16430 Tracy Ct · Deerwood, TX 77306

$220,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 220 Days on market

Built 2016 8,942 sqft lot Est $213k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home located in a gated community on a cul-de-sac street. Granite counters, tile flooring in kitchen and baths, vinyl wood flooring in spacious family room off the kitchen. Open floor plan. Game room upstairs along with all three bedrooms. Bedrooms are spacious with great closet space. Covered back porch overlooks large yard fully fenced. Sprinkler system for both front and backyards. Refrigerator is included.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Vinyl wood flooring
• Cul-de-sac street

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CUL-DE-SAC STREET
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE FLOORING
• VINYL WOOD FLOORING
• OPEN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by ICM Property Management; Annual association fee of $250

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2016; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (13 x 13); Second bedroom on second level (13 x 10); Third bedroom on second level (12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Seller disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-719/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 34% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,376
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16430 Tracy Ct	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,667 (0%)	1mo	$220,000	$132	99
256 Kellyn Ct	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,766 (+6%)	0mo	$199,000	$113	79
260 Kellyn Ct	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,740 (+4%)	7mo	$209,990	$121	76
236 Kellyn Ct	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,592 (-4%)	8mo	$239,000	$150	73
16403 Tracy Ct	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-3%)	16mo	$219,900	$136	70
191 Carmen Blvd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-6%)	19mo	$174,900	$112	65
194 Carmen Blvd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-6%)	23mo	$205,000	$131	63
17127 Saxophone Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (-8%)	0mo	$195,990	$128	48
16475 N Emerson	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-13%)	13mo	$174,900	$120	44
16443 N Emerson Cir	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,892 (+14%)	19mo	$99,900	$53	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-39,386
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-38,887
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,029/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,028

Max offer price $209,415

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	10d	1	1.06mi
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	43d	1	1.06mi
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	43d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-04
   status Active
4. 2026-04-30
   historical
5. 2026-04-03
   price $220,000
6. 2026-03-09
   price $225,000
7. 2026-02-02
   price $235,000
8. 2025-09-25
   listed $250,000 Active
9. 2025-09-20
   historical $1,650
10. 2025-09-17
    listed $1,650
11. 2025-02-07
    historical $1,525
12. 2025-02-07
    historical $1,525
13. 2025-01-31
    price $1,525
14. 2025-01-30
    price $1,525
15. 2025-01-10
    price $1,535
16. 2025-01-10
    price $1,535
17. 2025-01-10
    price $1,550
18. 2025-01-09
    price $1,535
19. 2024-11-28
    price $1,550
20. 2024-11-28
    price $1,550
21. 2024-11-02
    listed $1,580
22. 2024-11-01
    price $1,580
23. 2024-10-18
    price $1,595
24. 2024-10-11
    price $1,615
25. 2024-10-04
    price $1,620
26. 2024-09-27
    price $1,635
27. 2024-09-20
    price $1,650
28. 2024-09-17
    listed $1,665
29. 2023-10-06
    historical $1,585
30. 2023-09-20
    listed $1,585
31. 2023-09-11
    historical $1,585
32. 2023-08-23
    price $1,585
33. 2023-08-03
    listed
34. 2023-07-25
    historical
35. 2022-04-27
    soldstatus
36. 2022-04-15
    soldstatus Sold 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Beautiful home located in a gated community on a cul-de-sac street. Granite counters, tile flooring in kitchen and baths, vinyl wood flooring in spacious family room off the kitchen. Open floor plan. Game room upstairs along with all three bedrooms. Bedrooms are spacious with great closet space. Covered back porch overlooks large yard fully fenced. Sprinkler system for both front and backyards. Refrigerator is included.

37. 2022-04-01
    status Pending 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Beautiful home located in a gated community on a cul-de-sac street. Granite counters, tile flooring in kitchen and baths, vinyl wood flooring in spacious family room off the kitchen. Open floor plan. Game room upstairs along with all three bedrooms. Bedrooms are spacious with great closet space. Covered back porch overlooks large yard fully fenced. Sprinkler system for both front and backyards. Refrigerator is included.

