811 22nd St · Cairo, IL 62914

$7,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Other · 106 Days on market

8,712 sqft lot $5/sqft · 82% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 story home in historic Cairo, Illinois! This home is not habitable. This property is being Sold AS-IS. No interior access to structure allowed. Buyers Must Do Their Own Due Diligence to Verify Number of Beds, Baths, Square Footage, Room Sizes, Lot Size & Any Other Property Details. Listing Broker & Seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties (expressed or implied) or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information contained herein.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 106 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $8k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $874 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $8k).
• Recommended offer: $7k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#517 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cairo USD 1 (town): math 2% / reading 2% proficiency, ranked #620 of 620 in IL (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $52 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $164 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alexander County population projected at -53% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $6,825 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 15.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 146.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 499.23%
• DSCR: 23.21
• GRM: 0.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $40,633
• List price: $7,500
• Delta: -81.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 27.05×
• Total profit: $54,706
• Equity at exit: $1,394

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 57.95×
• Total profit: $119,588
• Equity at exit: $1,133

Cash invested: $2,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62914

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 0.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,171 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$39
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $110/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $874

Break-even live

Break-even rent $65

Max offer price $7,500

Occupancy floor 20%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,875
• Closing costs: $225
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $7,500 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $7,500 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $7,500 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $7,500 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $7,500 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $7,500 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $7,500 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $7,500 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $7,500 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $7,500 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $7,500 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $7,500 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $7,500 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $7,500 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $7,500 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-03-04
    listed $7,500 Active 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    2 story home in historic Cairo, Illinois! This home is not habitable. This property is being Sold AS-IS. No interior access to structure allowed. Buyers Must Do Their Own Due Diligence to Verify Number of Beds, Baths, Square Footage, Room Sizes, Lot Size & Any Other Property Details. Listing Broker & Seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties (expressed or implied) or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information contained herein.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $110 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $140 · $12/mo
• Expected delta: +$30/yr (+$3/mo · 27.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$420
• − Property taxes: −$110
• − Insurance: −$38
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,124
• − Management: −$1,124
• − Depreciation: −$218
• Taxable income: $11,020
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,645
• After-tax cash flow: $7,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo USD 1
• NCES district ID: 1708070
• Math proficiency: 2% ▲ 2.50%
• Reading proficiency: 2% ▲ 2.50%
• Median HH income: $22,594
• Composite: 0.79/100
• National rank: #10113
• State rank: #620 of 620 in IL

Livability — Cairo

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #517
• US rank: #10655

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cairo, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,785

Population outlook (Alexander County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,931 people
• By 2030: 4,184 · -15.1%
• By 2040: 3,052 · -38.1%
• By 2050: 2,325 · -52.8%
• By 2075: 1,567 · -68.2%
• By 2100: 1,350 · -72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 29% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Alexander

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 39.8% · R 59.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.9pp toward R · 2008: 12.6pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+14.2 2016: R+8.3 2012: D+13.6 2008: D+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.18%
• Current HPI: 54.5123
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $7,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $110 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.