123 Cawood Ln · Middlesborough, KY 40965

$83,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1918 Fair condition 435 sqft lot $59/sqft · 40% below area Est $140k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Major Price Reduction!! Charming 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath home situated on a beautiful, quiet lot with plenty of potential and possibilities! This property features an extra-large carport, storage shed, and inviting front porch perfect for enjoying peaceful mornings or evenings outdoors. The large backyard offers plenty of space for entertaining, gardening, or relaxing, while the enclosed back mudroom/workshop provides excellent extra storage, hobby space, or room for projects. Inside, you'll find additional flexible living space upstairs that could easily serve as a third bedroom, home office, playroom, or bonus living area to fit your needs.

Key facts

• Extra-large carport
• Front porch
• Storage shed

Tags

• EXTRA-LARGE CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• FRONT PORCH
• QUIET LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Middlesboro Independent (town): math 14% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #153 of 165 in KY (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Middlesboro Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 453 students, 83% FRL); Middlesboro Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 281 students, 82% FRL); Middlesboro High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #222 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 352 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 63% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($577 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,490 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.58%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,304
• List price: $83,500
• Delta: -40.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Hollywood Drive Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+5%)	15mo	$177,000	$118	52
103 Nutwood Rd	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,244 (-13%)	0mo	$17,000	$14	50
103 Leafwood Rd	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,326 (-7%)	6mo	$164,000	$124	48
811 Manchester Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,435 (+1%)	24mo	$198,000	$138	36
808 Manchester Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,237 (-13%)	23mo	$139,000	$112	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $37,040
• Equity at exit: $40,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $94,577
• Equity at exit: $64,585

Cash invested: $23,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.0 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $150,250 ($117/sqft)
• Median days on market: 237 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -15.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 40965

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$438
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $879/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $83,500

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $429	-5% $405	+0% $381	+5% $358	+10% $334
Rent	-10% $289	-5% $335	+0% $381	+5% $428	+10% $474
Rate	-1.0pp $424	-0.5pp $403	base $381	+0.5pp $360	+1.0pp $338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,875
• Closing costs: $2,505
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parkingCarport
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property
• Construction: Vinyl sidingWood sidingFrame construction
• Exterior features: Storage structureIrregular, level lotCountry setting view

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRefrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooringVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 half bathroom (powder room)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen5 total rooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $83,500 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $83,500 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $83,500 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $83,500 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $83,500 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $83,500 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $83,500 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $83,500 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $83,500 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $83,500 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $83,500 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $83,500 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $83,500 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    price $83,500 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $93,500 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $93,500 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $93,500 Active 65 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $93,500 Active 64 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $93,500 Active 63 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $93,500 Active 62 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $93,500 Active 61 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $93,500 Active 60 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $93,500 Active 59 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $93,500 Active 58 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $93,500 Active 56 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $93,500 Active 55 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $93,500 Active 54 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $93,500 Active 53 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $93,500 Active 52 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $93,500 Active 51 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $93,500 Active 50 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $93,500 Active 49 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $93,500 Active 48 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $93,500 Active 47 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $93,500 Active 46 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $93,500 Active 44 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $93,500 Active 41 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $93,500 Active 40 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $93,500 Active 39 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $93,500 Active 37 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $93,500 Active 36 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $93,500 Active 35 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on market $93,500 Active 34 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $110,000 Active 32 DOM
45. 2026-06-12
    days on market $110,000 Active 31 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $110,000 Active 28 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 27 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $110,000 Active 26 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,500 Active 25 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $118,500 Active 22 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $879 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $879 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,677
• − Property taxes: −$879
• − Insurance: −$418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,127
• − Management: −$1,127
• − Depreciation: −$2,429
• Taxable income: $3,430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$823
• After-tax cash flow: $3,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $35,650–$64,170 screening

The home requires moderate repairs and updates to its kitchen and bathroom, as well as painting and HVAC maintenance. These improvements will significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal · good Flooring tile

Deferred maintenance Est. $3,500–$14,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Hvac (hvac) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Other — No visible signs of damage or wear

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate paint — faded and needs touch-up

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both kitchen cabinets and fixtures — Updating these will make the space more modern and appealing ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system is crucial for comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Middlesboro Elementary School F KY #572/676 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Middlesboro Middle School F KY #156/217 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Middlesboro High School F KY #222/254 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesboro Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104170
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $23,442
• Composite: 18.61/100
• National rank: #8900
• State rank: #153 of 165 in KY

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Middlesborough

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #22662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middlesborough, KY
• County: Bell · 24,501 people
• City population: 11,698
• Population (ZIP): 11,698
• Household income: $30,980
• Rent vs Own: 43.0% rent · 57.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Current HPI: 134.9069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parkingCarport
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property
• Construction: Vinyl sidingWood sidingFrame construction
• Exterior features: Storage structureIrregular, level lotCountry setting view

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRefrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooringVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 half bathroom (powder room)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen5 total rooms

Price history

+419.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $93,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $110,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $118,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $125,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2018-08-07 Listed $70,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2015-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1977-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $879 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.