2104 Lemontree Way #1 · Antioch, CA 94509

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 822 sqft · Condo public records · 261 Days on market

Built 1969 $182/sqft · 21% below area Est $190k · 21% under $697/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BANK OWNED-Investors/homeowners welcome!Single story condo unit. Easy access to HWY 4 & schools. Priced to sell - great investment opportunity!

Key facts

• $697 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($115/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marsh Elementary (530 students, 78% FRL); Park Middle (996 students, 85% FRL); Antioch High (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,960 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 57% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 8251% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $150k implies a 328% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,012
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -21.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-27,207
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-36,786
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,072/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$697
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,069

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $52	+0% $10	+5% $-33	+10% $-75
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-73	+0% $10	+5% $92	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $48	base $10	+0.5pp $-29	+1.0pp $-69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2104 Lemontree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	822	$1,695	$2.06	45d	1	0.02mi
2106 Peppertree Way #3 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	45d	1	0.08mi
2106 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	7d	1	0.08mi
2308 Lemontree Way #4 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,695	$1.83	45d	1	0.12mi
2205 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$1,695	$1.88	17d	1	0.13mi
1608 Sycamore Dr Apt 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	7d	1	0.18mi
2416 Shadow Ln Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	635	$2,099	$3.31	1d	1	0.33mi
2201 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,922	$1.89	0d	10	0.38mi
2415 Horizon Ln #129 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,800	$2.97	45d	1	0.38mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	777	$1,917	$2.47	4d	12	0.39mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	755	$1,815	$2.40	12d	1	0.39mi
2725 Del Oro Cir Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	580	$1,795	$3.09	13d	1	0.41mi
2400 Horizon Ln #140 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	845	$1,850	$2.19	45d	1	0.42mi
619 W 17th St Unit C Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	560	$1,795	$3.21	24d	1	0.46mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1035	$2,500	$2.42	45d	1	0.46mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 18 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,800	$2.71	45d	1	0.46mi
2301 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	716	$2,180	$3.04	0d	23	0.48mi
2005 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	830	$1,850	$2.23	46d	1	0.49mi
2005 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	806	$2,054	$2.55	1d	2	0.49mi
1461 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	26d	1	0.50mi
1461 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	45d	1	0.50mi
616 1/2 W 16th St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	646	$1,950	$3.02	7d	1	0.50mi
616 1/2 W 16th St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	646	$1,950	$3.02	4d	1	0.50mi
2005 San Jose Dr Unit F130 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	830	$1,795	$2.16	7d	1	0.55mi
1600 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,564	$3.06	0d	8	0.56mi
2608 Nevada Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,450	$2.32	45d	1	0.60mi
712 O St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$1,822	$2.12	12d	1	0.60mi
400 Lawton St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	20d	1	0.61mi
400 Lawton St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,850	$2.47	1d	1	0.61mi
2500 Florida Ln Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	45d	1	0.62mi
1017 H St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,950	$2.36	26d	1	0.64mi
2201 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	612	$1,658	$2.71	1d	2	0.65mi
370 Lawton St Unit Lawton-370B Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,099	$2.21	45d	1	0.65mi
318 Lawton St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,850	$2.85	26d	1	0.68mi
318 Lawton St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,850	$2.85	46d	1	0.68mi
314 Lawton St #2 Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	637	$1,495	$2.35	7d	1	0.69mi
314 Lawton St Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	637	$1,550	$2.43	17d	1	0.69mi
313 Lawton St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,850	$2.41	26d	1	0.70mi
313 Lawton St Unit LAW-08 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,895	$2.47	45d	1	0.70mi
807 G St Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	840	$1,590	$1.89	45d	1	0.77mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $697 · $8,364/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 258 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 257 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 256 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 255 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 252 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 249 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 247 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 243 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 242 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 241 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 240 DOM
16. 2026-03-14
    historical $1,695
17. 2026-01-23
    price $1,695
18. 2026-01-21
    listed $1,795
19. 2025-10-03
    listed $149,900 Active
20. 2008-10-08
    soldstatus $35,000 Sold 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    BANK OWNED-Investors/homeowners welcome!Single story condo unit. Easy access to HWY 4 & schools. Priced to sell - great investment opportunity!

21. 2008-08-28
    historical 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    BANK OWNED-Investors/homeowners welcome!Single story condo unit. Easy access to HWY 4 & schools. Priced to sell - great investment opportunity!

22. 2008-07-23
    price $45,000 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    BANK OWNED-Investors/homeowners welcome!Single story condo unit. Easy access to HWY 4 & schools. Priced to sell - great investment opportunity!

23. 2008-07-08
    listed $55,000 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    BANK OWNED-Investors/homeowners welcome!Single story condo unit. Easy access to HWY 4 & schools. Priced to sell - great investment opportunity!

24. 2008-07-01
    historical
25. 2008-06-22
    price
26. 2008-06-18
    status
27. 2008-06-16
    historical
28. 2008-04-15
    price
29. 2008-03-08
    price
30. 2008-02-05
    listed
31. 2004-08-09
    soldstatus $156,000
32. 2004-08-02
    soldstatus $155,500
33. 2004-05-02
    historical
34. 2004-04-02
    listed $155,500
35. 2000-10-02
    soldstatus $64,000
36. 1989-01-12
    soldstatus $49,000
37. 1985-08-13
    soldstatus $47,500
38. 1977-11-01
    soldstatus $31,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,072 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,139 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$67/yr (+$6/mo · 6.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,072
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − HOA: −$8,364
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,961
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$471
• After-tax cash flow: $585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-94.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Rental Removed $1,695 BRIDGEMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $1,695 BRIDGEMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed for Rent $1,795 BRIDGEMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $149,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-10-08 Sold (MLS) $35,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-08-28 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-07-23 Price Changed $45,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-07-08 Listed $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-07-01 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-06-22 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-06-18 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-06-16 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-04-15 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-03-08 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-02-05 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-08-09 Sold (MLS) $156,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $155,500 Public Records
• 2004-05-02 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-04-02 Listed $155,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1989-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1985-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 1977-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,072 · +109.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.