Middleton Plan · Waller, TX 77484

$335,090

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,140 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single-story | 4 bedrooms | 3 baths | study option | 2-car attached garage | covered patio | Spacious family room with adjacent island kitchen and casual dining area. The private main suite overlooks the backyard. It has a great bath with a large shower upgrade option and two walk-in closets. Utility room centrally located near secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Private main suite
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• PRIVATE MAIN SUITE
• LARGE SHOWER UPGRADE
• TWO WALK-IN CLOSETS
• UTILITY ROOM CENTRALLY LOCATED

🏗️ New construction. The $335,090 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $337,131.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $335k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-793 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (33.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (41.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (41.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,598 (41.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.07%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,131
• List price: $335,090
• Delta: -0.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
329 Gambels Quail Rd	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,171 (+1%)	4mo	$314,990	$145	84
332 Gambels Quail Rd	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,386 (+12%)	2mo	$325,000	$136	76
124 Coastal Prairie Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,968 (-8%)	1mo	$335,000	$170	74
209 Sandhill Grove Trl	0.15mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,937 (-10%)	4mo	$353,700	$183	69
337 Gambels Quail Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (-11%)	2mo	$325,565	$171	68
205 Sandhill Grove Trl	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,968 (-8%)	4mo	$353,700	$180	67
725 Cross Timbers Trce	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,447 (+14%)	4mo	$455,690	$186	62
429 Mourning Dove Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,366 (+11%)	2mo	$374,115	$158	62
628 Cross Timbers Trce	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,968 (-8%)	2mo	$335,000	$170	62
645 Cross Timbers Trce	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,937 (-10%)	3mo	$335,000	$173	61
316 Goldeneye Duck Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,366 (+11%)	5mo	$363,290	$154	60
308 Goldeneye Duck Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,450 (+14%)	1mo	$325,000	$133	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-110,779
• Equity at exit: $50,267

10-year hold

• IRR: -78.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.94×
• Total profit: $-183,380
• Equity at exit: $29,149

Cash invested: $94,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 82 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $374,990 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1496
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,768
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$421 /mo · $5,057/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,949

Max offer price $222,453

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-560	-5% $-676	+0% $-793	+5% $-909	+10% $-1,025
Rent	-10% $-946	-5% $-869	+0% $-793	+5% $-716	+10% $-639
Rate	-1.0pp $-623	-0.5pp $-707	base $-793	+0.5pp $-880	+1.0pp $-969

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,283
• Closing costs: $10,114
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $346,565

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family property (Middleton plan)Address: 433 Canvasback Way, Waller, TX
• Construction: New construction
• Exterior features: Home listed as a new-construction plan (Middleton)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open concept living space

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-07-24
   days on market $335,090 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-07-23
   days on market $335,090 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-07-22
   days on market $335,090 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-07-21
   days on market $335,090 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-07-20
   days on market $335,090 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-07-18
   days on market $335,090 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-07-16
   days on market $335,090 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-07-15
   days on market $335,090 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-07-14
   days on market $335,090 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-07-13
    days on market $335,090 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-07-13
    days on market $335,090 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-07-11
    days on market $335,090 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-07-10
    days on market $335,090 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-07-09
    days on market $335,090 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-07-07
    days on market $335,090 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-07-06
    days on market $335,090 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-07-06
    days on market $335,090 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-07-05
    days on market $335,090 Active 50 DOM
19. 2026-07-03
    days on market $335,090 Active 49 DOM
20. 2026-07-02
    days on market $335,090 Active 48 DOM
21. 2026-07-01
    days on market $335,090 Active 47 DOM
22. 2026-06-30
    days on market $335,090 Active 46 DOM
23. 2026-06-29
    days on market $335,090 Active 45 DOM
24. 2026-06-28
    days on market $335,090 Active 44 DOM
25. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $335,090 Active 43 DOM
26. 2026-06-26
    days on market $346,565 Active 42 DOM
27. 2026-06-24
    days on market $346,565 Active 40 DOM
28. 2026-06-21
    days on market $346,565 Active 37 DOM
29. 2026-06-18
    days on market $346,565 Active 34 DOM
30. 2026-06-17
    days on market $346,565 Active 33 DOM
31. 2026-06-16
    days on market $346,565 Active 32 DOM
32. 2026-06-15
    days on market $346,565 Active 31 DOM
33. 2026-06-13
    days on market $346,565 Active 29 DOM
34. 2026-06-09
    days on market $346,565 Active 25 DOM
35. 2026-06-08
    days on market $346,565 Active 24 DOM
36. 2026-06-07
    days on market $346,565 Active 23 DOM
37. 2026-06-04
    days on market $346,565 Active 20 DOM
38. 2026-06-03
    days on market $346,565 Active 19 DOM
39. 2026-06-02
    days on market $346,565 Active 18 DOM
40. 2026-06-01
    days on market $346,565 Active 17 DOM
41. 2026-05-31
    days on market $346,565 Active 16 DOM
42. 2026-05-15
    listed $1 Active 438-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,885
• − Property taxes: −$5,057
• − Insurance: −$1,686
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − Depreciation: −$9,807
• Taxable loss: −$15,819
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,797
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen, spacious bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating the landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bedrooms — Modernizes the space and improves aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waller, TX
• County: Harris County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $346,565

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family property (Middleton plan)Address: 433 Canvasback Way, Waller, TX
• Construction: New construction
• Exterior features: Home listed as a new-construction plan (Middleton)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open concept living space