5622 Shelford Birch Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$185,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $85/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community association: Avalon Ridge Community Assoc. Inc; Annual association fee of $1,025

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Living area approximately 1,402; Built in 2026; Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 14); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each 10 x 12); Total of 4 bedrooms; Dining room on the first floor (10 x 8); Family room on the first floor (14 x 16)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combined; Kitchen and dining area combined; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $185,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $242,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $186k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-399 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,913 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.07%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,000
• List price: $185,990
• Delta: -24.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5623 Shelford Birch Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+1%)	1mo	$241,500	$171	96
15435 Glinton Farm Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+1%)	1mo	$244,500	$173	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-69,606
• Equity at exit: $36,083

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.66×
• Total profit: $-112,511
• Equity at exit: $20,924

Cash invested: $67,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$302 /mo · $3,630/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,225

Max offer price $184,221

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-232	-5% $-316	+0% $-399	+5% $-483	+10% $-567
Rent	-10% $-535	-5% $-467	+0% $-399	+5% $-331	+10% $-263
Rate	-1.0pp $-277	-0.5pp $-338	base $-399	+0.5pp $-462	+1.0pp $-526

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,500
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on marketlisting id $185,990 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

2. 2026-06-17
   price $185,990 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $183,640 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $183,640 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $183,640 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $183,640 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $183,640 Active 49 DOM

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $183,640 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $186,990 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $186,990 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $186,990 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $186,990 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $186,990 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $186,990 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $208,790 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

16. 2026-05-04
    price $208,790 526-char remark
17. 2026-04-21
    price $214,990 526-char remark
18. 2026-04-21
    listed $223,990 Active 526-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,556
• − Property taxes: −$3,630
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$9,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,190
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a fresh paint job and some smart home upgrades to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — High-quality flooring can significantly boost the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Rental Installing smart lighting in the kitchen and bathrooms — Smart lighting can make the home more energy-efficient and appealing to renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — High-quality flooring can significantly boost the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Installing smart lighting in the kitchen and bathrooms — Smart lighting can make the home more energy-efficient and appealing to renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $185,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $185,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listed $185,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $183,640 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $183,640 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $186,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $186,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $199,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Listed $208,790 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $208,790 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $223,990 HARMLS