64 Arlyn Dr E · East Massapequa, NY 11758

$629,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,271 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1951 6,000 sqft lot $495/sqft · 21% below area Est $801k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4 bedroom, 2 Bath Cape located in the desirable Massapequa School District! This home offers a full basement and is situated on a quiet residential street, presenting a fantastic opportunity to make it your own. Featuring oil heat and very low taxes, this property is perfect for buyers looking to customize and add value. The home is all original and in need of tender loving care, making it ideal for investors or those with a vision. Don't miss the chance to transform this diamond in the rough into your dream home

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1951

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $629k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-910 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $468k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $383k (39.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $383k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.7% in East Massapequa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#287 in NY, #4,601 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Massapequa Union Free School District (suburban): math 76% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #39 of 590 in NY (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($620k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $382,621 (39.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.20%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $800,914
• List price: $629,000
• Delta: -21.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Seaton St	0.18mi	4/1.0	1,170 (-8%)	4mo	$730,000	$624	71
2 Jackson Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,378 (+8%)	0mo	$760,000	$552	67
172 Glengariff Rd	0.53mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,285 (+1%)	2mo	$690,000	$537	67
24 Arlyn Dr E	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,424 (+12%)	0mo	$805,000	$565	62
280 Carol Dr	0.38mi	4/1.0	1,353 (+6%)	8mo	$590,000	$436	62
11 Cherokee St	0.56mi	4/1.5	1,347 (+6%)	1mo	$740,000	$549	61
7 Croyden Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	8mo	$680,000	$472	60
100 Brendan Ave	0.54mi	4/1.0	1,241 (-2%)	8mo	$715,000	$576	60
260 Cartwright Blvd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (+9%)	10mo	$655,000	$472	56
5 Huron Ave	0.47mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,350 (+6%)	5mo	$856,000	$634	54
220 Belvedere Dr	0.71mi	4/1.0	1,207 (-5%)	2mo	$745,000	$617	52
13 Pocahontas St W	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-6%)	5mo	$860,000	$717	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-160,067
• Equity at exit: $93,786

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-214,796
• Equity at exit: $54,384

Cash invested: $176,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11758

• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,826 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,299
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,462/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$804
• Net cashflow: $-910

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,978

Max offer price $468,283

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-554	-5% $-732	+0% $-910	+5% $-1,088	+10% $-1,266
Rent	-10% $-1,212	-5% $-1,061	+0% $-910	+5% $-759	+10% $-608
Rate	-1.0pp $-593	-0.5pp $-750	base $-910	+0.5pp $-1,073	+1.0pp $-1,239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,250
• Closing costs: $18,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Weaver Dr Massapequa, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1003	$4,470	$4.46	0d	1	0.84mi
158 Oldfield Ave Amityville, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,100	$2.58	19d	1	1.34mi
405 Massapequa Ave Massapequa, NY	3.0	1.0	1550	$3,700	$2.39	5d	1	1.37mi
398 Harrison Ave Massapequa, NY	3.0	1.0	1098	$3,800	$3.46	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   Charming 4 bedroom, 2 Bath Cape located in the desirable Massapequa School District! This home offers a full basement and is situated on a quiet residential street, presenting a fantastic opportunity to make it your own. Featuring oil heat and very low taxes, this property is perfect for buyers looking to customize and add value. The home is all original and in need of tender loving care, making it ideal for investors or those with a vision. Don't miss the chance to transform this diamond in the rough into your dream home

2. 2026-04-27
   listed $629,000 Active 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   Charming 4 bedroom, 2 Bath Cape located in the desirable Massapequa School District! This home offers a full basement and is situated on a quiet residential street, presenting a fantastic opportunity to make it your own. Featuring oil heat and very low taxes, this property is perfect for buyers looking to customize and add value. The home is all original and in need of tender loving care, making it ideal for investors or those with a vision. Don't miss the chance to transform this diamond in the rough into your dream home

3. 2026-04-14
   historical $629,000 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   Charming 4 bedroom, 2 Bath Cape located in the desirable Massapequa School District! This home offers a full basement and is situated on a quiet residential street, presenting a fantastic opportunity to make it your own. Featuring oil heat and very low taxes, this property is perfect for buyers looking to customize and add value. The home is all original and in need of tender loving care, making it ideal for investors or those with a vision. Don't miss the chance to transform this diamond in the rough into your dream home

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,462 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,546 · $629/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,084/yr (+$257/mo · 69.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,234
• − Property taxes: −$4,462
• − Insurance: −$3,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,673
• − Management: −$3,673
• − Depreciation: −$18,298
• Taxable loss: −$22,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,417
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Massapequa Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618630
• Math proficiency: 76% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $116,173
• Composite: 73.55/100
• National rank: #178
• State rank: #39 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Massapequa

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #4601

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Massapequa, NY
• Population (ZIP): 54,741

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -765.19%
• Current HPI: 287.8085
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $629,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Coming Soon $629,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,462 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.