The home features a 12x60 single-wide with large full-length covered patios on both sides, offering about 1,200 sq ft under roof. Inside you'll find 2 bedrooms on opposite ends and 1 full bath--perfect for privacy and comfort. Behind the home is a new RV hook up area with 35 amp. The detached 4-car carport includes big storage rooms and a mechanic's pit--ideal for projects, tools, or mechanic maintenance. Set up for 6 horses with covered stalls, enclosed tack/bunk rooms, turnout pen, mature trees, RV gate, and no HOA--this one has it all including a tortoise.

Key facts

• Enclosed tack rooms
• Turnout pen
• Covered stalls

Tags

• COZY GUEST HOUSE
• DETACHED 4-CAR CARPORT
• MECHANIC'S PIT
• COVERED STALLS
• ENCLOSED TACK ROOMS
• TURNOUT PEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-483 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (29.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (47.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (47.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,832 (47.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.14%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $127,013
• Equity at exit: $261,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $397,898
• Equity at exit: $563,406

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $680/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $-483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,150

Max offer price $204,673

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,000 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $290,000 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $290,000 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Saddle up and fall in love with this amazing horse property right across from State Land--ride out straight from your gate and hit the trails with your horses or off-road toys! The home features a 12x60 single-wide with large full-length covered patios on both sides, offering about 1,200 sq ft under roof. Inside you'll find 2 bedrooms on opposite ends and 1 full bath--perfect for privacy and comfort. Behind the home is a new RV hook up area with 35 amp. The detached 4-car carport includes big storage rooms and a mechanic's pit--ideal for projects, tools, or mechanic maintenance. Set up for 6 horses with covered stalls, enclosed tack/bunk rooms, turnout pen, mature trees, RV gate, and no HOA--this one has it all including a tortoise.

15. 2026-03-27
    price $299,000 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Saddle up and fall in love with this amazing horse property right across from State Land--ride out straight from your gate and hit the trails with your horses or off-road toys! The home features a 12x60 single-wide with large full-length covered patios on both sides, offering about 1,200 sq ft under roof. Inside you'll find 2 bedrooms on opposite ends and 1 full bath--perfect for privacy and comfort. Behind the home is a new RV hook up area with 35 amp. The detached 4-car carport includes big storage rooms and a mechanic's pit--ideal for projects, tools, or mechanic maintenance. Set up for 6 horses with covered stalls, enclosed tack/bunk rooms, turnout pen, mature trees, RV gate, and no HOA--this one has it all including a tortoise.

16. 2026-02-05
    price $305,000 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Saddle up and fall in love with this amazing horse property right across from State Land--ride out straight from your gate and hit the trails with your horses or off-road toys! The home features a 12x60 single-wide with large full-length covered patios on both sides, offering about 1,200 sq ft under roof. Inside you'll find 2 bedrooms on opposite ends and 1 full bath--perfect for privacy and comfort. Behind the home is a new RV hook up area with 35 amp. The detached 4-car carport includes big storage rooms and a mechanic's pit--ideal for projects, tools, or mechanic maintenance. Set up for 6 horses with covered stalls, enclosed tack/bunk rooms, turnout pen, mature trees, RV gate, and no HOA--this one has it all including a tortoise.

17. 2025-12-03
    price $315,000 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Saddle up and fall in love with this amazing horse property right across from State Land--ride out straight from your gate and hit the trails with your horses or off-road toys! The home features a 12x60 single-wide with large full-length covered patios on both sides, offering about 1,200 sq ft under roof. Inside you'll find 2 bedrooms on opposite ends and 1 full bath--perfect for privacy and comfort. Behind the home is a new RV hook up area with 35 amp. The detached 4-car carport includes big storage rooms and a mechanic's pit--ideal for projects, tools, or mechanic maintenance. Set up for 6 horses with covered stalls, enclosed tack/bunk rooms, turnout pen, mature trees, RV gate, and no HOA--this one has it all including a tortoise.

18. 2025-11-04
    listed $325,000 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Saddle up and fall in love with this amazing horse property right across from State Land--ride out straight from your gate and hit the trails with your horses or off-road toys! The home features a 12x60 single-wide with large full-length covered patios on both sides, offering about 1,200 sq ft under roof. Inside you'll find 2 bedrooms on opposite ends and 1 full bath--perfect for privacy and comfort. Behind the home is a new RV hook up area with 35 amp. The detached 4-car carport includes big storage rooms and a mechanic's pit--ideal for projects, tools, or mechanic maintenance. Set up for 6 horses with covered stalls, enclosed tack/bunk rooms, turnout pen, mature trees, RV gate, and no HOA--this one has it all including a tortoise.

19. 2001-06-30
    historical
20. 2000-12-10
    listed $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $680 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,914 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,234/yr (+$103/mo · 181.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$680
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$11,305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,713
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 160,031
• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+320.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $290,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $305,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2001-06-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2000-12-10 Listed $69,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $680 · -12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.