533 N F Ave · Douglas, AZ 85607

$27,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1910 3,349 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Prime Property for Purchase * TLC is needed but located in Downtown Douglas, this location is filled with many opportunities. Don't miss out on this property, check it out today.

Key facts

• 3,349 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 3,349 (assessor)
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; City maintained road
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Wood frame construction; Other fencing; Other roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 possible bedroom
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (other type); Has cooling (other type)
• Interior features: Laundry details provided in remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details provided in remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($678 rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 4.3% in Douglas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#39 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, employment F.
• Douglas Unified District (4174) (town): math 9% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #209 of 249 in AZ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clawson School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #944 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 344 students, 83% FRL); Ray Borane Middle School (math 5% / reading 17%, grade F, #183 of 218 statewide, top 85%, 387 students, 92% FRL); Douglas High School (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #220 of 381 statewide, top 58%, 1,405 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $190 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $825 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $27,087 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.83%
• DSCR: 3.48
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $18,363
• Equity at exit: $4,100

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.89×
• Total profit: $45,381
• Equity at exit: $2,378

Cash invested: $7,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85607

• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$144
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $264/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$142
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $225

Max offer price $27,500

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $374	-5% $366	+0% $358	+5% $350	+10% $343
Rent	-10% $305	-5% $331	+0% $358	+5% $385	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $372	-0.5pp $365	base $358	+0.5pp $351	+1.0pp $344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,875
• Closing costs: $825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
647 E 8th St Douglas, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$600	$0.86	44d	1	0.16mi
938 E 12th St Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	731	$795	$1.09	44d	1	0.57mi
1249 E 10th St Douglas, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	44d	1	0.67mi
1955 E 8th St Apt 1 Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$775	$1.11	44d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $27,500 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $27,500 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $27,500 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $27,500 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $27,500 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $27,500 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $27,500 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $27,500 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $27,500 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    listed $27,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $264 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $264 · $22/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,540
• − Property taxes: −$264
• − Insurance: −$138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$651
• − Management: −$651
• − Depreciation: −$800
• Taxable income: $4,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$983
• After-tax cash flow: $3,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Douglas Unified District (4174)
• NCES district ID: 0402530
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $29,006
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9577
• State rank: #209 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Douglas

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #7635

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,009

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 45% White 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 85%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 74% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.92%
• Current HPI: 147.0847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $27,500 ARMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $264 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.