9661 Curry Hwy #134 · Arley, AL 35503

$385,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Condo · 183 Days on market

Built 2010 Good condition $286/sqft · 10% below area Est $429k · 10% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo sits on the third floor of the middle building, showcasing stunning panoramic views of Smith Lake’s main channel. The spacious open-concept living area offers both comfort and low-maintenance living. Enjoy the convenience of a covered boat slip in deep water, an in-ground pool, grilling area, and meticulously maintained community grounds. The HOA includes exterior insurance, pool and grounds maintenance, sewer, garbage, and gated access for added peace of mind. Completely remodeled in 2023, the resort features a fresh, modern look and updated amenities. With easy access to the boat slip and a true lock-and-leave lifestyle, this property is ideal for effortless, year-round lake living.

Key facts

• Covered boat slip
• In-ground pool
• Gated access

Tags

• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• COVERED BOAT SLIP
• IN-GROUND POOL
• GRILLING AREA
• GATED ACCESS
• COMPLETELY REMODELED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $385k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $385k).
• Recommended offer: $339k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#187 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Winston County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #91 of 129 in AL (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1 units permitted in Winston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winston County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $338,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.18%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $429,087
• List price: $385,000
• Delta: -10.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-43,895
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-13,552
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35503

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$481 /mo · $5,775/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$401
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$890
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,876

Max offer price $385,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $552	-5% $418	+0% $285	+5% $152	+10% $19
Rent	-10% $-49	-5% $118	+0% $285	+5% $453	+10% $620
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $383	base $285	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9661 Curry Hwy #224 Jasper, AL	3.0	2.0	1450	$5,000	$3.45	44d	1	0.02mi
9661 Curry Hwy Unit 132 Jasper, AL	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,500	$2.50	3d	1	0.02mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashlandscapingpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $385,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $385,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $385,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $385,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $385,000 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   price $385,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    price $399,900 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    This beautifully furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo sits on the third floor of the middle building, showcasing stunning panoramic views of Smith Lake’s main channel. The spacious open-concept living area offers both comfort and low-maintenance living. Enjoy the convenience of a covered boat slip in deep water, an in-ground pool, grilling area, and meticulously maintained community grounds. The HOA includes exterior insurance, pool and grounds maintenance, sewer, garbage, and gated access for added peace of mind. Completely remodeled in 2023, the resort features a fresh, modern look and updated amenities. With easy access to the boat slip and a true lock-and-leave lifestyle, this property is ideal for effortless, year-round lake living.

15. 2025-12-15
    listed $419,900 Active 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    This beautifully furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo sits on the third floor of the middle building, showcasing stunning panoramic views of Smith Lake’s main channel. The spacious open-concept living area offers both comfort and low-maintenance living. Enjoy the convenience of a covered boat slip in deep water, an in-ground pool, grilling area, and meticulously maintained community grounds. The HOA includes exterior insurance, pool and grounds maintenance, sewer, garbage, and gated access for added peace of mind. Completely remodeled in 2023, the resort features a fresh, modern look and updated amenities. With easy access to the boat slip and a true lock-and-leave lifestyle, this property is ideal for effortless, year-round lake living.

16. 2025-11-06
    price $419,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$5,775
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,067
• − Management: −$4,067
• − HOA: −$4,812
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$2,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$617
• After-tax cash flow: $4,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This beautifully furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo is in excellent condition with modern amenities and stunning views. It is completely remodeled in 2023 and ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating flooring in common areas — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating flooring in common areas — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winston County
• NCES district ID: 0103580
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,471
• Composite: 21.39/100
• National rank: #8352
• State rank: #91 of 129 in AL

Livability — Arley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #15542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,601

Population outlook (Winston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,474 people
• By 2030: 21,568 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 19,710 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 17,950 · -20.1%
• By 2075: 14,468 · -35.6%
• By 2100: 11,554 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+83.6) · D 7.9% · R 91.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.4pp toward R · 2008: -63.3pp · 2024: -83.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+83.6 2020: R+81.7 2016: R+81.5 2012: R+72.3 2008: R+63.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.26%
• Current HPI: 172.9286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $399,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $419,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $419,900 Greater Alabama MLS