5146 Farnham Dr N · Hugo, MN 55038

$279,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2005 1,742 sqft lot Est $328k · 15% under $350/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom townhome located in the desirable Hugo area! This home offers great potential for someone ready to add their personal touch. Enjoy peaceful views from the deck overlooking scenic wetlands with added privacy. The layout features 2 bedrooms upstairs, a large bathroom with a jacuzzi tub, and convenient upper level laundry. The walkout lower level includes an additional bedroom and living room space perfect for guests or a home office. Easy access to 35E and close to parks, trails, shopping, and restaurants. With some TLC this property has the potential to truly shine!

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Upper level laundry
• Walkout lower level

Tags

• SCENIC WETLANDS
• UPPER LEVEL LAUNDRY
• WALKOUT LOWER LEVEL
• LIVING ROOM SPACE
• EASY ACCESS TO 35E
• CLOSE TO PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community Development association; Monthly association fee; Association provides hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, shared amenities and snow removal; In-ground sprinkler system

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels; Walkout basement
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Stone, metal and vinyl exterior; Below-ground heated shared pool; Irregular lot on paved city streets; Association-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen / breakfast area; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one 14 x 13 on upper level; one 11 x 10 on upper level; one 10 x 10 on lower level)
• Bathrooms: One full bath (upper level); One three-quarter bath (basement)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet; Dishwasher; Dryer; Exhaust fan; Range; Refrigerator; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $280k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $263,204 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,808
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4530 N Empire Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+10%)	14mo	$362,500	$208	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-51,170
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-51,476
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55038

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,668 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,218/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,788

Max offer price $263,204

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15119 Fanning Dr N Hugo, MN	4.0	3.0	1982	$2,750	$1.39	2d	1	0.47mi
15865 Goodview Ave N Unit H Hugo, MN	2.0	2.0	1280	$2,400	$1.88	43d	1	0.89mi
15891 Goodview Ave N Unit E Hugo, MN	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,650	$1.83	17d	1	0.89mi
15865 Goodview Ave N Unit K Hugo, MN	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,650	$1.83	24d	1	0.89mi
15891 Goodview Ave N Unit H Hugo, MN	2.0	2.0	1280	$2,400	$1.88	17d	1	0.89mi
15853 Goodview Ave N Unit K Hugo, MN	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,650	$1.83	1d	1	0.89mi
15891 Goodview Ave N Unit D Hugo, MN	2.0	1.0	1060	$2,150	$2.03	17d	1	0.89mi
4631 Rosemary Way Hugo, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,800	$2.91	1d	1	0.97mi
14891 Generation Ave N Hugo, MN	2.0	2.0	2100	$2,197	$1.05	43d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,218 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,218 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$3,218
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,562
• − Management: −$2,562
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$5,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,378
• After-tax cash flow: $244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White Bear Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 2742360
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $73,051
• Composite: 45.78/100
• National rank: #2564
• State rank: #83 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hugo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hugo, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,061
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,061
• Household income: $130,931
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.33%
• Current HPI: 223.6524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+27.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $279,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-28 Sold (MLS) $153,000 LSAR
• 2014-08-28 Sold (MLS) $153,000 RASM
• 2014-08-28 Sold (MLS) $153,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-27 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-16 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-16 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-12 Listed $157,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-10 Listed $157,900 LSAR
• 2014-07-10 Listed $157,900 RASM
• 2009-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-12 Sold (MLS) $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-22 Listed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $212,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-23 Sold (MLS) $218,270 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-07 Listed $218,870 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-18 Listed $218,870 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,218 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.