206 Pastar Fls · Geronimo, TX 78155

$175,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $130/sqft · at area comps Est $185k · at est. $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Gerson - This new single-story home features a modern layout with room to grow. The stylish kitchen shares a footprint with the living and dining areas, and a covered patio provides convenient outdoor access. Three bedrooms are placed to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Walk-in closet
• Stylish kitchen

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: HOA fee $225 quarterly; Association transfer fee $450
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee; Association transfer fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-Car Garage
• Utilities: Water supplied by Crystal; Sewer supplied by Crystal; Gas supplied by Unigas; Electricity supplied by GVEC; Garbage service by Frontier
• Home design: New construction by Lennar; Slab entry/foundation
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by Lennar; New home
• Exterior features: Pool (community); Clubhouse (community); Other community amenities (see remarks); Brick, siding, and cement fiber exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bath; Bedroom 2 approximately 10 x 12; Bedroom 3 approximately 12 x 10; Master bedroom approximately 11 x 13
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only and single vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and natural gas heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; One living area; Utility room inside; Laundry room on main level; All bedrooms downstairs; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $176k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.7% in Geronimo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,471 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,359 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,669
• List price: $175,999
• Delta: -4.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Pastar Fls	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,354 (0%)	1mo	$186,999	$138	98
163 Pastar Fls	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	1mo	$184,999	$125	76
166 Pastar Fls	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	2mo	$192,999	$130	76
150 Pastar Fls	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	1mo	$188,999	$127	75
147 Pastar Fls	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	1mo	$185,999	$125	75
130 Pastar Fls	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	2mo	$190,999	$129	73
138 Pastar Fls	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	3mo	$244,999	$165	73
125 Pastar Fls	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	2mo	$193,999	$131	72
137 Pastar Fls	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	3mo	$235,999	$159	72
117 Pastar Fls	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	3mo	$240,999	$163	71
964 Pastar Crk	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	3mo	$231,999	$156	69
9024 James Bowie	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-10%)	1mo	$169,500	$139	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,330
• Equity at exit: $26,242

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-20,173
• Equity at exit: $15,217

Cash invested: $49,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$923
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$220 /mo · $2,640/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,635

Max offer price $175,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $152	+0% $91	+5% $30	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-47	-5% $22	+0% $91	+5% $160	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $136	base $91	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,000
• Closing costs: $5,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Alligator Crk Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	44d	1	0.07mi
964 Pastar Crk Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	2d	1	0.14mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	44d	1	0.22mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	2d	1	0.22mi
9272 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	2d	1	0.33mi
9268 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,575	$0.97	3d	1	0.34mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	2d	1	0.38mi
9211 Saint Jerome Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	2d	1	0.52mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $175,999 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-05-17
   listed $180,999 Active 401-char remark
3. 2026-05-14
   listed $200,999 New 551-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,859
• − Property taxes: −$2,640
• − Insurance: −$880
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$5,120
• Taxable loss: −$1,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$423
• After-tax cash flow: $1,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 24 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This modern single-story home is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. It offers a stylish kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. Potential buyers and renters can appreciate the home's current condition and the high ROI updates that can be made to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Geronimo

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1471
• US rank: #25174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geronimo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $175,999 LERA
• 2026-05-14 Listed $200,999 LERA