30 Tally-ho Dr · Dover Plains, NY 12522

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 10 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition $828/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home in a 55+ community in Dover Plains. Renovated approximately 10 years ago and thoughtfully cared for since, this home offers a warm blend of comfort, character, and practical living space. Inside, you'll find an open-concept layout connecting the living room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features updated cabinetry, ample counter space, and charming farmhouse-inspired details that add personality throughout the home. Natural light fills the living spaces, while the spacious primary bedroom and second bedroom provide flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a hom

Key facts

• Parking
• Community pool
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Tally-Ho Estates association; Association amenities include clubhouse and pool; Monthly association fee of $828 covering pool service, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; Private trash collection
• Home design: Mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront; Private in-ground pool (community pool noted)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Ceiling fans; Recessed lighting; Crawl space basement; Basement present
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $130k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#818 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: commute C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dover Elementary School (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,509 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 296 students, 71% FRL); Dover Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 301 students, 68% FRL); Dover High School (math 92% / reading 74%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 467 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 38% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.99%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $41,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Whatley Ln	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-14%)	5mo	$35,000	$41	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.14×
• Total profit: $150,566
• Equity at exit: $117,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.50×
• Total profit: $382,235
• Equity at exit: $252,561

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12522

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$828
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$789
• Net cashflow: $1,243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,185

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,333	-5% $1,288	+0% $1,243	+5% $1,199	+10% $1,154
Rent	-10% $947	-5% $1,095	+0% $1,243	+5% $1,392	+10% $1,540
Rate	-1.0pp $1,309	-0.5pp $1,277	base $1,243	+0.5pp $1,210	+1.0pp $1,176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $828 · $9,936/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $130,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $130,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,609
• − Management: −$3,609
• − HOA: −$9,936
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $14,295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,431
• After-tax cash flow: $11,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home in a 55+ community offers a good condition with updates and a good curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Replace outdoor light fixtures — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Replace outdoor light fixtures — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609210
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 40.25/100
• National rank: #3768
• State rank: #433 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dover Plains

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #818
• US rank: #15806

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living B Crime A Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,074

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.50%
• Current HPI: 262.8121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $130,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid