7880 Shady Ln · Beaumont, TX 77713

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Want to live outside the city? Here is your opportunity. We are selling a 3 bedroom 2 bath freshly remodeled home. New complete HVAC, plumbing, electrical, appliances and such. It sits on 1.58 acres. I have recently got the property surveyed. Property has been cleared and is ready to have its garden, chickens or whatever you are into. For further information please reach out to me @ 4096566077 ask for Javier FOR SALE BY OWNER

Key facts

• New plumbing
• 1.58 acres
• New electrical

Tags

• FRESHLY REMODELED
• COMPLETE HVAC
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW APPLIANCES
• 1.58 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.3% in Beaumont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#739 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Beaumont ISD (urban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #789 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dishman El (math 19% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 522 students, 88% FRL); Vincent Middle (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 688 students, 75% FRL); West Brook Sr H S (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,245 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 287 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,710 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.48%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,164
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-29,976
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77713

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,697 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,491/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,555

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $168	+0% $113	+5% $57	+10% $2
Rent	-10% $-21	-5% $46	+0% $113	+5% $180	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $162	base $113	+0.5pp $62	+1.0pp $11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2024-01-30
   soldstatus
2. 2024-01-26
   soldstatus Closed
3. 2024-01-05
   status Pending
4. 2024-01-04
   listed $55,000 Active
5. 2004-08-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,491 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,078/yr (+$173/mo · 139.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,491
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,629
• − Management: −$1,629
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,955
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$469
• After-tax cash flow: $1,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809670
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,683
• Composite: 15.43/100
• National rank: #9316
• State rank: #789 of 826 in TX

Livability — Beaumont

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #739
• US rank: #13710

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 125,901
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,541
• Household income: $91,330
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 444.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.58%
• Current HPI: 173.8851
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-26 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2024-01-05 Pending — BBOR
• 2024-01-04 Listed $55,000 BBOR
• 2004-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,491 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.