4809 Jackie Cir · Pace, FL 32571

$114,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1988 0.50 ac lot Est $179k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property offers a lot of opportunities. Great location in Pace, FL. Near schools and shopping. Mobile Home sitting on a . 25 acre lot, with addtional . 25 acre lot that can have a another Mobile home on it, with a total of . 50 of an acre. Has a nice, large front porch and an extra-large back cover patio with a working Hot Tub. Over-sized kitchen and Living area. Large Main Bathroom with walk-in closet. Both spare bedrooms have oversized closets. Would overall be a great investment for an investor, with a little TLC. Don't miss this great opportunity!!!

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 71 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is resale; Located on a county maintained road; Lot is approximately 0.5 acres; Homestead eligible
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Front entrance parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Aluminum wiring (electric)
• Home design: Mobile/Manufactured or Modular home; Single-story; Off-grade foundation
• Construction: Off grade foundation; One level
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Central access lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater; Kitchen on the first level
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first level (each approximately 13' x 10')
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Living/dining combo

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $923 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $115k implies a 490% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,099 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.40%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,992
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4833 Guernsey Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,719 (+8%)	7mo	$99,000	$58	71
3744 Legend Creek Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-7%)	9mo	$169,000	$114	70
4844 Gary Cir	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (+2%)	20mo	$184,000	$113	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $39,553
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $107,672
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $437/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $923

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $114,999

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4606 Southern Pl Milton, FL	3.0	1.5	1431	$1,500	$1.05	14d	1	0.68mi
3492 Quail Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,900	$1.16	23d	1	0.76mi
5097 Conservation Cir Milton, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2080	$2,100	$1.01	23d	1	1.18mi
3614 Hawks Landing Cir Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1953	$2,100	$1.08	23d	1	1.31mi
4203 Frasier Ln Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1755	$2,195	$1.25	23d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,999 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,999 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,999 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,999 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,999 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,999 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,999 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,999 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,999 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,999 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,999 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,999 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,999 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,999 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,999 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $119,999
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $149,999 Active
18. 1990-02-01
    soldstatus $19,500
19. 1988-07-01
    soldstatus $10,800
20. 1987-05-01
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $437 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$517/yr (+$43/mo · 118.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$437
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $9,751
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,340
• After-tax cash flow: $8,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+990.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $119,999 PARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $149,999 PARMLS
• 1990-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,800 Public Records
• 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $437 · -49.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.