31 W Fairview Ave · Northville, NY 11901

$998,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1939 7,405 sqft lot $739/sqft · 27% below area Est $1365k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on the serene North Fork of Long Island, this fantastic, well maintained beach home offers an effortless blend of coastal charm and easy living. The property boasts a rare private beach and wonderful panoramic water views. Airy living spaces capture the beauty of the Long Island Sound. Whether enjoying a quiet morning with coffee on the deck overlooking the sparkling sound or hosting the most beautiful sunset gatherings, this home is a true sanctuary where relaxation and natural beauty come together. Enjoy the beach, wineries, restaurants and everything the North Fork has to offer. Your next home!!

Key facts

• Private beach
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH
• PANORAMIC WATER VIEWS
• DECK OVERLOOKING SOUND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Heated garage; 6 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: PSEG electric; Propane; Cesspool sewer; Public water available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Phone available; Trash collection (public)
• Home design: Single family residence; Actual property condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Partial attic; No basement; Built/recorded living area per public records
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Wooded views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Open kitchen; New windows; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $998k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($67k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $998k).
• Recommended offer: $983k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $279k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($983k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $998k implies a 544% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $983,030 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.80%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,365,387
• List price: $998,000
• Delta: -26.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 N Walk	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (0%)	3mo	$1,240,000	$919	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $191,189
• Equity at exit: $148,805

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $620,532
• Equity at exit: $86,289

Cash invested: $279,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,234
• Tax from tax record: −$657 /mo · $7,889/yr
• Insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,150
• Net cashflow: $5,543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,983

Max offer price $998,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $249,500
• Closing costs: $29,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 North Walk Aquebogue, NY	4.0	1.5	975	$15,000	$15.38	24d	1	0.06mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $998,000 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $998,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $998,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $998,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $998,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-05-14
   listed $998,000 Active 618-char remark
7. 2026-05-13
   historical
8. 2026-04-06
   listed $1,049,000 Active
9. 1995-01-25
   soldstatus $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,889 · $657/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,378 · $1,031/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,489/yr (+$374/mo · 56.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $180,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,904
• − Property taxes: −$7,889
• − Insurance: −$4,990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,400
• − Management: −$14,400
• − Depreciation: −$29,033
• Taxable income: $53,385
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,812
• After-tax cash flow: $53,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+543.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $998,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listed $1,049,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,889 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.