1308 Draper Ln · Forney, TX 75126

$247,475

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,382 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 5,053 sqft lot $179/sqft · 13% below area Est $284k · 13% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FAVORITE! PRICED APPROX $15,000 BELOW 2026 TAX VALUE-PRICED TO SELL! Original owners & and IT SHOWS-COME SEE! Picture-perfect & move-in ready single-story is nestled inside the sought-after lakeside Travis Ranch community. Light, bright, & open with room to breathe, this thoughtfully designed floorplan also features a rare front elevation that truly POPS. Gleaming LVP hardwoods greet you upon entry & flow throughout the kitchen & all main living areas. Designer finishes shine throughout, including quartz countertops, shaker-style cabinetry, upgraded hardware, stainless steel appliances, LED lighting, & more. The private primary retreat is split from the secondary bedrooms for maximum privacy & offers an extended vanity & spacious shower. Situated on an interior lot, the pool-sized backyard features a substantial stone retaining wall & fencing for added seclusion—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy resort-style community amenities including pools, splash park, tennis & sport courts, pavilions, & playgrounds. Plus, the brand new Costco & H-E-B are just around the corner, with the heart of Forney only 15 minutes away. Come see for yourself!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Led lighting
• Stone retaining wall

Tags

• POOL SIZED BACKYARD
• STONE RETAINING WALL
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETRY
• LED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (31.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewis El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 763 students, 50% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 26% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2639 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 56d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,076 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.59%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,409
• List price: $247,475
• Delta: -12.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1515 Dilley Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-2%)	0mo	$240,000	$178	89
1050 Rio Bravo Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+6%)	2mo	$235,000	$160	82
2423 Lemco Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,490 (+8%)	2mo	$240,000	$161	75
1202 Trevino Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,286 (-7%)	4mo	$243,000	$189	70
4110 Wintergreen Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,247 (-10%)	3mo	$225,000	$180	62
2431 Rosharon Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+14%)	1mo	$248,000	$157	59
4138 Wintergreen Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-13%)	4mo	$199,900	$166	56
4423 Culrin Way	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+8%)	6mo	$229,900	$154	55
5402 Majestro Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-13%)	2mo	$225,000	$187	54
6031 Determine Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-8%)	1mo	$225,000	$178	52
5823 Grindstone Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-9%)	3mo	$220,000	$175	52
2203 Vance Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+13%)	3mo	$254,900	$163	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-70,975
• Equity at exit: $36,899

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-109,513
• Equity at exit: $21,397

Cash invested: $69,293 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.1 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $252,300 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 63 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2639
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,054 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,298
• Tax from tax record: −$624 /mo · $7,484/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,608

Max offer price $170,076

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-298	-5% $-368	+0% $-438	+5% $-508	+10% $-578
Rent	-10% $-600	-5% $-519	+0% $-438	+5% $-357	+10% $-276
Rate	-1.0pp $-314	-0.5pp $-375	base $-438	+0.5pp $-502	+1.0pp $-568

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,869
• Closing costs: $7,424
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5516 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,875	$1.48	93d	1	0.16mi
2401 Lalun Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,049	$1.11	43d	1	0.17mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	62d	1	0.18mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	55d	1	0.18mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,399	$1.29	73d	1	0.19mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,299	$1.24	51d	1	0.19mi
5537 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,740	$1.40	28d	1	0.20mi
1304 Broaddus Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1624	$2,100	$1.29	10d	1	0.32mi
5661 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,945	$1.22	43d	1	0.35mi
2157 Clarion Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,975	$1.23	93d	1	0.36mi
4349 Johnstown Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,250	$1.79	19d	1	0.40mi
5693 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1685	$1,839	$1.09	56d	1	0.40mi
4416 Culrin Way Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	38d	1	0.43mi
4307 Johnstown Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,745	$1.40	73d	1	0.47mi
4423 Culrin Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1497	$2,250	$1.50	26d	1	0.47mi
2412 Bold Venture Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,895	$1.31	93d	1	0.48mi
4119 Wintergreen Dr Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,500	$1.48	68d	1	0.49mi
4101 Wintergreen Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,645	$1.33	55d	1	0.52mi
6001 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,679	$1.17	71d	1	0.64mi
2047 Enchanted Rock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,000	$1.22	53d	1	0.65mi
5837 Grindstone Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,300	$1.84	4d	1	0.66mi
6005 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,895	$1.53	0d	1	0.66mi
5906 Nyquist Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,899	$1.27	10d	1	0.66mi
6011 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	53d	1	0.68mi
6011 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	20d	1	0.68mi
5452 Montrose Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,750	$1.48	53d	1	0.68mi
6021 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	73d	1	0.71mi
5628 Elwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,750	$1.18	48d	1	0.73mi
5811 Grindstone Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,999	$1.39	93d	1	0.74mi
6038 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,895	$1.54	93d	1	0.75mi
5603 Elwood Dr Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,500	$1.49	93d	1	0.80mi
6084 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,700	$1.37	52d	1	0.82mi
5733 Barbaro Dr Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,790	$1.77	48d	1	0.83mi
6094 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,049	$1.37	3d	1	0.84mi
6077 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	73d	1	0.84mi
6101 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,850	$1.28	93d	1	0.88mi
2117 Silsbee Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,995	$1.20	66d	1	0.95mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1619	$1,895	$1.17	62d	1	1.08mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1619	$1,895	$1.17	64d	1	1.08mi
1004 Trickham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,250	$1.23	48d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail $36/mo · $432/yr

• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $247,475 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $247,475 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $247,475 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $247,475 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $247,475 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $247,475 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $247,475 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $247,475 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $247,475 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $247,475 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $247,475 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    price $247,475 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $247,485 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $247,485 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $247,485 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $247,485 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $247,485 Active 114 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $247,485 Active 113 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $247,485 Active 112 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $247,485 Active 111 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $247,485 Active 110 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $247,485 Active 109 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $247,485 Active 108 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $247,485 Active 107 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $247,485 Active 106 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $247,485 Active 105 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $247,485 Active 103 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $247,485 Active 102 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $247,485 Active 101 DOM
30. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $247,485 Active 100 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $247,490 Active 99 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $247,490 Active 98 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $247,490 Active 97 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $247,490 Active 96 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $247,490 Active 95 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $247,490 Active 94 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $247,490 Active 93 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $247,490 Active 92 DOM
39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $247,490 Active 90 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $247,490 Active 88 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $247,490 Active 87 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $247,490 Active 84 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $247,490 Active 83 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $247,490 Active 82 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $247,490 Active 81 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $247,490 Active 79 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $247,490 Active 78 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $247,490 Active 75 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $247,490 Active 74 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $247,490 Active 73 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,484 · $624/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,484 · $624/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,862
• − Property taxes: −$7,484
• − Insurance: −$1,237
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,972
• − Management: −$1,972
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$7,199
• Taxable loss: −$9,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,283
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,910–$20,730 screening

This move-in ready single-story home in Travis Ranch is priced below its tax value and features modern finishes and a desirable front elevation.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace front door — Improves curb appeal and security ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bedrooms — Enhances comfort and value ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Enhances ambiance and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lewis El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Jackson Middle High North Forney H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $247,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $268,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $318,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+195.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,484 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.