Dahlia Plan 2567 Plan · Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$403,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home offers a low-maintenance layout with an inviting open-concept floorplan where the kitchen, dining area and Great Room meet, perfect for seamless transitions and everyday multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away at the back of the home for optimal privacy, including a luxurious owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 149 days

🏗️ New construction. The $403,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $415,214.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $404k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (46.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (52.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (52.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.0% in Apache Junction — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 772 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $190,134 (52.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.11%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 18.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,214
• List price: $403,990
• Delta: -2.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2139 W Roselle Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	2mo	$393,990	$327	89
2125 W Roselle Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+2%)	2mo	$404,990	$329	86
2147 W Roselle Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,177 (-2%)	3mo	$399,990	$340	84
2081 W Roselle Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,275 (+6%)	2mo	$389,990	$306	81
2648 W Simone Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	0mo	$399,990	$301	59
2067 W Solstice Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	6mo	$379,990	$286	58
2776 W Sheppard Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	3mo	$414,990	$312	56
2752 W Shepperd Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	2mo	$375,990	$283	55
2773 W Shepperd Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	3mo	$422,990	$318	53
2864 W Shepperd Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	2mo	$409,990	$308	53
2638 W Sheppard Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	3mo	$379,990	$286	51
1996 W Sonrisa Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	4mo	$420,000	$316	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -46.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-159,916
• Equity at exit: $61,910

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.35×
• Total profit: $-272,812
• Equity at exit: $35,900

Cash invested: $116,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 43 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.3 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $430,490 ($335/sqft)
• Median days on market: 25 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85120

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 772
• Price-to-rent: 17.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,177
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$519 /mo · $6,228/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-1,367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,632

Max offer price $217,350

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,080	-5% $-1,224	+0% $-1,367	+5% $-1,511	+10% $-1,654
Rent	-10% $-1,518	-5% $-1,442	+0% $-1,367	+5% $-1,292	+10% $-1,217
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,158	-0.5pp $-1,262	base $-1,367	+0.5pp $-1,475	+1.0pp $-1,584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,804
• Closing costs: $12,456
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11519 E Persimmon Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,900	$1.69	49d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price available

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Plan: Dahlia Plan 2567New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,206

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $403,990 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $403,990 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $403,990 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $403,990 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $403,990 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $403,990 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $403,990 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $403,990 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $403,990 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    price $403,990 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $402,990 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $402,990 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $402,990 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-09-12
    price $402,990 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $401,990 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-09-05
    days on market $400,990 Active 131 DOM
17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $400,990 Active 130 DOM
18. 2026-09-03
    days on market $400,990 Active 129 DOM
19. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $400,990 Active 126 DOM
20. 2026-08-30
    days on market $398,990 Active 125 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $398,990 Active 124 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $398,990 Active 123 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $398,990 Active 122 DOM
24. 2026-08-26
    days on market $398,990 Active 121 DOM
25. 2026-08-25
    days on market $398,990 Active 120 DOM
26. 2026-08-24
    days on market $398,990 Active 119 DOM
27. 2026-08-23
    days on market $398,990 Active 118 DOM
28. 2026-08-22
    days on market $398,990 Active 117 DOM
29. 2026-08-21
    days on market $398,990 Active 116 DOM
30. 2026-08-20
    days on market $398,990 Active 115 DOM
31. 2026-08-19
    days on market $398,990 Active 114 DOM
32. 2026-08-18
    price $398,990 Active 113 DOM
33. 2026-08-18
    days on market $397,990 Active 113 DOM
34. 2026-08-17
    pricedays on market $397,990 Active 112 DOM
35. 2026-08-16
    days on market $396,990 Active 111 DOM
36. 2026-08-15
    days on market $396,990 Active 110 DOM
37. 2026-08-14
    days on market $396,990 Active 109 DOM
38. 2026-08-13
    days on market $396,990 Active 108 DOM
39. 2026-08-12
    days on market $396,990 Active 107 DOM
40. 2026-08-11
    days on market $396,990 Active 106 DOM
41. 2026-08-10
    days on market $396,990 Active 105 DOM
42. 2026-08-09
    days on market $396,990 Active 104 DOM
43. 2026-08-08
    days on market $396,990 Active 103 DOM
44. 2026-08-06
    days on market $396,990 Active 101 DOM
45. 2026-08-05
    days on market $396,990 Active 100 DOM
46. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $396,990 Active 99 DOM
47. 2026-08-03
    days on market $394,990 Active 98 DOM
48. 2026-07-31
    days on market $394,990 Active 95 DOM
49. 2026-07-30
    days on market $394,990 Active 94 DOM
50. 2026-07-30
    days on market $394,990 Active 93 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,258
• − Property taxes: −$6,228
• − Insurance: −$2,076
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$12,079
• Taxable loss: −$24,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,874
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a low-maintenance layout and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures throughout — Enhances safety and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 16/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Cactus Canyon Junior High F AZ #151/218 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High Apache Junction High School F AZ #267/381 Nat'l #15,534/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $57,786
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.31%
• Current HPI: 313.4666
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.50%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price available

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Plan: Dahlia Plan 2567New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,206