3890 Sipes Ln #53 · San Diego, CA 92173

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1986 2,200 sqft lot Est $304k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Rancho Del Rio Estates #53—an elegantly updated and move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home ideally situated on a desirable corner lot in a sought-after all-age community. This light-filled home features an inviting open floor plan with high ceilings, large custom dual-pane windows and beautiful easy-care luxury continuous vinyl plank flooring with tile in the bathrooms. Enjoy year-round comfort with central A/C and heat, complemented by custom top-down/bottom-up blackout blinds that create the perfect ambiance in every room. The spacious kitchen is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, offering ample counter space, gas cooking, abundant cabinetry, g

Key facts

• 2,200 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Multi-unit body type: double with 2 pads; Pets allowed with size/number limits and possible breed restrictions; Lot features approximately 0–1 unit per acre (estimated); Living area and year built reported by seller; Mobile dimensions: 24 ft wide by 56 ft long
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,249; Manager approval required for residency
• HOA & community: Community features include street lighting and sidewalks; Park name: Rancho Del Rio; Rent includes gardener and pool (land lease community)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Assigned parking; Attached carport; Driveway; Two carport spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Mobile home model CT568AI (mobile home remains); Single-story; Entry level is ground floor
• Construction: Composition/shingle roof; Updated / remodeled condition
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Porch; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Open kitchen to family room; Gas cooking (range/oven); Free-standing range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Water purifier; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom / primary suite
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with double sinks; Bathrooms include bathtub and shower; showers have exhaust fan(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; Storage space; Double pane windows with screens; Entry located on the side of the home; Single-story home (one level)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside in an individual room; Washer hookup available; Community laundry available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $648 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $282k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.0% in San Diego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,206 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Sweetwater Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 517 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: San Ysidro High (math 37% / reading 54%, grade D-, #417 of 1,170 statewide, top 36%, 2,316 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 53% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,444/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1542% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.26%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,744
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3890 Sipes Ln Spc 70	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	15mo	$260,000	$226	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-7,267
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $47,035
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92173

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,444 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $648

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $855	-5% $752	+0% $648	+5% $544	+10% $441
Rent	-10% $376	-5% $512	+0% $648	+5% $784	+10% $920
Rate	-1.0pp $799	-0.5pp $724	base $648	+0.5pp $570	+1.0pp $491

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Okeefe St San Ysidro, CA	4.0	3.0	1776	$4,700	$2.65	0d	1	0.29mi
143 W San Ysidro Blvd Unit 1/2 San Ysidro, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,750	$2.89	0d	1	0.37mi
206 W San Ysidro Blvd San Ysidro, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$2,404	$3.00	0d	4	0.38mi
3763 Via del Bardo San Ysidro, CA	3.0	2.5	1472	$4,200	$2.85	4d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $315,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥88°F today · 1 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,306
• − Management: −$3,306
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $3,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$766
• After-tax cash flow: $7,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweetwater Union High
• NCES district ID: 0638640
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,051
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4158
• State rank: #187 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Diego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4206

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Diego, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 1,397,612
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 27,585
• Household income: $69,792
• Rent vs Own: 65.1% rent · 34.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1542.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 40% White 3% Asian 2% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada
• Languages at home: 14% English-only · Spanish 84% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.10%
• Current HPI: 516.1421
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $315,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2013): $412 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.