Barton Plan · Conroe, TX 77318

$231,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 189 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Barton floor plan by D. R. Horton is a thoughtfully designed single-story home that offers the perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and modern style. With three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage, this home makes everyday living effortless while providing plenty of room for entertaining and relaxation. From the moment you step onto the welcoming front porch, the Barton opens into a foyer that leads directly into the heart of the home. The open-concept kitchen features a large island, stainless steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry, providing both convenience and style. The kitchen seamlessly flows into the dining area and family room, creating an ideal space for gatherings, holidays, or casual nights at home. Large windows enhance the open living space, filling it with natural light and creating a warm, inviting atmosphere. The private primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home, offering a peaceful retreat. It includes a spacious walk-in closet and a beautifully appointed ensuite bathroom with modern finishes. Two additional bedrooms are located near a secondary bath, providing flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. A dedicated utility room adds extra convenience to daily routines. The Barton's smart layout is designed to maximize space and efficiency while still maintaining a cozy and welcoming feel. With its stylish features, functional flow, and spacious two-car garage, this floor plan is an excellent choice for home

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Front porch
• Dining area

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DINING AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $231,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $239,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-917/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,264 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,990
• List price: $231,990
• Delta: -3.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11671 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	1mo	$231,990	$181	99
11755 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	4mo	$230,990	$180	96
12011 Curlin Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+4%)	1mo	$245,990	$185	92
11735 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-10%)	2mo	$209,990	$182	82
11783 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+12%)	0mo	$234,990	$164	79
11703 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+12%)	0mo	$237,990	$166	79
11683 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+12%)	3mo	$234,990	$164	77
11849 East Gate Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-8%)	3mo	$235,444	$201	74
11779 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	3mo	$239,990	$163	70
11993 Barbaro Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+4%)	2mo	$255,990	$193	61
11707 Ruffian Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-10%)	0mo	$224,990	$195	50
11631 Ruffian Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	0mo	$241,990	$165	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-49,595
• Equity at exit: $35,783

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-72,013
• Equity at exit: $20,750

Cash invested: $67,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $228,930

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,998
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11848 Whirlaway Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,695	$1.22	24d	1	0.46mi
11962 Wisteria Meadows Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,785	$1.07	43d	1	0.57mi
11962 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,925	$1.38	18d	1	1.31mi
11971 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,965	$1.36	5d	1	1.33mi
12983 Skyline Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$2,250	$1.33	17d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $231,990 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $231,990 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $231,990 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $231,990 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $231,990 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $231,990 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $231,990 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $231,990 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $231,990 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $231,990 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $231,990 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $231,990 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $231,990 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    price $231,990 1495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1495 chars)

    The Barton floor plan by D. R. Horton is a thoughtfully designed single-story home that offers the perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and modern style. With three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage, this home makes everyday living effortless while providing plenty of room for entertaining and relaxation. From the moment you step onto the welcoming front porch, the Barton opens into a foyer that leads directly into the heart of the home. The open-concept kitchen features a large island, stainless steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry, providing both convenience and style. The kitchen seamlessly flows into the dining area and family room, creating an ideal space for gatherings, holidays, or casual nights at home. Large windows enhance the open living space, filling it with natural light and creating a warm, inviting atmosphere. The private primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home, offering a peaceful retreat. It includes a spacious walk-in closet and a beautifully appointed ensuite bathroom with modern finishes. Two additional bedrooms are located near a secondary bath, providing flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. A dedicated utility room adds extra convenience to daily routines. The Barton's smart layout is designed to maximize space and efficiency while still maintaining a cozy and welcoming feel. With its stylish features, functional flow, and spacious two-car garage, this floor plan is an excellent choice for home

15. 2026-04-02
    price $230,990 1495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1495 chars)

    The Barton floor plan by D. R. Horton is a thoughtfully designed single-story home that offers the perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and modern style. With three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage, this home makes everyday living effortless while providing plenty of room for entertaining and relaxation. From the moment you step onto the welcoming front porch, the Barton opens into a foyer that leads directly into the heart of the home. The open-concept kitchen features a large island, stainless steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry, providing both convenience and style. The kitchen seamlessly flows into the dining area and family room, creating an ideal space for gatherings, holidays, or casual nights at home. Large windows enhance the open living space, filling it with natural light and creating a warm, inviting atmosphere. The private primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home, offering a peaceful retreat. It includes a spacious walk-in closet and a beautifully appointed ensuite bathroom with modern finishes. Two additional bedrooms are located near a secondary bath, providing flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. A dedicated utility room adds extra convenience to daily routines. The Barton's smart layout is designed to maximize space and efficiency while still maintaining a cozy and welcoming feel. With its stylish features, functional flow, and spacious two-car garage, this floor plan is an excellent choice for home

16. 2025-12-12
    listed $229,990 Active 1495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1495 chars)

    The Barton floor plan by D. R. Horton is a thoughtfully designed single-story home that offers the perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and modern style. With three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage, this home makes everyday living effortless while providing plenty of room for entertaining and relaxation. From the moment you step onto the welcoming front porch, the Barton opens into a foyer that leads directly into the heart of the home. The open-concept kitchen features a large island, stainless steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry, providing both convenience and style. The kitchen seamlessly flows into the dining area and family room, creating an ideal space for gatherings, holidays, or casual nights at home. Large windows enhance the open living space, filling it with natural light and creating a warm, inviting atmosphere. The private primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home, offering a peaceful retreat. It includes a spacious walk-in closet and a beautifully appointed ensuite bathroom with modern finishes. Two additional bedrooms are located near a secondary bath, providing flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. A dedicated utility room adds extra convenience to daily routines. The Barton's smart layout is designed to maximize space and efficiency while still maintaining a cozy and welcoming feel. With its stylish features, functional flow, and spacious two-car garage, this floor plan is an excellent choice for home

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,443
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,209
• After-tax cash flow: $292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Conroe, TX, is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious layout and is ready for immediate occupancy. Potential buyers and renters can appreciate the home's current condition and consider minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make bathrooms more appealing and functional.
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make bathrooms more appealing and functional. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $231,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $230,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Listed $229,990 Zillow