1111 Scarlet Oak Ave · Toms River, NJ 08755

$320,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,409 sqft · Townhouse · 92 Days on market

Built 1993 Good condition 435 sqft lot Garage $227/sqft · 7% below area Est $343k · 7% under $421/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath condominium in the highly desirable North Point Hollow community, featuring a newly renovated kitchen, abundant natural light, and a functional layout ideal for comfortable living. The primary bedroom offers generous closet space, while the second bedroom is perfect for guests, a home office, or family use. The full bathroom is complemented by a convenient half bath for guests. Additional highlights include a balcony, a one-car garage, a community pool, a tennis court, a playground, and a clubhouse. * All room sizes approximate and sq.

Key facts

• Tennis court
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• TENNIS COURT
• PLAYGROUND
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joseph A. Citta Elementary School (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #851 of 1,303 statewide, top 66%, 483 students, 61% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,837 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,626
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -6.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Schley Ave	0.11mi	2/1.5	1,409 (0%)	0mo	$346,500	$246	95
204 Schley Ave	0.11mi	2/1.5	1,409 (0%)	5mo	$335,000	$238	91
4103 Norma Pl	0.26mi	2/1.5	1,370 (-3%)	1mo	$340,000	$248	82
1801 Scarlet Oak Ave	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,210 (-14%)	1mo	$310,000	$256	72
706 Santa Anita Ln	0.45mi	2/1.5	1,222 (-13%)	5mo	$280,000	$229	53
2004 Meadowlands Ct	0.60mi	2/1.5	1,216 (-14%)	0mo	$282,000	$232	49
2003 Meadowlands Ct	0.60mi	2/1.5	1,216 (-14%)	3mo	$330,000	$271	47
805 Arlington Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,216 (-14%)	2mo	$370,000	$304	44
2203 Gulfstream Way	0.66mi	2/1.5	1,216 (-14%)	3mo	$299,000	$246	44
1902 Breckenridge Pl	0.55mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,216 (-14%)	5mo	$325,000	$267	39
2404 Gulfstream Way	0.68mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,216 (-14%)	1mo	$376,500	$310	35
2305 Gulfstream Way	0.66mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,216 (-14%)	3mo	$330,000	$271	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-64,825
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-72,305
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.1 mo (48%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,900 ($241/sqft)
• Median days on market: 16 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$421
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$644
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,332

Max offer price $289,837

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-98	+0% $-208	+5% $-319	+10% $-430
Rent	-10% $-451	-5% $-330	+0% $-208	+5% $-87	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $-47	-0.5pp $-127	base $-208	+0.5pp $-291	+1.0pp $-376

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
409 Schley Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1409	$2,650	$1.88	0d	1	0.17mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,200	$2.27	7d	1	0.51mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	62d	1	0.51mi
1 Vans Way Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	823	$2,625	$3.19	0d	1	0.69mi
2348 Huckleberry Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,700	$1.59	46d	1	0.89mi
803 Mississippi St #1503 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.5	1696	$3,150	$1.86	0d	1	1.09mi
100 Jumper Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1634	$2,749	$1.68	0d	28	1.22mi
1923 Whitesville Rd Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1576	$3,750	$2.38	66d	1	1.38mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 421Association amenities: Swimming pool, Basketball court, Clubhouse, Common area, Playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium (attached property)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath and 1 half bath (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator includedFireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

HOA detail $421/mo · $5,052/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $320,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $320,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-08-03
   days on market $320,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-07-31
   days on market $320,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-07-30
   days on market $320,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-07-28
   days on market $320,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-07-26
   days on market $320,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $320,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $320,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $320,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $320,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    pricedays on market $320,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $330,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $330,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $330,000 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $330,000 Active 68 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $330,000 Active 67 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $330,000 Active 66 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $330,000 Active 65 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $330,000 Active 64 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $330,000 Active 63 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $330,000 Active 62 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 60 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $330,000 Active 59 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $330,000 Active 58 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $330,000 Active 57 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 56 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 55 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 54 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $330,000 Active 53 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $330,000 Active 52 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $330,000 Active 51 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $330,000 Active 50 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $330,000 Active 49 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $330,000 Active 47 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $330,000 Active 45 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $330,000 Active 44 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $330,000 Active 41 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $330,000 Active 40 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    remarks 595-char remark
42. 2026-06-16
    listed $330,000 Active 39 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,946
• − Management: −$2,946
• − HOA: −$5,052
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$7,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,862
• After-tax cash flow: $-640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,045–$21,135 screening

This well-maintained, modern townhouse in North Point Hollow is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joseph A. Citta Elementary School F NJ #851/1,303 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Toms River Intermediate School North F NJ #265/431 Nat'l #7,937/14,009 High Toms River High School North F NJ #210/399 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 586,991 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 421Association amenities: Swimming pool, Basketball court, Clubhouse, Common area, Playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium (attached property)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath and 1 half bath (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator includedFireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $330,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $335,000 MOMLS