4 W Hunter St · Sullivan, IL 61951

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,858 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1878 $24/sqft · 69% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

No garage, dated kitchen and bathrooms. A handyman& apos; s dream home. Beautiful original wood floors and trim throughout home and upstairs. Needs roof, new furnace and hot water heater. Parlor, living room, dining room, enclosed side porch, (4) bedrooms, kitchen, attic and basement, laundry room and mud room. Corner lot. than 30 seconds from park. On parade route. Legion and rec center across the street. School less than 5 minutes walk away. Quiet neighborhood on corner lot.

Key facts

• Enclosed side porch
• Original wood floors
• Corner lot

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• CORNER LOT
• ENCLOSED SIDE PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $748 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.2% vs local median 6.4% in Sullivan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#647 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Sullivan CUSD 300 (town): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #338 of 620 in IL (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Moultrie County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Moultrie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.21%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,547
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -68.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 E Monroe St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,831 (-2%)	2mo	$217,000	$119	82
407 N Main St	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,080 (+12%)	3mo	$179,900	$86	65
710 N Worth St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,609 (-13%)	6mo	$200,000	$124	63
116 W Strain St	0.11mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,702 (-8%)	15mo	$112,500	$66	60
14 Seth Dunscomb Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+1%)	6mo	$200,000	$106	59
716 W Monroe St	0.46mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,821 (-2%)	8mo	$195,000	$107	58
2 Parkway Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-13%)	20mo	$144,900	$89	55
712 W Harrison St	0.49mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,974 (+6%)	7mo	$120,000	$61	54
818 N Market St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,753 (-6%)	7mo	$230,000	$131	52
613 S Polk St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,883 (+1%)	20mo	$182,500	$97	47
602 Polk St	0.72mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,082 (+12%)	4mo	$165,000	$79	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $40,356
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.66×
• Total profit: $96,566
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61951

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $772/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $748

Break-even live

Break-even rent $404

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $773	-5% $760	+0% $748	+5% $735	+10% $722
Rent	-10% $641	-5% $694	+0% $748	+5% $801	+10% $854
Rate	-1.0pp $770	-0.5pp $759	base $748	+0.5pp $736	+1.0pp $724

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $45,000 Active 474-char remark
2. 2009-04-30
   soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $772 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $897 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$772
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $8,785
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,108
• After-tax cash flow: $6,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan CUSD 300
• NCES district ID: 1738130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,763
• Composite: 21.41/100
• National rank: #8346
• State rank: #338 of 620 in IL

Livability — Sullivan

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #647
• US rank: #13204

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sullivan, IL
• Population (ZIP): 7,654

Population outlook (Moultrie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,766 people
• By 2030: 14,490 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 13,848 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 13,063 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 10,862 · -26.4%
• By 2100: 7,963 · -46.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Moultrie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.0 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+27.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.15%
• Current HPI: 208.2808
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2009-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $772 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.