Dahlia Plan 2567 Plan · Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$403,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · SingleFamily · 195 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home offers a low-maintenance layout with an inviting open-concept floorplan where the kitchen, dining area and Great Room meet, perfect for seamless transitions and everyday multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away at the back of the home for optimal privacy, including a luxurious owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 194 days

🏗️ New construction. The $403,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $413,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $404k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (41.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (48.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (48.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 939 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $207,756 (48.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.63%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 16.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $413,990
• List price: $403,990
• Delta: -2.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2029 W Roselle Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+2%)	0mo	$423,990	$344	89
2139 W Roselle Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	4mo	$393,990	$327	88
2125 W Roselle Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+2%)	4mo	$404,990	$329	84
2081 W Roselle Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,275 (+6%)	3mo	$389,990	$306	80
2626 W Sylvan Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	0mo	$369,990	$278	59
2663 W Simone Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	1mo	$403,990	$304	58
2648 W Simone Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	2mo	$399,990	$301	57
2706 W Sylvan Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	0mo	$399,990	$301	57
2776 W Sheppard Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	4mo	$414,990	$312	55
2752 W Shepperd Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	3mo	$375,990	$283	54
2830 W Simone Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	1mo	$409,990	$308	53
2864 W Shepperd Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	3mo	$409,990	$308	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-150,826
• Equity at exit: $61,727

10-year hold

• IRR: -95.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.20×
• Total profit: $-254,770
• Equity at exit: $35,794

Cash invested: $115,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 74 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.5 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $424,490 ($325/sqft)
• Median days on market: 25 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85120

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 939
• Price-to-rent: 16.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,078 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,171
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$517 /mo · $6,210/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-1,220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,622

Max offer price $237,495

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-934	-5% $-1,077	+0% $-1,220	+5% $-1,363	+10% $-1,506
Rent	-10% $-1,384	-5% $-1,302	+0% $-1,220	+5% $-1,138	+10% $-1,056
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,011	-0.5pp $-1,114	base $-1,220	+0.5pp $-1,327	+1.0pp $-1,436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,498
• Closing costs: $12,420
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11519 E Persimmon Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,900	$1.69	94d	1	1.49mi
11312 E Quartet Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,967	$1.51	3d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price available

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Plan: Dahlia Plan 2567New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,206

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $403,990 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $403,990 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $403,990 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $403,990 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $403,990 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $403,990 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $403,990 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $403,990 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $403,990 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $403,990 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $403,990 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $403,990 Active 183 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $403,990 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $403,990 Active 181 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $403,990 Active 180 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $403,990 Active 179 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $403,990 Active 178 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $403,990 Active 177 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $403,990 Active 176 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $403,990 Active 175 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $403,990 Active 174 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $403,990 Active 173 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $403,990 Active 172 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $403,990 Active 171 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $403,990 Active 170 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $403,990 Active 169 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $403,990 Active 168 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $403,990 Active 167 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $403,990 Active 166 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $403,990 Active 165 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $403,990 Active 164 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $403,990 Active 163 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $403,990 Active 162 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $403,990 Active 161 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $403,990 Active 160 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $403,990 Active 159 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $403,990 Active 158 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $403,990 Active 157 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $403,990 Active 156 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $403,990 Active 155 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $403,990 Active 154 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $403,990 Active 153 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $403,990 Active 152 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $403,990 Active 151 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $403,990 Active 150 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $403,990 Active 149 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $403,990 Active 148 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $403,990 Active 147 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $403,990 Active 146 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $403,990 Active 145 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,190
• − Property taxes: −$6,210
• − Insurance: −$2,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − Depreciation: −$12,043
• Taxable loss: −$22,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,417
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a low-maintenance layout and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures throughout — Enhances safety and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 16/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Cactus Canyon Junior High F AZ #151/218 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High Apache Junction High School F AZ #267/381 Nat'l #15,534/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $57,786
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.31%
• Current HPI: 313.4666
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.50%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price available

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Plan: Dahlia Plan 2567New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,206