6131 Maple · Mountain Mesa, CA 93240

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1981 7,405 sqft lot Est $113k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is your next Fixer-upper home. Seller is selling this home As-Is and will do no repairs. All items in the home will remain with the sale. Located close to the Lake and stores, this could be updated to be a gem in the neighborhood. Two car garage and shed are located on the property as well as full fencing.

Key facts

• Shed
• Close to the lake
• Full fencing

Tags

• CLOSE TO THE LAKE
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• SHED
• FULL FENCING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $859 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,092 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.64%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,896
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6017 Maple Ave	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	3mo	$95,000	$76	77
6004 Maple Ave	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	10mo	$105,000	$84	69
6143 Mulberry Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	11mo	$145,000	$126	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $71,814
• Equity at exit: $39,028

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.29×
• Total profit: $169,015
• Equity at exit: $69,245

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,593/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $634

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $896	-5% $877	+0% $859	+5% $841	+10% $822
Rent	-10% $723	-5% $791	+0% $859	+5% $927	+10% $995
Rate	-1.0pp $892	-0.5pp $876	base $859	+0.5pp $842	+1.0pp $825

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6600 Linda Ave Mountain Mesa, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,695	$1.45	45d	1	0.52mi
6625 Park Ave Mountain Mesa, CA	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	4d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-31
   status Pending 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Here is your next Fixer-upper home. Seller is selling this home As-Is and will do no repairs. All items in the home will remain with the sale. Located close to the Lake and stores, this could be updated to be a gem in the neighborhood. Two car garage and shed are located on the property as well as full fencing.

3. 2025-03-26
   listed $65,000 Active 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Here is your next Fixer-upper home. Seller is selling this home As-Is and will do no repairs. All items in the home will remain with the sale. Located close to the Lake and stores, this could be updated to be a gem in the neighborhood. Two car garage and shed are located on the property as well as full fencing.

4. 2025-03-26
   listed $65,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Here is your next Fixer-upper home. Seller is selling this home As-Is and will do no repairs. All items in the home will remain with the sale. Located close to the Lake and stores, this could be updated to be a gem in the neighborhood. Two car garage and shed are located on the property as well as full fencing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,593 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,593 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,593
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $9,900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,376
• After-tax cash flow: $7,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Mountain Mesa

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1092
• US rank: #25418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Mesa, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-04 Pending — GEMLS
• 2025-03-31 Pending — SSMLS
• 2025-03-26 Listed $65,000 SSMLS
• 2025-03-26 Listed $65,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,593 · +50.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.