3206 Melbourne St · Houston, TX 77026

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 212 Days on market

Built 1940 5,501 sqft lot $154/sqft · at area comps Est $170k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 5,501 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 212 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-759/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fonwood Early Childhood Ctr (450 students, 100% FRL); Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Northside H S (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,168 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 448 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,769 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,576
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: 0.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3012 Melbourne St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,075 (-3%)	4mo	$169,000	$157	89
3819 King St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,134 (+3%)	21mo	$96,000	$85	63
5710 Cherry St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,039 (-6%)	1mo	$159,000	$153	60
2719 Milwaukee St	0.55mi	3/3.0	1,148 (+4%)	2mo	$215,000	$187	58
7110 Eugene St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,098 (-0%)	14mo	$190,777	$174	58
2908 Woodard St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,074 (-3%)	24mo	$70,000	$65	56
2512 Caplin St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,158 (+5%)	20mo	$174,000	$150	54
4007 King St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,235 (+12%)	0mo	$150,000	$121	52
6512 Jensen Dr	0.25mi	3/—	1,259 (+14%)	18mo	$249,999	$199	50
4007 King St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,211 (+10%)	20mo	$209,000	$173	39
4009 King St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,211 (+10%)	21mo	$209,000	$173	38
4011 King St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,211 (+10%)	23mo	$229,000	$189	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $24,754
• Equity at exit: $85,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $84,262
• Equity at exit: $138,394

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 448
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,408 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,556/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,488

Max offer price $158,826

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-15	+0% $-63	+5% $-111	+10% $-159
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-119	+0% $-63	+5% $-8	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-20	base $-63	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3107 Melbourne St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	956	$1,500	$1.57	45d	1	0.06mi
3810 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,599	$1.23	16d	1	0.41mi
3812 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,545	$1.19	7d	1	0.43mi
2110 Melbourne St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	26d	1	0.53mi
7301 Jensen Dr Apt 12 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$930	$1.06	9d	1	0.62mi
7301 Jensen Dr Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$999	$1.14	9d	1	0.62mi
7320 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,176	$1.26	3d	5	0.62mi
7506 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,285	$1.60	0d	18	0.74mi
6869 Arto St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	18d	6	0.77mi
2516 Ivy St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	45d	1	0.85mi
4711 Sayers St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	45d	1	1.02mi
4626 Shreveport Blvd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,490	$1.30	15d	1	1.03mi
4111 Cavalcade St Unit 5 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	757	$825	$1.09	45d	1	1.23mi
5117 Lavender St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	740	$1,040	$1.41	9d	4	1.24mi
5117 Lavender St Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0	780	$1,090	$1.40	21d	2	1.24mi
5117 Lavender St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	740	$1,065	$1.44	17d	8	1.24mi
8326 Curry Rd Unit 1227052P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1270	$3,317	$2.61	1d	1	1.29mi
4326 Plaag St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	1.33mi
6918 Irvington Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	45d	1	1.37mi
4422 Weaver Rd Apt 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	45d	1	1.41mi
4203 Hirsch Rd Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	758	$975	$1.29	0d	1	1.43mi
4203 Hirsch Rd Unit 5 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	758	$950	$1.25	45d	1	1.43mi
4442 Weaver Rd Unit 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	26d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $170,000 Pending 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $170,000 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active Under Contract 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    statusdays on market $170,000 Active Under Contract 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-03-18
    status Active
13. 2026-03-16
    historical
14. 2026-01-16
    price $195,000
15. 2025-11-17
    listed $220,000 Active
16. 2024-03-13
    soldstatus
17. 2023-12-06
    soldstatus
18. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,556 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$555/yr (+$46/mo · 21.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,556
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,351
• − Management: −$1,351
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$884
• After-tax cash flow: $125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,556 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.