16015 Golf Club Dr · Crosby, TX 77532

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · Townhouse public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1983 2,640 sqft lot $49/sqft · 50% below area $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2-Bedroom, 2-bath townhome villa located on golf course, waiting to be enjoyed by new owner. 2-car attached garage, high vaulted ceiling in living area, kitchen with plenty of cabinets, spacious primary bedroom, and 14x14 back patio!

Key facts

• $65 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $954 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.88%
• DSCR: 3.80
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,791
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -50.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16015 Golf Club Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,332 (0%)	0mo	$65,000	$49	100
15919 Golf Club Dr #203	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+12%)	5mo	$72,000	$48	63
1500 S Diamondhead Blvd #229	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+12%)	15mo	$89,900	$60	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $47,480
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $108,698
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $954

Break-even live

Break-even rent $651

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16318 River Wood Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,946	$1.16	1d	1	0.37mi
711 Equinox St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,881	$1.04	43d	1	0.80mi
16700 Golf Club Dr Crosby, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$1,275	$1.63	1d	12	0.84mi
430 Fishhawk Way Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,863	$1.36	4d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 233-char remark

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   2-Bedroom, 2-bath townhome villa located on golf course, waiting to be enjoyed by new owner. 2-car attached garage, high vaulted ceiling in living area, kitchen with plenty of cabinets, spacious primary bedroom, and 14x14 back patio!

2. 2026-04-21
   price $65,000 233-char remark

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   2-Bedroom, 2-bath townhome villa located on golf course, waiting to be enjoyed by new owner. 2-car attached garage, high vaulted ceiling in living area, kitchen with plenty of cabinets, spacious primary bedroom, and 14x14 back patio!

3. 2026-03-04
   historical
4. 2026-03-03
   listed $75,000 Active 233-char remark

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   2-Bedroom, 2-bath townhome villa located on golf course, waiting to be enjoyed by new owner. 2-car attached garage, high vaulted ceiling in living area, kitchen with plenty of cabinets, spacious primary bedroom, and 14x14 back patio!

5. 2026-02-26
   status Active
6. 2026-02-16
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-07
   price $75,000
8. 2025-11-01
   price $84,900
9. 2025-09-26
   price $87,500
10. 2025-09-09
    price $95,200
11. 2025-09-05
    status Active
12. 2025-09-01
    status Pending
13. 2025-08-08
    price $119,000
14. 2025-07-22
    price $126,000
15. 2025-06-30
    price $133,000
16. 2025-05-26
    price $144,000
17. 2025-05-21
    price $152,000
18. 2025-05-21
    price $109,000
19. 2025-04-28
    price $152,000
20. 2025-04-27
    price $160,000
21. 2025-04-24
    price $109,000
22. 2025-03-21
    listed $160,000 Active
23. 2025-03-21
    historical
24. 2025-03-20
    listed $160,000 Active
25. 1992-08-25
    soldstatus
26. 1989-09-01
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,784
• − Management: −$1,784
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $11,118
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,668
• After-tax cash flow: $8,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $84,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $87,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $95,200 HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $126,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $133,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-26 Price Changed $144,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $152,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $109,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $152,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-27 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $109,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 1992-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,949 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.