33340 Substation Rd · Millville, DE 19945

$450,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2006 0.68 ac lot $301/sqft · 8% below area Est $488k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Very Nice 3 bedroom 2 bath home in very good condition. NO HOA. High ceilings, stainless appliances, water conditioner, attached garage. Private setting with trees on three sides, but lot is cleared. Move in ready. A must see for a home in this price range and not too far from shopping and the beaches.

Key facts

• Water conditioner
• Cleared lot
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• WATER CONDITIONER
• PRIVATE SETTING
• CLEARED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Property in a very good condition; Not in a federal flood zone; Pets allowed (cats and dogs permitted)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage with opener (1 garage space); Driveway with three spaces; Off-street parking; crushed stone surfaces; Total of 4 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water with conditioner; On-site septic system; Electric service (110 volts); Cable available; Municipal trash not available
• Home design: Detached single-story home; Main entrance faces north
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Double-pane windows; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Deck(s) and patio(s); Exterior lighting; Gutter system; Sidewalks; Backs to trees; Cleared, private front and rear yards; Rural setting; Unrestricted

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Single oven; Stove; Refrigerator; Icemaker; Stainless steel appliances; Water conditioner (owned)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s) with electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Combination kitchen and dining area; Six-panel and sliding glass doors; 9'+ ceilings with drywall; Not furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit on the main floor; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-761 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (29.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (47.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (47.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.4% in Millville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#49 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lord Baltimore Elementary School (math 51% / reading 67%, grade B-, #4 of 105 statewide, top 4%, 579 students, 0% FRL); Selbyville Middle School (math 20% / reading 49%, grade F, #12 of 36 statewide, top 34%, 719 students, 0% FRL); Sussex Central High School (math 23% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 40 statewide, top 59%, 2,039 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,810 (47.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.25%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $487,534
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -7.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36244 Beaver Dam Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-1%)	4mo	$429,990	$291	74
34282 Central Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+7%)	17mo	$625,000	$391	64
35027 Tybee St	0.38mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,610 (+8%)	4mo	$460,000	$286	59
31822 Shad Creek Way	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+5%)	22mo	$499,990	$318	54
26227 Summerset Blvd	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,650 (+10%)	2mo	$450,000	$273	52
61 Old Forge Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+7%)	15mo	$499,000	$311	42
51 Old Forge Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+12%)	10mo	$495,000	$295	39
10 Fairway Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+12%)	14mo	$460,000	$274	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $196,337
• Equity at exit: $405,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $615,784
• Equity at exit: $874,251

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19945

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 15.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $921/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,322

Max offer price $315,530

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-506	-5% $-634	+0% $-761	+5% $-1,402	+10% $-1,558
Rent	-10% $-947	-5% $-854	+0% $-761	+5% $-668	+10% $-575
Rate	-1.0pp $-535	-0.5pp $-647	base $-761	+0.5pp $-878	+1.0pp $-996

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35205 Tupelo Cir Frankford, DE	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$2,444	$2.34	15d	21	1.20mi
21 Village Green Dr Ocean View, DE	3.0	2.5	2076	$2,445	$1.18	15d	3	1.33mi
33697 Ashland Dr Frankford, DE	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $450,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $450,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $450,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $450,000 Active 303-char remark
17. 2026-05-05
    historical
18. 2026-03-27
    listed $450,000 Active
19. 2026-03-23
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DE · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,766 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$844/yr (+$70/mo · 91.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$921
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,264
• − Management: −$2,264
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$17,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,248
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River School District
• NCES district ID: 1000680
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $53,838
• Composite: 28.99/100
• National rank: #6620
• State rank: #14 of 26 in DE

Livability — Millville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #13839

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,093
• Population (ZIP): 8,917

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.51%
• Current HPI: 322.2407
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $450,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $450,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-23 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $921 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.