2508 Farrier Ln · Aubrey, TX 76227

$298,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 2025 6,011 sqft lot $160/sqft · 26% below area Est $405k · 26% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home boasts a convenient and low-maintenance layout. Three bedrooms are secluded near the front of the home, leading to a spacious and flexible open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining room and family room meet. Nestled into a private rear corner is the lavish owner's suite, featuring a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee of $600; Association covers full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management fees; HOA managed by Legacy Southwest Property Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Garage faces front
• Security: Prewired; Smoke detector(s); Fire alarm
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Concrete, curbs and sidewalk; Located in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; New construction (2025, incomplete)
• Construction: Brick and other exterior materials; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Gutters; Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Natural stone/granite counters; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Plumbed for gas in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric); Electric heating; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; ENERGY STAR/ACCA RSI qualified installation
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Vented exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Aubrey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#332 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jackie Fuller El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 735 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,510 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.93%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,679
• List price: $298,999
• Delta: -10.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
664 Stud Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,902 (+2%)	0mo	$306,999	$161	77
1120 Rushing Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,861 (-0%)	2mo	$361,921	$194	69
639 Stud Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,062 (+10%)	1mo	$320,999	$156	60
615 Mare Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,062 (+10%)	1mo	$321,999	$156	60
2043 Stable Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-8%)	1mo	$260,699	$152	59
624 Haskell Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-6%)	2mo	$271,599	$154	58
728 Dressage Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-8%)	1mo	$342,999	$199	55
608 Arabian Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,062 (+10%)	1mo	$308,999	$150	55
604 Arabian Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,062 (+10%)	1mo	$314,999	$153	55
659 Arabian Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-14%)	0mo	$289,999	$181	50
2212 Pommel Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-14%)	2mo	$294,999	$184	43
1733 Edgeway	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,589 (-15%)	0mo	$324,990	$205	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-81,057
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-128,670
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,155 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,679

Max offer price $239,124

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2009 Sesaro Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2024	$2,340	$1.16	43d	1	0.39mi
660 Stud Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,499	$1.21	1d	1	0.42mi
2061 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,116	$1.28	24d	1	0.50mi
608 Stud Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,250	$1.09	24d	1	0.52mi
2220 Pommel Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$1,995	$0.97	10d	1	0.55mi
2028 Sulky Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	43d	1	0.56mi
2024 Sulky Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,046	$1.40	12d	1	0.56mi
608 Arabian Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,150	$1.04	7d	1	0.57mi
2029 Welsh Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,066	$1.36	12d	1	0.57mi
604 Arabian Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,150	$1.04	7d	1	0.57mi
2051 Stable Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,100	$1.22	43d	1	0.57mi
2037 Derby Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,995	$1.16	20d	1	0.57mi
1641 Meadow Crest Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,100	$1.40	24d	1	0.58mi
2043 Stable Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,850	$1.08	17d	1	0.59mi
2020 Belgian Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	24d	1	0.59mi
2021 Derby Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,890	$1.24	43d	1	0.61mi
2031 Stable Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,950	$1.29	6d	1	0.61mi
1713 Meadow Crest Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	24d	1	0.63mi
2009 Derby Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,950	$1.13	5d	1	0.63mi
717 Dressage Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,750	$1.15	43d	1	0.65mi
732 Dressage Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,986	$1.30	43d	1	0.66mi
728 Dressage Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,850	$1.08	15d	1	0.67mi
206 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	24d	1	1.18mi
215 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,795	$1.33	5d	1	1.21mi
215 Linda St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,825	$1.35	44d	1	1.21mi
717 Presidio St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	18d	1	1.30mi
901 King St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	1761	$2,625	$1.49	2d	1	1.32mi
933 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,100	$1.45	43d	1	1.37mi
601 Countryside Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	4d	1	1.42mi
1000 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	2119	$2,595	$1.22	43d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,999 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $298,999 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $298,999 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $298,999 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $363,999 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $363,999 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $363,999 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $363,999 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $363,999 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $363,999 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $363,999 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $363,999 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $363,999 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $363,999 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $363,999 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $363,999 Active 453-char remark
17. 2026-03-29
    price $363,999 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    This new single-story home boasts a convenient and low-maintenance layout. Three bedrooms are secluded near the front of the home, leading to a spacious and flexible open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining room and family room meet. Nestled into a private rear corner is the lavish owner's suite, featuring a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

18. 2026-03-22
    listed $362,999 Active 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    This new single-story home boasts a convenient and low-maintenance layout. Three bedrooms are secluded near the front of the home, leading to a spacious and flexible open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining room and family room meet. Nestled into a private rear corner is the lavish owner's suite, featuring a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,069
• − Management: −$2,069
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$10,303
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,473
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aubrey

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #7241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aubrey, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 62,127
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $298,999 NTREIS
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $298,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Listed $363,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $363,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Listed $362,999 Zillow