4863 Bayberry Pl #227 · Hamilton, NJ 08330

$199,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,068 sqft · Condo public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1987 $624/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! This 2 bedroom/1bath first level condo is warm and cozy! Great for a starter home! Also a great opportunity for investors! Stainless steel appliances, newer carpet, remodeled kitchen! Very close to shopping and close to ACCC and Stockton! Move in ready!

Key facts

• Anderson slider
• Walking path
• $624 HOA

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR CORNER UNIT
• OUTDOOR STORAGE CLOSET
• WALKING PATH
• PEACEFUL REAR LOCATION
• GORGEOUS VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• ANDERSON SLIDER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No pets allowed (note: unit features list pets allowed — see remarks); Property listed for sale
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee (includes amenities, maintenance, management, sewer, trash, water, and pool); Community amenities include clubhouse/clubroom, playground and pool

Exterior

• Parking: One exterior parking space; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condo (Harding Run 2); 3–5 story building; Unit occupies one level; Unit facing/position: first floor, end unit
• Construction: 25+ years old
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Corner unit; No waterfront; Floodplain: No

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas stove; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: End unit located on the first floor (unit has one level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Blinds, curtains and drapes; Dining area; Laundry/utility room; Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (24.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George L. Hess Educational Complex (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #990 of 1,303 statewide, top 76%, 1,363 students, 53% FRL); William Davies Middle School (math 10% / reading 41%, grade F, #359 of 431 statewide, top 84%, 930 students, 51% FRL); Oakcrest High School (math 9% / reading 36%, grade F, #342 of 399 statewide, top 86%, 914 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 37% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $200k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,223 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.92%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $91,766
• Equity at exit: $180,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $284,917
• Equity at exit: $388,537

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,215 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,235/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$624
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,564

Max offer price $151,223

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-163	-5% $-219	+0% $-276	+5% $-333	+10% $-389
Rent	-10% $-451	-5% $-364	+0% $-276	+5% $-189	+10% $-101
Rate	-1.0pp $-175	-0.5pp $-225	base $-276	+0.5pp $-328	+1.0pp $-381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1932 Cologne Ave Mays Landing, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,825	$2.35	15d	1	0.73mi
2529 Cottonwood Ct Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	1.5	1376	$2,200	$1.60	45d	1	0.92mi
2529 Cottonwood Ct Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	1.5	1376	$2,200	$1.60	15d	1	0.92mi
3401 Montgomery Dr Mays Landing, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1192	$2,810	$2.36	15d	18	1.05mi
2703 Mimosa Ct Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	1.5	1268	$2,200	$1.74	15d	1	1.08mi
2807 Hawthorn Ct Mays Landing, NJ	1.0	1.0	929	$1,800	$1.94	15d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $624 · $7,488/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,990 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,990 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,990 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,990 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,990 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,990 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,990 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,990 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $199,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,235 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,107 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: +$872/yr (+$73/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,235
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,126
• − Management: −$2,126
• − HOA: −$7,488
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406510
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,997
• Composite: 21.34/100
• National rank: #8372
• State rank: #401 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Hamilton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: McKee City, NJ
• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+66.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $199,990 SJSRMLS
• 2021-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-29 Sold (MLS) $104,000 SJSRMLS
• 2020-11-20 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2020-11-04 Listed $110,000 SJSRMLS
• 2020-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $95,600 Public Records
• 2020-03-20 Sold (MLS) $95,600 SJSRMLS
• 2020-02-21 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2020-02-09 Listed $99,900 SJSRMLS
• 2010-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $120,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,235 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.