300 Rike Rd · Mabank, TX 75147

$227,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,677 sqft · SingleFamily · 105 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 3,920 sqft lot $135/sqft · at area comps Est $225k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom newly built house located in the heart of Mabank City. The open floor design creates a spacious atmosphere, allowing you to have your dream dining and living area. The beautiful master bathroom offers a luxurious shower and a large walk-in closet. This home also features two generously sized bedrooms, laundry room, and a private backyard. Home warranty is included. Schedule a showing today and see all this property has to offer!

Key facts

• Open floor design
• Walk-in closet
• Private backyard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR DESIGN
• MASTER BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-438/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Mabank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#446 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,954 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,579
• List price: $227,000
• Delta: 1.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 Victory Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-5%)	2mo	$174,990	$109	88
300 Paschal Rd	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-5%)	2mo	$177,990	$111	88
299 Victory Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-5%)	3mo	$184,990	$116	87
306 Paschal Rd	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-5%)	3mo	$179,990	$112	86
311 Victory Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-5%)	5mo	$192,496	$120	85
293 Victory Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-5%)	2mo	$174,990	$109	85
307 Victory Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-10%)	2mo	$182,990	$121	76
304 Paschal Rd	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-10%)	2mo	$179,909	$119	75
301 Victory Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-10%)	4mo	$184,990	$123	74
297 Victory Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-10%)	3mo	$187,496	$124	73
309 Victory Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-10%)	4mo	$179,990	$119	71
289 Victory Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-10%)	4mo	$188,090	$125	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $131,584
• Equity at exit: $204,500

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $414,774
• Equity at exit: $441,011

Cash invested: $63,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75147

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$284 /mo · $3,405/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,986

Max offer price $221,717

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $42	+0% $-37	+5% $-115	+10% $-193
Rent	-10% $-190	-5% $-113	+0% $-37	+5% $40	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $21	base $-37	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,750
• Closing costs: $6,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Spring Crest St Mabank, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1750	$1,749	$1.00	2d	1	0.72mi
1319 W Main St #16 Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.5	1545	$1,695	$1.10	44d	1	1.42mi
1319 W Main St Unit 1 Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.5	1545	$1,950	$1.26	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $227,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $227,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $227,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $227,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $227,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $227,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $227,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $227,000 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-04-25
    price $228,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome home to this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom newly built house located in the heart of Mabank City. The open floor design creates a spacious atmosphere, allowing you to have your dream dining and living area. The beautiful master bathroom offers a luxurious shower and a large walk-in closet. This home also features two generously sized bedrooms, laundry room, and a private backyard. Home warranty is included. Schedule a showing today and see all this property has to offer!

18. 2026-04-25
    price $228,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome home to this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom newly built house located in the heart of Mabank City. The open floor design creates a spacious atmosphere, allowing you to have your dream dining and living area. The beautiful master bathroom offers a luxurious shower and a large walk-in closet. This home also features two generously sized bedrooms, laundry room, and a private backyard. Home warranty is included. Schedule a showing today and see all this property has to offer!

19. 2026-04-03
    price $229,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome home to this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom newly built house located in the heart of Mabank City. The open floor design creates a spacious atmosphere, allowing you to have your dream dining and living area. The beautiful master bathroom offers a luxurious shower and a large walk-in closet. This home also features two generously sized bedrooms, laundry room, and a private backyard. Home warranty is included. Schedule a showing today and see all this property has to offer!

20. 2026-04-03
    price $229,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome home to this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom newly built house located in the heart of Mabank City. The open floor design creates a spacious atmosphere, allowing you to have your dream dining and living area. The beautiful master bathroom offers a luxurious shower and a large walk-in closet. This home also features two generously sized bedrooms, laundry room, and a private backyard. Home warranty is included. Schedule a showing today and see all this property has to offer!

21. 2026-03-06
    listed $237,000 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome home to this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom newly built house located in the heart of Mabank City. The open floor design creates a spacious atmosphere, allowing you to have your dream dining and living area. The beautiful master bathroom offers a luxurious shower and a large walk-in closet. This home also features two generously sized bedrooms, laundry room, and a private backyard. Home warranty is included. Schedule a showing today and see all this property has to offer!

22. 2026-03-06
    listed $237,000 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome home to this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom newly built house located in the heart of Mabank City. The open floor design creates a spacious atmosphere, allowing you to have your dream dining and living area. The beautiful master bathroom offers a luxurious shower and a large walk-in closet. This home also features two generously sized bedrooms, laundry room, and a private backyard. Home warranty is included. Schedule a showing today and see all this property has to offer!

23. 2026-01-27
    status Active
24. 2025-12-10
    historical
25. 2025-10-16
    listed $239,000 Active
26. 2025-10-16
    listed $239,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,716
• − Property taxes: −$3,405
• − Insurance: −$1,135
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,862
• − Management: −$1,862
• − Depreciation: −$6,604
• Taxable loss: −$4,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home in Mabank, TX is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a clean, open layout. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains modern aesthetic and fresh look

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains modern aesthetic and fresh look ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mabank

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #9068

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mabank, TX
• County: Van Zandt County · 9,177 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,177
• Household income: $56,940
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.14%
• Current HPI: 254.32
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $228,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $228,000 HCBOR
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $229,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $229,000 HCBOR
• 2026-03-06 Listed $237,000 HCBOR
• 2026-03-06 Listed $237,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-27 Relisted — HCBOR
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $239,000 HCBOR