1676 Wood Lily Ln · Custer, SD 57730

$129,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $106/sqft · at area comps Est $127k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Nicely landscaped
• Storage shed
• Paved street

Tags

• METAL CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• PAVED STREET
• NICELY LANDSCAPED
• VIEW OF THE BLACK HILLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Woodland Meadows Mobile Home Court (directions: east Custer, off US Hwy. 16A)

Exterior

• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Equipped with dishwasher, gas range/oven, microwave, refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 main-level bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Gas range; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.2% in Custer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#27 in SD, #3,937 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Custer School District 16-1 (rural): math 40% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #37 of 59 in SD (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Custer Elementary - 02 (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #134 of 253 statewide, top 55%, 304 students, 19% FRL); Custer Jr. High - 05 (math 47% / reading 62%, grade B-, #36 of 143 statewide, top 29%, 101 students, 22% FRL); Custer High School - 01 (math 37% / reading 72%, grade C-, #53 of 151 statewide, top 41%, 284 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 229 units permitted in Custer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Custer County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,615 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,738
• List price: $129,500
• Delta: 2.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1652 Wood Lily Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (0%)	6mo	$135,500	$111	89
949 Ponderosa St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (0%)	5mo	$60,000	$49	57
923, Lot 5 Crook St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (0%)	19mo	$120,500	$99	48
25141 Harbach Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-13%)	5mo	$150,000	$142	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,554
• Equity at exit: $19,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,563
• Equity at exit: $11,197

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57730

• Home prices YoY: -20.4%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,591/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $232	+0% $195	+5% $158	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $142	+0% $195	+5% $248	+10% $301
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $228	base $195	+0.5pp $162	+1.0pp $127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,500 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,500 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,500 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,500 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,500 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,500 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $129,500 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,500 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,500 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,500 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,500 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 39 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,500 Active 38 DOM
19. 2026-04-23
    price $129,500 313-char remark
20. 2026-04-18
    listed $129,500,000 Active 313-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$105/yr (+$9/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$1,591
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,289
• − Management: −$1,289
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable income: $275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$66
• After-tax cash flow: $2,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, ready for immediate occupancy. Minor updates to exterior trim and interior could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and value
• Both Install new kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Install new kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Custer School District 16-1
• NCES district ID: 4616950
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,785
• Composite: 40.32/100
• National rank: #3750
• State rank: #37 of 59 in SD

Livability — Custer

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #3937

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Custer, SD
• Population (ZIP): 5,647

Population outlook (Custer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,045 people
• By 2030: 9,220 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 9,459 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 9,597 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 10,938 · +20.9%
• By 2100: 14,306 · +58.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Custer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.8) · D 26.1% · R 71.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -31.8pp · 2024: -45.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.8 2020: R+42.4 2016: R+46.0 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.26%
• Current HPI: 281.6391
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

-99.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $129,500 MRAOR
• 2026-04-18 Listed $129,500,000 MRAOR

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,591 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.