123 Cawood Ln · Middlesborough, KY 40965

$93,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1918 435 sqft lot $66/sqft · 32% below area Est $138k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Large Price Reduction!! Charming 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath home situated on a beautiful, quiet lot with plenty of potential and possibilities! This property features an extra-large carport, storage shed, and inviting front porch perfect for enjoying peaceful mornings or evenings outdoors. The large backyard offers plenty of space for entertaining, gardening, or relaxing, while the enclosed back mudroom/workshop provides excellent extra storage, hobby space, or room for projects. Inside, you'll find additional flexible living space upstairs that could easily serve as a third bedroom, home office, playroom, or bonus living area to fit your needs. Conveniently located just minutes from Lincoln Me

Key facts

• Extra-large carport
• Front porch
• Storage shed

Tags

• EXTRA-LARGE CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• FRONT PORCH
• QUIET LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Carport
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Frame construction
• Exterior features: Storage structure; Irregular, level lot; Country setting view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (powder room)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Middlesboro Independent (town): math 14% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #153 of 165 in KY (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Middlesboro Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 453 students, 83% FRL); Middlesboro Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 281 students, 82% FRL); Middlesboro High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #222 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 352 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 63% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($646 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,695 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.13%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,309
• List price: $93,500
• Delta: -32.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Hollywood Drive Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+5%)	14mo	$177,000	$118	53
103 Leafwood Rd	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,326 (-7%)	4mo	$164,000	$124	49
811 Manchester Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,435 (+1%)	22mo	$198,000	$138	38
605 Elmwood Rd	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,306 (-8%)	24mo	$175,000	$134	38
808 Manchester Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,237 (-13%)	21mo	$139,000	$112	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $32,505
• Equity at exit: $45,242

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $86,518
• Equity at exit: $72,320

Cash invested: $26,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40965

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$490
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $879/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $763

Max offer price $93,500

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $313	+0% $286	+5% $260	+10% $234
Rent	-10% $198	-5% $242	+0% $286	+5% $331	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $334	-0.5pp $310	base $286	+0.5pp $262	+1.0pp $238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,375
• Closing costs: $2,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $93,500 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $93,500 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $93,500 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $93,500 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $93,500 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $93,500 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $110,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,500 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $118,500 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,500 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,500 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,500 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,500 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $125,000 Active 1265-char remark
19. 2018-08-07
    listed $70,000
20. 2015-05-04
    soldstatus $72,000
21. 1977-03-01
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $879 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $879 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,237
• − Property taxes: −$879
• − Insurance: −$468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$2,720
• Taxable income: $2,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$489
• After-tax cash flow: $2,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesboro Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104170
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $23,442
• Composite: 18.61/100
• National rank: #8900
• State rank: #153 of 165 in KY

Livability — Middlesborough

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #22662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middlesborough, KY
• City population: 11,698
• Population (ZIP): 11,698

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Current HPI: 134.9069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+419.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $93,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $110,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $118,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $125,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2018-08-07 Listed $70,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2015-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1977-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $879 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.