2915 Roger St · Sebring, FL 33872

$104,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Condo public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1978 $139/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely home with beautiful furnishings move-in ready - just bring your toothbrush! Everything you need to live comfortably is here awaiting your approval. Neutral colors allows for your special touches. The Park offers so many amenities that's it's hard to keep up with the your neighbors. Wonderful people and a wonderful place to live. The weather is great so come on down and take a look at this fantastic home. You won't be disappointed. Call for a look and make an offer today. This one won't last long.

Key facts

• Pickleball court
• Natural light
• Community room

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• COMMUNITY ROOM
• POOL
• PICKLEBALL COURT
• WALK IN CLOSET
• WALK-IN TUB SHOWER COMBO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community
• Financial info: Not a multi-family investment (pets not allowed); Property tax information not included
• HOA & community: Has association; Monthly HOA includes common areas; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, community room, pickleball courts; Monthly HOA fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (covered, 1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Three-phase electric; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces east; Resale condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Modular construction; Built on brick skirt
• Exterior features: Screened patio; Screened porch; Patio; Porch; Skirted with brick

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Partially furnished; Double-hung metal windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with washer hookup inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.3% in Sebring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 700 active listings in the ZIP; 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $104k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,640 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.94%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $8,900
• Equity at exit: $15,507

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $35,560
• Equity at exit: $8,992

Cash invested: $29,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33872

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 700
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$139
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $104,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,000
• Closing costs: $3,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $139 · $1,668/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $104,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-04-27
    price $104,000
15. 2026-02-26
    listed $109,900 Active
16. 2014-03-12
    soldstatus $47,500 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Lovely home with beautiful furnishings move-in ready - just bring your toothbrush! Everything you need to live comfortably is here awaiting your approval. Neutral colors allows for your special touches. The Park offers so many amenities that's it's hard to keep up with the your neighbors. Wonderful people and a wonderful place to live. The weather is great so come on down and take a look at this fantastic home. You won't be disappointed. Call for a look and make an offer today. This one won't last long.

17. 2014-02-11
    listed $49,900 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Lovely home with beautiful furnishings move-in ready - just bring your toothbrush! Everything you need to live comfortably is here awaiting your approval. Neutral colors allows for your special touches. The Park offers so many amenities that's it's hard to keep up with the your neighbors. Wonderful people and a wonderful place to live. The weather is great so come on down and take a look at this fantastic home. You won't be disappointed. Call for a look and make an offer today. This one won't last long.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $375 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $863 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$489/yr (+$41/mo · 130.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,826
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,451
• − Management: −$1,451
• − HOA: −$1,668
• − Depreciation: −$3,025
• Taxable income: $3,826
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$918
• After-tax cash flow: $4,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highlands
• NCES district ID: 1200840
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,276
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4672
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sebring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #618
• US rank: #11992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Highlands County · 98,898 people
• City population: 50,797
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,746
• Household income: $69,578
• Rent vs Own: 10.6% rent · 89.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Highlands County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,674 people
• By 2030: 99,615 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 99,342 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 98,242 · -1.4%
• By 2075: 93,291 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 79,894 · -19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Highlands

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 29.3% · R 70.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+32.0 2012: R+23.0 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.20%
• Current HPI: 225.3761
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+108.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $104,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $109,900 Beaches MLS
• 2014-03-12 Sold (MLS) $47,500 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2014-02-11 Listed $49,900 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $375 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.