15 Ivy Rd · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$494,987

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,345 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1986 3,920 sqft lot $368/sqft · at area comps Est $497k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Ivy Rd—an exceptional opportunity offering both value and quality updates throughout. This well-maintained home features a recently updated roof, siding, windows, and flooring, providing peace of mind and modern appeal. The kitchen and bathroom have been tastefully renovated with contemporary finishes, creating a move-in ready experience. Standout custom masonry work adds unique character and curb appeal, setting this property apart from the rest. With low property taxes and competitively priced to sell, this home is perfect for buyers seeking affordability without compromising on upgrades. Don’t miss your chance to own this thoughtfully improved home that doesn't require flood insurance!

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 80 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-493 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $408k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $355k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $355k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tangier Smith Elementary School (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,181 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 61% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$85k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($465k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $295k; list at $495k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $354,928 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $496,778
• List price: $494,987
• Delta: -0.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 Dahlia Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+1%)	4mo	$399,000	$293	71
161 Washington Dr	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	5mo	$440,000	$367	60
189 Beaver Dr	0.45mi	4/1.5	1,470 (+9%)	3mo	$560,000	$381	59
62 Orchid Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,222 (-9%)	10mo	$285,000	$233	57
79A Alder Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (+5%)	11mo	$545,000	$385	51
49 Cedar Rd E	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,529 (+14%)	15mo	$465,000	$304	51
79 Dogwood Rd	0.28mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	12mo	$413,000	$344	50
200 Orchid Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (+4%)	13mo	$535,000	$383	49
76 Cedar Rd. Rd E	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,145 (-15%)	9mo	$470,000	$410	49
123 Jefferson Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (+9%)	9mo	$260,000	$178	47
207 Monroe Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,280 (-5%)	15mo	$422,500	$330	37
76 Edgewater Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,215 (-10%)	12mo	$510,000	$420	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $238,177
• Equity at exit: $445,924

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $726,027
• Equity at exit: $961,651

Cash invested: $138,596 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,549 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$495 /mo · $5,936/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$745
• Net cashflow: $-493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,173

Max offer price $407,942

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-213	-5% $-353	+0% $-493	+5% $-633	+10% $-773
Rent	-10% $-773	-5% $-633	+0% $-493	+5% $-353	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-243	-0.5pp $-367	base $-493	+0.5pp $-621	+1.0pp $-751

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,747
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 Washington Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$3,400	$2.95	0d	1	0.19mi
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	45d	1	0.59mi
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $494,987 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $494,987 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $494,987 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $494,987 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $494,987 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $494,987 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $494,987 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $494,987 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $494,987 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $494,987 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $494,987 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $494,987 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $494,987 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $494,987 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $494,987 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $499,987 Active 720-char remark

    Show marketing remark (720 chars)

    Welcome to Ivy Rd—an exceptional opportunity offering both value and quality updates throughout. This well-maintained home features a recently updated roof, siding, windows, and flooring, providing peace of mind and modern appeal. The kitchen and bathroom have been tastefully renovated with contemporary finishes, creating a move-in ready experience. Standout custom masonry work adds unique character and curb appeal, setting this property apart from the rest. With low property taxes and competitively priced to sell, this home is perfect for buyers seeking affordability without compromising on upgrades. Don’t miss your chance to own this thoughtfully improved home that doesn't require flood insurance!

17. 2020-08-12
    soldstatus $295,000
18. 2020-04-02
    soldstatus $295,000
19. 2020-03-12
    soldstatus $295,000 Closed 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome to this Lovely Completely Renovated Cape Style Home. The Home has 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath. Huge eat in kitchen, Large Bedrooms,New Windows, New Roof, New Floors, New Walls, Recessed lighting,New Bath ,Stone Driveway, Patio with a Large Shed, and more Too much to list here. Great care has been taken in the work done in this Home. You Must see it to appreciate it. Close to Shopping Centers and to the Water.No flood Insurance needed and Low Taxes, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond,Business Located At:,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

20. 2020-01-23
    status Under Contract 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome to this Lovely Completely Renovated Cape Style Home. The Home has 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath. Huge eat in kitchen, Large Bedrooms,New Windows, New Roof, New Floors, New Walls, Recessed lighting,New Bath ,Stone Driveway, Patio with a Large Shed, and more Too much to list here. Great care has been taken in the work done in this Home. You Must see it to appreciate it. Close to Shopping Centers and to the Water.No flood Insurance needed and Low Taxes, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond,Business Located At:,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

21. 2020-01-06
    price $299,999 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome to this Lovely Completely Renovated Cape Style Home. The Home has 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath. Huge eat in kitchen, Large Bedrooms,New Windows, New Roof, New Floors, New Walls, Recessed lighting,New Bath ,Stone Driveway, Patio with a Large Shed, and more Too much to list here. Great care has been taken in the work done in this Home. You Must see it to appreciate it. Close to Shopping Centers and to the Water.No flood Insurance needed and Low Taxes, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond,Business Located At:,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

22. 2019-12-21
    price $309,000 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome to this Lovely Completely Renovated Cape Style Home. The Home has 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath. Huge eat in kitchen, Large Bedrooms,New Windows, New Roof, New Floors, New Walls, Recessed lighting,New Bath ,Stone Driveway, Patio with a Large Shed, and more Too much to list here. Great care has been taken in the work done in this Home. You Must see it to appreciate it. Close to Shopping Centers and to the Water.No flood Insurance needed and Low Taxes, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond,Business Located At:,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

23. 2019-11-20
    price $309,999 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome to this Lovely Completely Renovated Cape Style Home. The Home has 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath. Huge eat in kitchen, Large Bedrooms,New Windows, New Roof, New Floors, New Walls, Recessed lighting,New Bath ,Stone Driveway, Patio with a Large Shed, and more Too much to list here. Great care has been taken in the work done in this Home. You Must see it to appreciate it. Close to Shopping Centers and to the Water.No flood Insurance needed and Low Taxes, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond,Business Located At:,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

24. 2019-10-23
    listed $329,999 New 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome to this Lovely Completely Renovated Cape Style Home. The Home has 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath. Huge eat in kitchen, Large Bedrooms,New Windows, New Roof, New Floors, New Walls, Recessed lighting,New Bath ,Stone Driveway, Patio with a Large Shed, and more Too much to list here. Great care has been taken in the work done in this Home. You Must see it to appreciate it. Close to Shopping Centers and to the Water.No flood Insurance needed and Low Taxes, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond,Business Located At:,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

25. 2019-04-05
    soldstatus $99,900 Closed
26. 2019-03-21
    status Under Contract
27. 2019-02-14
    listed $99,900 New
28. 2018-12-22
    historical
29. 2018-12-07
    price $99,900
30. 2018-10-26
    price $109,900
31. 2018-09-21
    listed $119,900 New
32. 1991-05-08
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,936 · $495/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,151 · $596/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,215/yr (+$101/mo · 20.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,727
• − Property taxes: −$5,936
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,407
• − Management: −$3,407
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$14,761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,543
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+488.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $499,987 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-12 Sold (MLS) $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-06 Price Changed $299,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-21 Price Changed $309,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-20 Price Changed $309,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-23 Listed $329,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-05 Sold (MLS) $99,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-21 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-14 Listed $99,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-07 Price Changed $99,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-26 Price Changed $109,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-21 Listed $119,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,936 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.