565 Ayrshire Way Unit H · Newport News, VA 23602

$121,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,068 sqft · Condo · 17 Days on market

Built 1974 Fair condition $425/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $425 HOA
• Parking
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by UNITED PROPERTIES; Monthly HOA fee of 425; Condo association amenities: ground maintenance, pool, trash pickup, water

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned/reserved parking (1 space)
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Attached condo; 2 living levels; 2 stories; Located on condo level 2
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt shingle / composite roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Balcony; Porch; Attic; Breakfast area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range / Electric range
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom; Additional bedroom; No bedroom and full bathroom on first floor
• Flooring: Bamboo flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room; 220 V electric outlet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $121k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($393/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $121k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kiln Creek Elementary (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #851 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 618 students, 93% FRL); Denbigh High (math 32% / reading 65%, grade D, #301 of 319 statewide, top 95%, 1,225 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 55% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.2%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $837 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,185 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.16%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,582
• Equity at exit: $18,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $35,767
• Equity at exit: $10,462

Cash invested: $33,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23602

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,638 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$635
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$151 /mo · $1,815/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$425
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $121,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $75	+0% $33	+5% $-9	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-32	+0% $33	+5% $97	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $63	base $33	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,250
• Closing costs: $3,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Springhouse Way Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$1,589	$2.35	3d	47	0.13mi
12663 Daybreak Cir Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	944	$1,500	$1.59	45d	1	0.40mi
12851 Daybreak Cir Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	942	$1,450	$1.54	45d	1	0.45mi
804 Newday Ct Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	16d	1	0.49mi
161 Jenness Ln Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1121	$1,537	$1.37	45d	1	0.53mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 520307 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,614	$1.44	45d	1	0.54mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 621307 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,499	$1.33	45d	1	0.54mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 610301 Newport News, VA	1.0	1.0	748	$1,379	$1.84	45d	1	0.54mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 601303 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,649	$1.47	25d	1	0.54mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 510305 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,699	$1.51	5d	1	0.54mi
1 Cedarwood Way Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,711	$1.63	45d	1	0.63mi
108 Tazewell Rd Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,900	$1.66	45d	1	0.63mi
14353 Deloice Cres Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,790	$1.84	3d	11	0.69mi
104 Landmark Ct Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,504	$1.47	3d	1	0.76mi
900 Radius Way Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	841	$2,143	$2.55	3d	22	0.76mi
153 Windsor Castle Dr Unit A Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	985	$1,450	$1.47	11d	1	0.79mi
163 Windsor Castle Dr Unit B Newport News, VA	2.0	2.5	1369	$1,750	$1.28	22d	1	0.86mi
522 Knolls Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1387	$1,925	$1.39	25d	2	0.89mi
522 Knolls Dr #308 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1387	$1,950	$1.41	22d	1	0.90mi
381 Advocate Ct Unit F Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,325	$0.95	45d	1	0.93mi
397 Deputy Ln Unit A Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,925	$1.35	22d	1	0.95mi
12750 Saint George St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,300	$0.96	8d	1	0.98mi
168-A Heritage Way Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,424	$1.57	3d	12	1.02mi
100 River Trace Way Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	678	$1,250	$1.84	4d	4	1.03mi
416 Hustings Ln Unit F Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,850	$1.30	16d	1	1.04mi
416 Hustings Ln Newport News, VA	3.0	3.0	1422	$1,850	$1.30	13d	1	1.04mi
500 Collinwood Pl Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	865	$1,195	$1.38	17d	1	1.09mi
14534 Old Courthouse Way Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$1,250	$1.71	4d	14	1.09mi
218 Mona Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	993	$2,150	$2.17	25d	1	1.13mi
4327 Lacy Cove Ln Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1382	$2,200	$1.59	11d	1	1.14mi
500 Big Forrest Ct Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	828	$1,383	$1.67	5d	4	1.16mi
14505 Old Courthouse Way Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	970	$1,500	$1.55	5d	3	1.16mi
13441 Warwick Blvd Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,250	$1.25	25d	1	1.22mi
408 Savage Dr Unit A Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1380	$1,895	$1.37	45d	1	1.23mi
13302 Garden State Dr Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,475	$1.61	4d	19	1.27mi
213 Picard Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	4d	1	1.29mi
305 Mona Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	1016	$1,650	$1.62	11d	1	1.32mi
229 Telford Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,495	$1.66	45d	1	1.34mi
372 Beechmont Dr Newport News, VA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,004	$1.34	8d	2	1.45mi
15 Otsego Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,900	$1.48	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $425 · $5,100/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $121,000 Under Contract 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $121,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $121,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $121,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $121,000 Active Under Contract 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $121,000 Active Under Contract 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $121,000 Active Under Contract 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $121,000 Active Under Contract 3 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $121,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,778
• − Property taxes: −$1,815
• − Insurance: −$605
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,572
• − Management: −$1,572
• − HOA: −$5,100
• − Depreciation: −$3,520
• Taxable loss: −$1,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$314
• After-tax cash flow: $707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This condo requires moderate repairs to its exterior and landscaping, with minor maintenance needed. Upgrades in these areas can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major wood siding — Significant wear and tear
• Minor landscaping — Overgrown bushes need trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both paint touch-ups — Improves interior and exterior appearance
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
wood siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown bushes need trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both paint touch-ups — Improves interior and exterior appearance ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport News City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102640
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,644
• Composite: 37.7/100
• National rank: #4360
• State rank: #112 of 131 in VA

Livability — Newport News

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4018

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport News, VA
• County: Newport News City · 178,950 people
• City population: 178,950
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 42,265
• Household income: $79,475
• Rent vs Own: 46.7% rent · 53.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1696.0

Population outlook (Newport News County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 181,076 people
• By 2030: 179,683 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 174,649 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 167,407 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 147,597 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 122,144 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newport News

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.8) · D 63.7% · R 34.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 28.7pp · 2024: 28.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.8 2020: D+32.9 2016: D+25.4 2012: D+30.0 2008: D+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.28%
• Current HPI: 283.0889
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.22%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $121,000 REINMLS