38. 2022-03-26
    status Option Pending 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Beautiful home located in a gated community on a cul-de-sac street. Granite counters, tile flooring in kitchen and baths, vinyl wood flooring in spacious family room off the kitchen. Open floor plan. Game room upstairs along with all three bedrooms. Bedrooms are spacious with great closet space. Covered back porch overlooks large yard fully fenced. Sprinkler system for both front and backyards. Refrigerator is included.

39. 2022-03-23
    listed $230,000 Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Beautiful home located in a gated community on a cul-de-sac street. Granite counters, tile flooring in kitchen and baths, vinyl wood flooring in spacious family room off the kitchen. Open floor plan. Game room upstairs along with all three bedrooms. Bedrooms are spacious with great closet space. Covered back porch overlooks large yard fully fenced. Sprinkler system for both front and backyards. Refrigerator is included.

40. 2021-06-18
    soldstatus
41. 2021-06-17
    soldstatus Sold 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL HOME LOCATED IN A GATED COMMUNITY. GRANITE COUNTERTOPS. TILE FLOORS IN KITCHEN & BATHS. SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM WOOD TONE FLOORING. GAME ROOM UPSTAIRS! NICE QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD. NO FLOOD HISTORY. LOW TAXES. LOW HOA FEES. FENCED BACKYARD. MAKE THIS ONE HOME!

42. 2021-05-27
    status Pending 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL HOME LOCATED IN A GATED COMMUNITY. GRANITE COUNTERTOPS. TILE FLOORS IN KITCHEN & BATHS. SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM WOOD TONE FLOORING. GAME ROOM UPSTAIRS! NICE QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD. NO FLOOD HISTORY. LOW TAXES. LOW HOA FEES. FENCED BACKYARD. MAKE THIS ONE HOME!

43. 2021-05-18
    status Option Pending 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL HOME LOCATED IN A GATED COMMUNITY. GRANITE COUNTERTOPS. TILE FLOORS IN KITCHEN & BATHS. SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM WOOD TONE FLOORING. GAME ROOM UPSTAIRS! NICE QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD. NO FLOOD HISTORY. LOW TAXES. LOW HOA FEES. FENCED BACKYARD. MAKE THIS ONE HOME!

44. 2021-05-14
    listed $190,000 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL HOME LOCATED IN A GATED COMMUNITY. GRANITE COUNTERTOPS. TILE FLOORS IN KITCHEN & BATHS. SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM WOOD TONE FLOORING. GAME ROOM UPSTAIRS! NICE QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD. NO FLOOD HISTORY. LOW TAXES. LOW HOA FEES. FENCED BACKYARD. MAKE THIS ONE HOME!

45. 2017-05-01
    soldstatus Sold
46. 2017-03-15
    status Pending, Continue to Show
47. 2017-03-15
    status Pending
48. 2017-03-06
    listed $154,900 Active
49. 2017-02-16
    historical
50. 2016-12-02
    status Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,029 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,029 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$4,029
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,427
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,062
• After-tax cash flow: $343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+39.7% since first listed

55 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-20 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Rental Removed $1,525 HARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Rental Removed $1,525 RENTLY
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $1,525 RENTLY
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $1,525 HARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $1,535 RENTLY
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $1,535 HARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $1,535 HARMLS
• 2024-11-28 Price Changed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2024-11-28 Price Changed $1,550 RENTLY
• 2024-11-02 Listed for Rent $1,580 HARMLS
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $1,580 RENTLY
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $1,595 RENTLY
• 2024-10-11 Price Changed $1,615 RENTLY
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $1,620 RENTLY
• 2024-09-27 Price Changed $1,635 RENTLY
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $1,650 RENTLY
• 2024-09-17 Listed for Rent $1,665 RENTLY
• 2023-10-06 Rental Removed $1,585 HARMLS
• 2023-09-20 Listed for Rent $1,585 HARMLS
• 2023-09-11 Rental Removed $1,585 HARMLS
• 2023-08-23 Price Changed $1,585 HARMLS
• 2023-08-03 Listed for Rent — HARMLS
• 2023-07-25 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-23 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-14 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2017-05-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-03-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-03-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-03-06 Listed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2017-02-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-12-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-11-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-09-23 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2016-08-20 Listed $157,500 HARMLS
• 2016-08-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-03-15 Listed $157,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+18.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,029 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.