369 B E Antler Trl · Valle, AZ 86046

$165,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily · 338 Days on market

Built 2019 10 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COOL CABIN - All steel construction provides low maintenance and is fire resistant., Self-sustaining Off-Grid, Move in ready ! Covered patio with stunning panoramic view all the way to north rim of the Grand Canyon. Up close views of Buck Hill. 10 Acres in the heart of Elk Country, only 3 miles to the Big Boquillas Ranch known for trophy elk. 1,000 W Solar System, Live TV, Instantly adaptable for generator use. 1500 Gallon rain water collection system, wood stove, refrigerator, microwave. All appliances and furniture included. $165,000 seller looking for cash. No HOAs, Build Camp, RV, ATV, Hunt unit 10. Over 140 miles of back country roads and 1M acres of hunting grounds. Cool Summers and just the right amount of snow.

Key facts

• Self-sustaining
• Off-grid
• Views east

Tags

• STEEL CONSTRUCTION
• SELF-SUSTAINING
• OFF-GRID
• 10 ACRES
• VIEWS NORTH
• VIEWS EAST

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#392 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Williams Unified District (4193) (town): math 23% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #163 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 675 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 338 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,788 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 338 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.83%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $78,032
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $239,146
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86046

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 675
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $138,078

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-72	-5% $-129	+0% $-186	+5% $-243	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-234	+0% $-186	+5% $-138	+10% $-91
Rate	-1.0pp $-103	-0.5pp $-144	base $-186	+0.5pp $-229	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 338 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 334 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 333 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 332 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 330 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 329 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 327 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 326 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 325 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 324 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 321 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 320 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 319 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 318 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 317 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 316 DOM
19. 2026-04-24
    price $165,000 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    COOL CABIN - All steel construction provides low maintenance and is fire resistant., Self-sustaining Off-Grid, Move in ready ! Covered patio with stunning panoramic view all the way to north rim of the Grand Canyon. Up close views of Buck Hill. 10 Acres in the heart of Elk Country, only 3 miles to the Big Boquillas Ranch known for trophy elk. 1,000 W Solar System, Live TV, Instantly adaptable for generator use. 1500 Gallon rain water collection system, wood stove, refrigerator, microwave. All appliances and furniture included. $165,000 seller looking for cash. No HOAs, Build Camp, RV, ATV, Hunt unit 10. Over 140 miles of back country roads and 1M acres of hunting grounds. Cool Summers and just the right amount of snow.

20. 2025-07-11
    listed $185,000 Active 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    COOL CABIN - All steel construction provides low maintenance and is fire resistant., Self-sustaining Off-Grid, Move in ready ! Covered patio with stunning panoramic view all the way to north rim of the Grand Canyon. Up close views of Buck Hill. 10 Acres in the heart of Elk Country, only 3 miles to the Big Boquillas Ranch known for trophy elk. 1,000 W Solar System, Live TV, Instantly adaptable for generator use. 1500 Gallon rain water collection system, wood stove, refrigerator, microwave. All appliances and furniture included. $165,000 seller looking for cash. No HOAs, Build Camp, RV, ATV, Hunt unit 10. Over 140 miles of back country roads and 1M acres of hunting grounds. Cool Summers and just the right amount of snow.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$5,167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,240
• After-tax cash flow: $-993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williams Unified District (4193)
• NCES district ID: 0409310
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,336
• Composite: 20.59/100
• National rank: #8553
• State rank: #163 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Valle

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #27052

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,669

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.78%
• Current HPI: 474.3252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $185,000 ARMLS